Google gives iPhone owners up to $750 off a Pixel 7 if they switch

Up_And_Away

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Google should offer more. They’ll be getting years of your behavior recorded and put into the big data machine. That’s the cash gift that keeps on giving every month.
FFR I believed said pixel 6 selling in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 million. Reports claim Google is ordering a 10 million build on pixel 7s for the coming year (though I believe that’s what they said last year). They’ve got a good start though, Google YouTube Tech channels mostly love the Pixel every year. And their current love affair with Samsung folds is fizzling.
Anyway, I think Google could buy up to 100k IPhone users. Happy days for Google :)
 

FFR

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Not surprised at all, even google admits iPhones are worth more than their own pixels.
 

FFR

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Google should offer more. They’ll be getting years of your behavior recorded and put into the big data machine. That’s the cash gift that keeps on giving every month.
FFR I believed said pixel 6 selling in the neighborhood of 5 to 6 million. Reports claim Google is ordering a 10 million build on pixel 7s for the coming year (though I believe that’s what they said last year). They’ve got a good start though, Google YouTube Tech channels mostly love the Pixel every year. And their current love affair with Samsung folds is fizzling.
Anyway, I think Google could buy up to 100k IPhone users. Happy days for Google :)

Google hit a wall with sales capping out at 4.5 million a year, and are launching in 13 new countries this year.

Don’t think that will help much after all the issues they had with the pixel 6 and 6p, pre-order sales appear to have fizzled.

Talking about fizzling , Samsung is in deep trouble this quarter since foldables sales have apparently collapsed taking 30% of their operating profit with it.

8c75abd9cd10fd283772bbf4b0d637c9.png



It turns out the iPhone 14 pro and 14 pro max are more popular in Korea than Samsung foldables. The next three months is going to be very painful for Samsung and googles mobile divisions.
.

2287ce1623a333c4f8a280becb599888.png
 

imwjl

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It might appeal to people just into phones who switch. In my work world we have around 200 devices mix of Android and Apple in MDM. My assistant works at the Windows/Android integration. Apple remains ahead.

I have same generation/age M Air and Surface Laptop to show another matter. After the lack of elegant device integration, the non-Apple stuff is battery burning and expensive if you compare first tier hardware.
 

Up_And_Away

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I saw that report. Some media said Samsung’s smartphone business will grow a couple percent. I guess we’ll see on that. But your underlying point (this and other posts) I think is probable. Samsung sells more smartphones than any other company in the world but their net income from it is proportionally starkly small. A research firm said last quarter’s global smartphone net income was 80% Apple. That’s 20% left for a half a dozen companies. People may not know or like this but net income is generally among the best if not the best indicator of how healthy a company, or a company’s major division, is. Many companies can gain market but ultimately it’ll be transitory if their cost to do business is closely equal to their revenue.
While Apple is nibbling away at premium market share, Samsung’s issue is also definitely intra-Android related. They have multiple Chinese smartphone makers who are and continue to cause downward pricing pressure further hurting their net income opportunity. They’re selling at nearly cost but continue to get gnawed at on both ends.
We’ll see if Folds bring their net income upward. Imho that possibility is likely DOA but nothing is certain. But in a bit of hysterical irony, the best help, and possibly only help, Samsung Folds can get is if Apple releases a Fold which is adopted by a substantial part of the Apple user base. Samsung could probably help their Folds sell a lot more by the ad slogan “Buy a Samsung Fold because Apple will release a Fold very soon” :)
 

FFR

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I believe you might have misconstrued my post. That was not an analysts projection, Samsung on Friday reported a 32% drop in operating income or profit for q3, and its pretty bad.

According to the report Samsung mobiles marketshare fell 5% in the 3rd quarter, it’s definitely not up “ a couple of percent.” That’s absolutely terrible when you take into consideration that Samsung was giving a 50% promotion off the fold and a 90% off the flip.

According to this report the fold and flip have flopped

8ab0aae7fda2047cdc1ca80a85197fd6.jpg


Samsung blamed the economy and inflation on the lack of demand. But apple Foxconn tsmc all have had a blowout quarter.

You mentioned apple nibbling on the premium market, I’m afraid they gobbled it up.


Edit:
It seems Samsung divisons aren’t communicating with each other any more.
9aa4727129040ea04befd4f07990ecd3.jpg
 
Last edited:

Up_And_Away

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I believe you might have misconstrued my post. That was not an analysts projection, Samsung on Friday reported a 32% drop in operating income or profit for q3, and its pretty bad.

According to the report Samsung mobiles marketshare fell 5% in the 3rd quarter, it’s definitely not up “ a couple of percent.” That’s absolutely terrible when you take into consideration that Samsung was giving a 50% promotion off the fold and a 90% off the flip.

According to this report the fold and flip have flopped

8ab0aae7fda2047cdc1ca80a85197fd6.jpg


Samsung blamed the economy and inflation on the lack of demand. But apple Foxconn tsmc all have had a blowout quarter.

You mentioned apple nibbling on the premium market, I’m afraid they gobbled it up.


Edit:
It seems Samsung divisons aren’t communicating with each other any more.
9aa4727129040ea04befd4f07990ecd3.jpg

FFR, you da man! (Or da woman - whichever the case :) ). You are on top of smartphone insider business. If this isn’t divulging anything, you work in the industry?

Where I had read Samsung’s smartphone business would be “up a few percent” was on ZDNews, reported Friday. This is what they said “However, Samsung's mobile business is expected to have seen quarter-to-quarter growth thanks to the launch of new foldable phones.”
Samsung did release guidance though it lacked smartphone detail. On the same day this was reported elsewhere:
“An analyst at Daol Investment & Securities, estimates that Samsung's smartphone shipments dropped 11% in the quarter from the same period a year earlier to about 62.6 million smartphones after distribution channels cut orders.”

That does not mean smartphone revenue dropped for certain thought it is almost certainly — likely near double digits. The full Samsung ER will be later in the month which will definitively answer the question. But it is worth noting there were multiple sites mentioning the Fold sale’s price has raised the average selling price (ASP) compared to the same quarter last year. This could offset the lower shipments, at least theoretically. For comparison, I suspect (IMHO) Apple may see iPhone shipment decline a bit but I believe revenue growth will increase thanks to the ASPs: more 14 Pro buyers as well as 14 Plus being a bigger ASP than last year’s 13 Mini. (noting the comical dig at Samsung: Samsung has to heavily discount for premium sales while Apple doesn’t have to)

Where did you see Apple is gobbling up premium market share? That I can’t find.

One last comical dig: There is a potential bright spot for Samsung, the display business. This media is crediting that to Apple’s iPhone 14 sales (Samsung makes the displays). Samsung during their ER is going to say “due to smartphone success, specifically iPhones, our other declines were partially offset by our display business. Thank you Apple” :)
 

FFR

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Thank you. I’m happily retired, I started off as an analyst at a private bank, then VC and PE. I can’t count the number of employees and engineers we met with from Siemens, Nokia, Samsung, apple, microsoft, google, vertu, lg, blackberry, and Sony etc. I also spent time in the automotive, hospitality, watchmaking, and fashion industries.

I have been following and researching the mobile industry and palmtop computing space since the nineties.

When it comes to Samsung projections and estimates, I would proceed cautiously. They were caught falsely inflating thier galaxy smartphone and tablet figures during the apple trial. Samsungs asp is pretty low as is, between 185 and 250 dollars, a couple hundred thousand fold and flips won’t really move that’s needle.

Conversely apples asp will indeed be higher but that might be offset by the 11% increase to the BOM for the iPhone 14 pro series compared to the 13 pro. Indeed, depending on sales the plus will have a positive impact on asp compared to the mini . We should know more in a couple of weeks.

Keep in mind Samsung has to pay for the discounts themselves not to mention the display replacements which would heavily eat into their profits.

Samsung display is definitely happy manufacturing in volume oled displays designed and engineered by apple. Apparently samsung display doesn’t like selling displays to Samsung mobile because they demand a deep discount and prefer dealing with apple. You can’t make this stuff up.

e15f9fe02ba4bc1c8bb05881643b3f5e.jpg



If you want to read it, It’s in Korean though.
https://biz.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2020/12/24/2020122402734.html


Here is apple gobbling up the premium market.


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It’s been a tough year for Samsung mobile. Even tougher when it comes to profits
2e7771bc126809cd26f5a10fd18a9f9f.jpg


Here is the chart from the article, nearly a 70% difference .

3ba0d64f21bb5a450170f94bfef815e3.jpg
 
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Up_And_Away

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Oh snap! :) more great research. Thanks for the background information. I assume you are an investor in Apple? On my short term I bailed out of Apple at low 170s several months ago. I have been sitting on the sideline thinking I can get back in cheaply (I should have at 130 but the market has me nervous). Of course the game if sitting on the sideline to get it cheap is a road littered with those who missed on the next big leg up.

Huh, so while "premium" smartphone raw numbers sold (the media's favorite: "share of the smartphone user market") suggest Apple has been a bit trending upward, in reality for Samsung to even hold that caving line they are having to, in effect, buy sales. That's ugly, once that cat is out of the bag it isn't easy to take it back in without losing sales.

Great info on Samsung's inner workings. It always puzzled me a bit how a huge chip design and maker would be outsourcing their nearly 1/4 billion sold smartphone' SOCs to Qualcomm especially when the smartphone business gold standard, Apple, shows them the way with customization (one reason I believe Apple will be taking it to the next level in the coming years). I had always assumed Samsung in some odd way saw it as cheaper and easier to go Qualcomm. But your info points more to a corporate culture where the left and right hand are actively slapping each other. It just has to sting a bit for their profitable division, displays, to be the result of the company, Apple, that is eating their breakfast, lunch and dinner in the smartphone business. Then consider if Apple goes with Samsung for SOCs (as was suggested in media). Obviously Samsung the chip division would do cartwheels down the street getting that business but from the the next level up, corporate, it just has to sting.
 

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