iPhone X being cancelled?

Rob Phillips

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Didn’t know criminals were out looking for notch sizes. And that phone won’t be worth much when it’s locked down.

You mean you’ve never had a stranger approach you and try to measure your notch?
 
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mogelijk

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I found this article on Cnet interesting. For most of the article they make it sound very doom and gloom, including with the Tweets and other ads for the article, such as this one: https://twitter.com/CNET/status/990959831984103424

Yet, then you get down to this nugget in the article: "Overall, analysts believe Apple sold 54 million iPhones in the March quarter, compared with 50.8 million a year ago." So, while it isn't great growth, Apple isn't really hurting. On top of that, what they don't typically report when talking about how horrible the iPhone X is selling, is that Samsung sales have been down since the S7 -- while the S9 is selling better than the S8, it is still much lower than the S7 sales were when it was new. The fact is, the market is maturing; there is less and less benefit to buying a new flagship phone every year.
 

bakron1

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I found this article on Cnet interesting. For most of the article they make it sound very doom and gloom, including with the Tweets and other ads for the article, such as this one: https://twitter.com/CNET/status/990959831984103424

Yet, then you get down to this nugget in the article: "Overall, analysts believe Apple sold 54 million iPhones in the March quarter, compared with 50.8 million a year ago." So, while it isn't great growth, Apple isn't really hurting. On top of that, what they don't typically report when talking about how horrible the iPhone X is selling, is that Samsung sales have been down since the S7 -- while the S9 is selling better than the S8, it is still much lower than the S7 sales were when it was new. The fact is, the market is maturing; there is less and less benefit to buying a new flagship phone every year.

I have always love these analyst who can destroy any company because they don’t meet their “so called” sales projections. I am a old school business person who was taught as long as you are making money and keeping your people employed, your doing just fine.

It’s just common sense that you can’t have positive growth year after year and that all consumer based business goes in cycles and your going to have your down periods.

Apple has made billions and billions for many years and what they really better be looking at is the current wage growth with the young buyers who can barley afford the basic essentials, let alone a thousand dollar phone, just my two cents worth.
 

doogald

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I have always love these analyst who can destroy any company because they don’t meet their “so called” sales projections. I am a old school business person who was taught as long as you are making money and keeping your people employed, your doing just fine.

Sure, but if you advised people to buy Apple stock at a particular price because you projected that revenue and profit growth would be A and B, in part because of the company's own guidance on their last quarterly statement, but it turns out that it will actually be A-X and B-Y, you would advise people that the stock was not as valuable as you thought it was and suggest selling (or buying at a lower price only.) That's all these analysts are doing. Stock prices are in part based on assumptions of future growth and performance, and if companies do not meet those assumptions, stock prices should go down. Right now analysts are trying to make educated guesses of performance so that they can either sell or buy (or advise clients to sell or buy) before everyone else learns the truth.
 

bakron1

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Sure, but if you advised people to buy Apple stock at a particular price because you projected that revenue and profit growth would be A and B, in part because of the company's own guidance on their last quarterly statement, but it turns out that it will actually be A-X and B-Y, you would advise people that the stock was not as valuable as you thought it was and suggest selling (or buying at a lower price only.) That's all these analysts are doing. Stock prices are in part based on assumptions of future growth and performance, and if companies do not meet those assumptions, stock prices should go down. Right now analysts are trying to make educated guesses of performance so that they can either sell or buy (or advise clients to sell or buy) before everyone else learns the truth.

As I said I am old school and when you have some analyst saying the company “should have” made 200 million and they only made a 150 million, then they lost 50 million, yeah right.

They still made 150 million on the books and then they devalue the company because they didn’t make their projections!!

I say take any of those people and give them a business they have to risk their own capital and worry how they are going to make a payroll and or where they next order is going to come from, 99% of them would fail.
 

doogald

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Sure, but my point is that people value the price of the stock in part on past results but also in part on future expectations. And, if the expectations turn out to be wrong, the stock price will go up or down accordingly. That’s the way it is.

Companies with little growth and solid returns are also valued, and also valued highly, but they are valued in a different way. And if Apple is transitioning from a growth company to a value company, the stock price will reflect that change.
 

bakron1

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Sure, but my point is that people value the price of the stock in part on past results but also in part on future expectations. And, if the expectations turn out to be wrong, the stock price will go up or down accordingly. That’s the way it is.

Companies with little growth and solid returns are also valued, and also valued highly, but they are valued in a different way. And if Apple is transitioning from a growth company to a value company, the stock price will reflect that change.

I don’t put much faith into any analyst or speculators, they don’t even use the most important fundamentals like PE ratios anymore and value companies based on faith and speculation.

Apple was probably one of the greatest investments in the last 25 years if you would have invested back in 1997 when the company was struggling to survive, but even then a lot of folks would have put their money into Microsoft or IBM rather then Apple who was a niche player back then.

Myself, I still kick myself in the behind for not buying a couple thousand shares of Apple back then when I had the capital to risk at the time, but everyone has their stories of what they should have done.

Now I am semi retired and don’t care about investing in the market anymore and would rather buy a car or something to flip rather then invest into a market which is controlled by day traders who most have no clue of the basic economic and investment fundamentals and rely on stock software trading programs to do their thinking for them, scary.
 

anony_mouse

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Hasn’t Apple cut production in half on almost all previous flagship iPhones during the 2nd quarter? I fail to see what the difference is here. I see the WSJ has caught on to the story which, to me, signals stock manipulation.

This is missing the point. Everybody knows the sales patterns for a new iPhone, and those are factored in by everyone involved. The point is that the iPhone 10 appears to have sold considerably less than expected - multiple sources suggest only 50-60% of expectations, and production is being cut back to this level, compared with previous plans. It may be that other iPhones are selling better than expected, so Apple may be increasing production of these models. Apple's results are due soon - we may get more information then, although Apple don't normally give sales figures for individual models.
 
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anony_mouse

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As I said I am old school and when you have some analyst saying the company “should have” made 200 million and they only made a 150 million, then they lost 50 million, yeah right.

They still made 150 million on the books and then they devalue the company because they didn’t make their projections!!

If a company doesn't meet sales expectations, of course that company is likely to see its stock price fall (I assume that's what you mean by "devalue"). What do you think the analysts should say? Do you seriously think that lower than expected sales should not generally have a negative effect on a company's stock price?

(of course things may be more nuanced than that, for example if profit margins increased despite lower sales, but you will understand the point I am making)
 

Rob Phillips

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Do you seriously think that lower than expected sales should not generally have a negative effect on a company's stock price?

Of course they should. Expectations bake themselves into stock prices throughout the quarter. When expectations aren’t met (i.e. sales fell 50 million units short) the company’s stock will naturally take a hit.

@bakron1, imagine you’re in sales and your boss sets a goal for you to sell 100 widgets in a month. At the end of the month you only sell 75 widgets. Maybe that’s a relatively good number because your colleagues only averaged 50 widgets but their goal was only 40 widgets a piece. They would be praised while you would likely be reprimanded for bad sales.
 

bakron1

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Of course they should. Expectations bake themselves into stock prices throughout the quarter. When expectations aren’t met (i.e. sales fell 50 million units short) the company’s stock will naturally take a hit.

@bakron1, imagine you’re in sales and your boss sets a goal for you to sell 100 widgets in a month. At the end of the month you only sell 75 widgets. Maybe that’s a relatively good number because your colleagues only averaged 50 widgets but their goal was only 40 widgets a piece. They would be praised while you would likely be reprimanded for bad sales.

I have been self employed for over 20 years and have used basic business principles and have done just fine. The problem with the business philosophy today is they think there should be growth every year and keep raising their sales projections.

Any person who has been in business a long time knows you CAN’T have growth year after year, not going to happen. I look at PE ratio and as long as I make a profit at the end of the year and my employees are happy, I am doing just fine.

As I said in my previous post, the market today is a joke. You have day traders who have no business, economic or stock fundamentals and are relying on some stock trading software to do their thinking for them, I prefer to use what god gave me between my ears.
 

anony_mouse

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I have been self employed for over 20 years and have used basic business principles and have done just fine. The problem with the business philosophy today is they think there should be growth every year and keep raising their sales projections.

Any person who has been in business a long time knows you CAN’T have growth year after year, not going to happen. I look at PE ratio and as long as I make a profit at the end of the year and my employees are happy, I am doing just fine.

As I said in my previous post, the market today is a joke. You have day traders who have no business, economic or stock fundamentals and are relying on some stock trading software to do their thinking for them, I prefer to use what god gave me between my ears.

What relevance does this have to the iPhone 10? Who exactly are you angry with??

If you are saying that Apple are not about to go bankrupt, you are right.
If you are saying that Apple's stock price should not be falling based on their lower than expected sales, I think you are wrong (although we should be prepared to revise our judgement when we see the actual numbers, of course).
 

Rob Phillips

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I have been self employed for over 20 years and have used basic business principles and have done just fine. The problem with the business philosophy today is they think there should be growth every year and keep raising their sales projections.

Any person who has been in business a long time knows you CAN’T have growth year after year, not going to happen. I look at PE ratio and as long as I make a profit at the end of the year and my employees are happy, I am doing just fine.

As I said in my previous post, the market today is a joke. You have day traders who have no business, economic or stock fundamentals and are relying on some stock trading software to do their thinking for them, I prefer to use what god gave me between my ears.

If only the stock market worked like a small business. We have companies with very high P/E ratios or like Tesla, who have operated at a huge loss since inception, who continue to appreciate in value.
Individual investors certainly move the market but most of the movement we see is from institutional investors. They have a much better handle on market fundamentals than most individuals ever will.