(iPad mini found new from a department store) “That's only £20 more than the Apple refurb, and it's a new device. Personally, I would always buy new.”
That’s your choice. I worked at Apple refurb though years back. Chances are good you are getting virtually new for products that are under 18 months. Apple Refurb gives you the full year warranty and AC+ options on new-ish products like this.
I’ll bet the refurb and new have the same future failure rate as well as the same long lifespan that’ll last longer than I need (I’ll upgrade before obsolescence).