I think we've seen that consumers have different expectations. The first were the bleeding edge types. I owned a Pebble, and the first Apple Watch. A lot of people weren't ready.
Then with the S2, a LOT of people started buying AWs. I think it was because of the GPS and waterproofing. Some of the light shone on the S1 and that piqued interest.
I don't know what went on with other brands of smartwatches.
But I think the smartwatch is as much a fad as windshield wipers and power windows. Some people use the utility of the former. Others, maybe passed on the latter when they first came out. But cranking gets old.
Smartphones are a pretty mature product with much utility and convenience appreciated by everyone. A lot of those people don't wear watches at all, and have little need for an accessory/extension.
As the Watch matures, it'll see some deeper market penetration, but not the level of saturation of phones. Certain watch segments will be saturated given the state-of-the-watch. As that improves, other segments will see growth.
Grandpa may use an iPad, but it will be a half-generation or so before the smartwatch is ubiquitous, like phones. A fad? I don't think so.
But who knows what digital wonders someone born today will see, in their lifetime.
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