I was watching some Wall Street news videos. The “guru” of valuations said something that many don’t know. The Streaming business model is currently out of wack. Netflix is the outlier because it makes a profit but he’s dubious of even them sustaining it. Prime, Disney, HBO, Google, Apple and probably every Streamer out there is losing money(when the totality of their streaming services revenue is added up). The model is currently based on ever growing subscription numbers getting high enough to pass the revenue break even point. But 2022 showed full paying subscriber numbers ever increasing is dubious. (Don’t be fooled by numbers up based on free lengthy trials).
Prices must come up, consolidation is likely going to happen, content will likely become more focused, “free” ad supported tiers will become awash in ads, and slipping in advertisements for big name content.
Apple and Google can take an on going billion dollar loss indefinitely (though not happily). So can Amazon though it has high debt, as does Apple, but cash flow 75% below Apple’s. Disney can but it’ll be much much more painful for them with debt well above cash flow. The rest really can’t and will merge, be bought, or figure out a different model.