iPhone X being cancelled?

[bakron1]

What relevance does this have to the iPhone 10? Who exactly are you angry with??

If you are saying that Apple are not about to go bankrupt, you are right.
If you are saying that Apple's stock price should not be falling based on their lower than expected sales, I think you are wrong (although we should be prepared to revise our judgement when we see the actual numbers, of course).

I am not angry at anyone or anything and I was making a point. But, the bottom line is I have been buying and supporting Apple and it’s great products since our business switched from PC to Apple back in 2008 and I preach the brand wherever I go.

Just upgraded both of my iMac 27 5K and AirPort Extreme units ,to the latest models and our iPhones to the X, so I practice what I preach.

I will always have a soft spot for Blackberry and I also own a KeyOne which I switch back and forth between my iPhone X 256 silver model. I am just an old school person who has always believed in loyalty, treating people like I want to be treated and I am not changing anytime soon.

 

[anony_mouse]

I am not angry at anyone or anything and I was making a point. But, the bottom line is I have been buying and supporting Apple and it’s great products since our business switched from PC to Apple back in 2008 and I preach the brand wherever I go.

Just upgraded both of my iMac 27 5K and AirPort Extreme units ,to the latest models and our iPhones to the X, so I practice what I preach.

I will always have a soft spot for Blackberry and I also own a KeyOne which I switch back and forth between my iPhone X 256 silver model. I am just an old school person who has always believed in loyalty, treating people like I want to be treated and I am not charging anytime soon.

So is your point essentially that you like Apple products? I thought you had some interesting new theory on how a company should be valued on the stock market, but maybe I misunderstood.

 

[Sherry_B]

I am just an old school person who has always believed in loyalty, treating people like I want to be treated and I am not charging anytime soon.

I appreciate those values.

 

[doogald]

This is missing the point. Everybody knows the sales patterns for a new iPhone, and those are factored in by everyone involved. The point is that the iPhone 10 appears to have sold considerably less than expected - multiple sources suggest only 50-60% of expectations, and production is being cut back to this level, compared with previous plans. It may be that other iPhones are selling better than expected, so Apple may be increasing production of these models. Apple's results are due soon - we may get more information then, although Apple don't normally give sales figures for individual models.

"Customers chose iPhone X more than any other iPhone each week in the March quarter, just as they did following its launch in the December quarter."

Also, number of iPhones sold increased over previous year's quarter, and average price per iPhone increased.

That was a lot of noise about nothing. It sounds like parts suppliers didn't manage their expectations right if their results are worse.

 

[Just_Me_D]

This is missing the point. Everybody knows the sales patterns for a new iPhone, and those are factored in by everyone involved. The point is that the iPhone 10 appears to have sold considerably less than expected - multiple sources suggest only 50-60% of expectations, and production is being cut back to this level, compared with previous plans. It may be that other iPhones are selling better than expected, so Apple may be increasing production of these models. Apple's results are due soon - we may get more information then, although Apple don't normally give sales figures for individual models.

C'mon man. You can't say that everybody knows the sales pattern then turn right around and ignore the sales pattern because you're trying to prove that the iPhone X hasn't sold as well as expected. There are arguably 4 months left before Apple introduces the next iPhone lineup. FOUR months. That's it. If the iPhone X has consistently been the highest selling iPhone since release, and now only 4 months remain before the new flagship iPhone is introduced, prove to me that it's a flop or show me where the sale of the iPhone X didn't meet expectations. By the way, whose expectations are you referring to anyway?

 

[Frehley]

You mean you’ve never had a stranger approach you and try to measure your notch?

LOL!

 

[doogald]

If the iPhone X has consistently been the highest selling iPhone since release, and now only 4 months remain before the new flagship iPhone is introduced, prove to me that it's a flop or show me where the sale of the iPhone X didn't meet expectations. By the way, whose expectations are you referring to anyway?

So, I know where he's coming from. Let's say that Apple sold 20 million iPhone X units this quarter. It was the best selling model, and 20 million is a big number. But, here's the issue: Apple has to order parts from many suppliers, and has to give the suppliers enough time to manufacture the parts to get them into the assembly line at the right time. Apple has to plan on how many phones that they will sell. Some parts are iPhone X specific. If it turns out that Apple placed orders for parts with enough to make 25 million iPhone X this quarter, but they only needed parts for 20 million devices, that obviously leaves an excess of parts for 5 million iPhones in the supply chain.

So, the vendors, previously planning on their own for the following quarter, plan to run their factories to make enough parts for, say, 18 million iPhone X (because sales go down in the Apr-Jun quarter.) But Apple, knowing that they have enough parts already for 5 million phones, adjusts their part orders down, meaning that the vendors have excess inventory of their own, and also may have to idle their lines when they weren't expecting to.

It could be something like that. Apple sold a lot of iPhones. They sold more iPhone X than any other model. But if they sold fewer than they bought parts for, that could be what caused issues for their supplier partners.

Alternate story, though: Apple did mention that their market share went up this quarter (market share of all smartphones)? Isn't it possible that Apple did as well as expected (they did match their revenues and earnings guidance, as far as I recall, which some people didn't expect), but that all of the other competitors - Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola, et. al. - who also buy parts from these same suppliers - are the ones whose poor sales (they lost market share to Apple just as Apple does out with a $1000 phone that sells more than any other model) caused suppliers to have poor financials this quarter?

 

[Just_Me_D]

So, I know where he's coming from. Let's say that Apple sold 20 million iPhone X units this quarter. It was the best selling model, and 20 million is a big number. But, here's the issue: Apple has to order parts from many suppliers, and has to give the suppliers enough time to manufacture the parts to get them into the assembly line at the right time. Apple has to plan on how many phones that they will sell. Some parts are iPhone X specific. If it turns out that Apple placed orders for parts with enough to make 25 million iPhone X this quarter, but they only needed parts for 20 million devices, that obviously leaves an excess of parts for 5 million iPhones in the supply chain.

.Apple could still sell the device while advising customers of a later shipping date.

So, the vendors, previously planning on their own for the following quarter, plan to run their factories to make enough parts for, say, 18 million iPhone X (because sales go down in the Apr-Jun quarter.) But Apple, knowing that they have enough parts already for 5 million phones, adjusts their part orders down, meaning that the vendors have excess inventory of their own, and also may have to idle their lines when they weren't expecting to.

In theory, this could happen, but did it?

It could be something like that. Apple sold a lot of iPhones. They sold more iPhone X than any other model. But if they sold fewer than they bought parts for, that could be what caused issues for their supplier partners.

That is assuming the rumors were true.

Alternate story, though: Apple did mention that their market share went up this quarter (market share of all smartphones)? Isn't it possible that Apple did as well as expected (they did match their revenues and earnings guidance, as far as I recall, which some people didn't expect), but that all of the other competitors - Samsung, HTC, LG, Motorola, et. al. - who also buy parts from these same suppliers - are the ones whose poor sales (they lost market share to Apple just as Apple does out with a $1000 phone that sells more than any other model) caused suppliers to have poor financials this quarter?

it is indeed possible, if not probable, in my opinion...

 

[doogald]

.Apple could still sell the device while advising customers of a later shipping date.

Not quite sure what you’re saying. If parts suppliers were advised by Apple to make X parts, but Apple ended up buying X-Y and then said don’t expect as many parts purchases for the next quarter, that affects suppliers.

If you ran a business where a buyer said we want you to make 1 million widgets per week, but ended up buying 800,000 per week, then told you, well, from now on we only needed 700,000 per week going forward, but you had - that would affect your business.

That is assuming the rumors were true.

Poor performance for suppliers aren’t just rumors, they are reported quarterly results. And many aren’t exactly poor performance, just things like 5% growth when the supplier was expected to grow 10%.

 

[anony_mouse]

C'mon man. You can't say that everybody knows the sales pattern then turn right around and ignore the sales pattern because you're trying to prove that the iPhone X hasn't sold as well as expected. There are arguably 4 months left before Apple introduces the next iPhone lineup. FOUR months. That's it. If the iPhone X has consistently been the highest selling iPhone since release, and now only 4 months remain before the new flagship iPhone is introduced, prove to me that it's a flop or show me where the sale of the iPhone X didn't meet expectations. By the way, whose expectations are you referring to anyway?

Can I politely ask if you have actually read my posts? I ask because my point has nothing whatsoever to do with sales patterns. My point is about how the iPhone 10 has sold compared to expectations, and to be clear I mean Apple's expectations. Apple's product planners and Apple's purchasing department know the sales patterns of the iPhone very well even if people here do not.

We will probably never know how many iPhone 10s Apple expected to sell, and Apple don't normally tell us how many phones of a specific model they sell. So we may never have an official answer on whether Apple sold more or fewer iPhone 10s than expected.

However, for others (not Just_Me_D) who have blamed Apple's suppliers for having different expectations than Apple - please understand that this is simply not how things work. We do know via Apple's suppliers that they have been supplying fewer iPhone 10 components than those suppliers expected (seriously, check out their results). I have worked in the industry and I can tell you that a supplier will base their expectations for the sales of a component to a specific customer on what that customer tells them. They will not guess themselves. In fact, the supplier is in no position to guess the sales themselves. Apple will not reveal to their suppliers all the information needed to make a judgement on the likely sales of a specific model - e.g. what the price will be, when and where it will be launched, what other models will also be available, etc. Without this information, the supplier cannot make a useful prediction themselves.

Also consider that the price of a component will depend on how many a customer orders. A customer will typically pay less per component if they order 20 million of something compared to 10 million. Apple will also want the supplier to actually have the capacity to manufacture all the components ordered, so the supplier will have to reserve some portion of its output for Apple. Again, this information will have to come from Apple (or whoever else the customer is).

So please don't blame suppliers for making wrong assumptions. And yes I still understand that the iPhone 10 has sold fewer units than Apple expected, regardless of whether it was the top selling iPhone - which is anyway not that surprising even if the 10 sold below expectations, considering that there are two different versions of the 8 (i.e. 8 and 8+), two different versions of the 7, two different versions of the 6S, etc.

BTW, Apple also reported that they have much higher inventories than usual. Having too high inventories is very bad for a large manufacturer (believe me, I know this very well) and is something manufacturers try to avoid at all costs. This is interesting and suggests that in general Apple's sales are somewhat below their expectations. They don't break their inventory down into specific models so we don't know whether this specifically affects the 10.

 

[Darth-Vader]

I see the X in the wild fairly regularly, I know its a pricey phone, but it seems many people want it. I know my daughter has been bugging me to buy one for her, but there's no way I'm spending that kind of money for a teenager

 

[AmberDuffy]

The article is interesting ... Considering that I do not like the iPhone X, I will not worry much, and won`t speak in his defense. In my opinion, according to his presentation in the autumn, it was clear that the model was a failure. Plus, it did not call all the usual excitement, except at the beginning. Many believe that the 7th or 8th iPhone is the best value=money. Anyway, soon we will find out whether it is true or not.

 

[mogelijk]

The article is interesting ... Considering that I do not like the iPhone X, I will not worry much, and won`t speak in his defense.

I'm curious why you don't like the iPhone X?

In my opinion, according to his presentation in the autumn, it was clear that the model was a failure.

What presentation? When it was announced last September?

Plus, it did not call all the usual excitement, except at the beginning. Many believe that the 7th or 8th iPhone is the best value=money. Anyway, soon we will find out whether it is true or not.

I'll agree that many thought the iPhone X was too expensive. I also suspect that is one reason why the iPhone X will be "discontinued" when the new iPhone's are announced in September. Currently, it appears that Apple is attempting to make the iPhone X replacements less expensive, including buying the OLED displays from LG rather than Samsung.

As for finding out "whether it is true," again, I'm not sure what you are referring to. If you mean if the iPhone X is discontinued, then it likely is but rumors point to it being replaced by a similar phone, with the similar features, just at a lower price. Then it is also rumored there will be a Plus sized version, and a version that is inbetween the X and X Plus but even less expensive, with things like an LCD screen instead of OLED.

If you are talking about gestures and FaceID, then everything points to them remaining. The rumored new phones are still missing the home button and have the notch; and I've not seen any rumors of an update to the 8 or 8 Plus. I think it is also telling that Android P has moved to gestures.

 

[AmberDuffy]

I'm curious why you don't like the iPhone X?

I see your point, but I just don`t like it and that`s all. I like my iPhone 7 and for me it`s perfect) This is the matter of taste, I guess.

 

[PrincessB]

I wouldn’t be surprised is it was cancelled but not due to sales but rather because it’s a special edition, since it is the ten year anniversary phone.

 

[Closingracer]

It won’t be canceled. No company would put this much R&D to just cancel it. The X-2 will just be like any other upgrade. Just like how we went from an iPhone 7 to an 8 and so forth

 

[Rob Phillips]

It won’t be canceled. No company would put this much R&D to just cancel it. The X-2 will just be like any other upgrade. Just like how we went from an iPhone 7 to an 8 and so forth

I think the whole argument here is that Apple has always kept predecessor models around (you can still buy an iPhone 6s and 7 even though iPhone 8 is out, for example) but this is possibly not going to happen with whatever replaces iPhone X. People of course misconstrue this information to mean iPhone X is doomed and so Apple is killing it. Clearly that’s not the case. As you said, they’ll just replace with with a newer version.

 

[anony_mouse]

I think the whole argument here is that Apple has always kept predecessor models around (you can still buy an iPhone 6s and 7 even though iPhone 8 is out, for example) but this is possibly not going to happen with whatever replaces iPhone X. People of course misconstrue this information to mean iPhone X is doomed and so Apple is killing it. Clearly that’s not the case. As you said, they’ll just replace with with a newer version.

Not always - the iPhone 5 was cancelled immediately when the 5S was launched, probably because the 5 lacked proper 4G support.

 

[Rob Phillips]

Not always - the iPhone 5 was cancelled immediately when the 5S was launched, probably because the 5 lacked proper 4G support.

Thank you for fact checking me. The point of my post remains the same.

 

[mogelijk]

I think the whole argument here is that Apple has always kept predecessor models around (you can still buy an iPhone 6s and 7 even though iPhone 8 is out, for example) but this is possibly not going to happen with whatever replaces iPhone X. People of course misconstrue this information to mean iPhone X is doomed and so Apple is killing it. Clearly that’s not the case. As you said, they’ll just replace with with a newer version.

It is true that Apple typically kept the previous years flagship and sold it at a lower price. As pointed out, the iPhone 5 was one example where Apple didn't -- and instead offered a different "low cost" option rather than continuing to sell the older phone (the 5c).

My impression is that the X replacement is going to be priced somewhat lower than the X; my guess is $100 less, or so. The rumors, at least that I've seen, seem to imply that the X Plus (the new larger OLED iPhone) will be roughly the price of the current X, that the X replacement will be $100 or so cheaper. Because of this, it doesn't make sense for Apple to continue to sell the X -- since the old phones are typically only $100 off, meaning the X and the new iPhone would sell for essentially the same price. Instead, they'll have an LCD version of the X that will become the new "budget" phone.

We know one of the ways the new iPhone will be less expensive is that they'll have LG panels instead of Samsung panels. I also wonder if they won't have an aluminum body, rather than the Stainless Steel of the X. And the Face ID technology should now be cheaper, now that it is a year old, than it was for the X.

My issue with these iPhone X being "cancelled" or "killed" stories is that they largely came out in February and early March, along with the articles about how disappointing iPhone X sales had been. The clear implication that these "experts" seemed to be painting is that Apple was going to kill the iPhone X because it had been such a disappointment; again with the implication that it would be replaced by a new design, likely bringing back a fingerprint reader and home button, not to mention the notch (though they never explicitly stated these things, but again, they were implying the iPhone X was a failure).

Of course, since February we've seen a number of new phones announced with notches (including rumors of Google's own Pixel 3) and we're seeing Android P will include gestures without having/needing a physical home button (and most Android phones, while they still have a fingerprint sensor, aren't using that as their home button).

To me, the idea that Apple is cancelling the iPhone X is debunked. Yes, it will be replaced as, from what I can tell, economically it won't be practical for Apple to offer it at a lower price than its replacement. Instead, they're keeping the features of the X (even the controversial ones), and offering a direct replacement that appears to look the same (or extremely similar), along with a larger version and a "cheap" version that uses an LCD display.