Android to Apple

[EdwinG]

From the Samsung breach, apparently this user had his back account compromised. That’s pretty messed up on Samsungs part, but not as shocking as their new privacy policy where they outline how they collect, sell and share user data that include users biometrics, photos, and texts. Completely daft.

https://reddit.com/r/Android/comments/xtq9pq/samsungs_privacy_policy_for_oct_1st_is_crazy/

Samsung actually giving google a run for their money on user data collection.

That's absolutely insane.

Then again, a bank (that titles itself as a credit union) was compromised around here - by one of their employees at the time.

Not sure I would trust either with my personal information at this point.

 

[mach1man]

Just found out how many pixels google has sold since launching in 2016.

4.6 million per year or 1.1 million a quarter for the three annual pixel models. Ouch

It’s FFR and Apple . I’ll see myself out now

 

[FFR]

That's absolutely insane.

Then again, a bank (that titles itself as a credit union) was compromised around here - by one of their employees at the time.

Not sure I would trust either with my personal information at this point.

I feel pity for that Samsung user. After having his banking information comprised in the Samsung breach, Samsung failed to disclose to its users about the financial comprise for months. That’s not right.

But I guess Samsungs behavior is starting to catch up with its financials. 2022 has been particularly rough with operating profits in q3 falling 32%. I guess s22 series and and the foldables have completely flopped.

 

[FFR]

It’s FFR and Apple . I’ll see myself out now

You should read Samsungs new privacy policy before you leave. As a dedicated and fervent Samsung and Pixel user, it makes your post look unintentionally ironic.

https://reddit.com/r/Android/comments/xtq9pq/samsungs_privacy_policy_for_oct_1st_is_crazy/

 

[chezm]

There’s no reason Apple should be forced to concede use RCS for Google and Android…if that’s their back pocket secret weapon for their products to win customers over, it’s a strategy. I’m not saying this as an Apple user but as fair game unbiased opinion on product ownership and optimization of multiple product devices in a catalogue to communicate

 

[FFR]

This gif says it all
https://twitter.com/moto760/status/1579613427085225984?s=46&t=ojbdlEjyHIoyeFgERYZ-4A

 

[kataran]

You need to add to that all the Fold 3 sales as well, since it competes with S22 for the "s pen fans" market. Oh, and Note 20 sales as well, since it is still being sold all over the world and, too, competes for the same market.

I'm not saying everybody loves and needs s pen. I know I cannot live without it and if somebody else agree or disagree doesn't matter much to me, frankly. But to make your assumption I think some more numbers are needed.

That said... Yes, iPhone is the best selling single smartphone line in the world. Deserved, o have to say. Indeed, my two iPhones agree with that, as my Fold 3, too

Before I became a Palm Pre fanboy I rocked an HTC Mogul 6800 Win phone with a stylus and I became addicted to using it. I tapped a thousand posts on a motorcycle forum in a little under two months with it

I can see how people can love a Stylus

iPhone user since the i5 and now I could never see myself using one.

 

[FFR]

Ouch

 

[Up_And_Away]

On one of the last couple iMore podcasts it was brought up that with the way Apple adopts features that it’s almost like Apple treats Android like it’s Apple’s beta program. They see what works and what doesn’t and then implements it better.

Definitely made me a convert.

I think there is some truth to this though certainly not entirely. Apple is so highly copied they have to keep their secrets closer than the CIA. But I agree that Android throws it all against the wall, then Apple adopts a few on the wall, Android races to copy Apple’s implementation. Side note, Apple definitely puts in its own new features if/when they can keep it secret.

While there is the overall smartphone market, it quickly breaks down into two major sub markets: Android and Apple. These two markets have differing dynamics and definitely do not operate the same. That’s in large part because Apple is a highly focused corporate entity. The number of their offerings are tiny relative to their revenue. And they rarely exist in any high volume low budget markets. And critically, they give tremendous power to the UI team and an overall strategy that focuses on a stubbornly precise ecosystem. That UI team, it either gives its seal of approval or it gets pushed back to development. As such, Apple usually does not release features that do not make a tangible impact (thanks to the UI team). When they do release the feature, the UI team has tested it 700 ways to Sunday which ultimately makes for the best implementation of the feature. This is another big and critical element of Apple: their name is also part of their product. They guard that name rabidly both in media and in their highly limited product offering that is near it best in class.

This is in pretty stark contrast to the Android market. Android makers almost have to operate on new marketing splash feature and YouTube tech channels being in a tizzy. Android makers are in a race to be able to say, as an ad absurdum example, 500 megapixel camera! 1000 hz refresh rate display!
Features often uncomfortably close to having no tangible value to the user, or feature clearly not ready. Yet this ‘almost useless but great marketing feature’ is becoming almost critical for success of one Android maker over another. This also, in part, leads to feature code overload. And it answers the question why even a Google Pixel that runs stock Google Android can’t come close to Apple’s OS support longevity. Plus this market has almost all of them operate in the budget market. There’s nothing wrong whatsoever with the budget market, however, that can’t help but change corporate culture. Add in almost all try to offer 50 different models as well as try to expand into further flung new product categories. It is clear the Apple market and the Android market are operating under substantially different dynamics.

Now for the headline paragraph: Shocking Secret Revealed! Apple Has Won The Smartphone Market!
Stick a fork in the smartphone market, it’s done (for the next several years). Apple is on stage holding the trophy saying “they love me, they really love me” .
-5 2022 flagships, all with 4800 to 5000 Ma batteries except iPhone 14 PM which has less than 4200 Ma. Smaller battery 14 PM doesn’t walk away with it, it sprints away with longest battery life win.
-5 2022 flagships, processing power. Apple A16 embarrasses the very latest snapdragon
- Os support longevity, device longevity as rated by resale value, security, ease of use, app support etc etc. Apple wins.
-profitability, Apple wins by 70 country miles

 

[Up_And_Away]

It’s FFR and Apple ??????????????????. I’ll see myself out now

Can’t stand the heat, stay out of the kitchen. Hey, you don’t like or use Apple? That’s your choice. This Apple user says buh bye. Google’s apple is there for you to polish with that extra elbow grease I’m sure you’d put in.
FYI, the smarmy pic is no reflection on FFR, it is only on you. Your dislike of Apple clearly makes you refuse to see data and instead go with a typically rage ad hominem. It’s called winning, you and yours ain’t right now and it infuriates you.
Q4 iPhone 10% up Year over Year. How’d your guys do with the admitted heavy discounting? Ahem, again it’s called winning. Buckle your safety belt, you’re not going to like the coming ride.

 

[FFR]

I think there is some truth to this though certainly not entirely. Apple is so highly copied they have to keep their secrets closer than the CIA. But I agree that Android throws it all against the wall, then Apple adopts a few on the wall, Android races to copy Apple’s implementation. Side note, Apple definitely puts in its own new features if/when they can keep it secret.

While there is the overall smartphone market, it quickly breaks down into two major sub markets: Android and Apple. These two markets have differing dynamics and definitely do not operate the same. That’s in large part because Apple is a highly focused corporate entity. The number of their offerings are tiny relative to their revenue. And they rarely exist in any high volume low budget markets. And critically, they give tremendous power to the UI team and an overall strategy that focuses on a stubbornly precise ecosystem. That UI team, it either gives its seal of approval or it gets pushed back to development. As such, Apple usually does not release features that do not make a tangible impact (thanks to the UI team). When they do release the feature, the UI team has tested it 700 ways to Sunday which ultimately makes for the best implementation of the feature. This is another big and critical element of Apple: their name is also part of their product. They guard that name rabidly both in media and in their highly limited product offering that is near it best in class.

This is in pretty stark contrast to the Android market. Android makers almost have to operate on new marketing splash feature and YouTube tech channels being in a tizzy. Android makers are in a race to be able to say, as an ad absurdum example, 500 megapixel camera! 1000 hz refresh rate display!
Features often uncomfortably close to having no tangible value to the user, or feature clearly not ready. Yet this ‘almost useless but great marketing feature’ is becoming almost critical for success of one Android maker over another. This also, in part, leads to feature code overload. And it answers the question why even a Google Pixel that runs stock Google Android can’t come close to Apple’s OS support longevity. Plus this market has almost all of them operate in the budget market. There’s nothing wrong whatsoever with the budget market, however, that can’t help but change corporate culture. Add in almost all try to offer 50 different models as well as try to expand into further flung new product categories. It is clear the Apple market and the Android market are operating under substantially different dynamics.

Now for the headline paragraph: Shocking Secret Revealed! Apple Has Won The Smartphone Market!
Stick a fork in the smartphone market, it’s done (for the next several years). Apple is on stage holding the trophy saying “they love me, they really love me” .
-5 2022 flagships, all with 4800 to 5000 Ma batteries except iPhone 14 PM which has less than 4200 Ma. Smaller battery 14 PM doesn’t walk away with it, it sprints away with longest battery life win.
-5 2022 flagships, processing power. Apple A16 embarrasses the very latest snapdragon
- Os support longevity, device longevity as rated by resale value, security, ease of use, app support etc etc. Apple wins.
-profitability, Apple wins by 70 country miles

There has been plenty of instances of android oems copying apples rumors as well .

Here is the next example:

 

[Up_And_Away]

There has been plenty of instances of android oems copying apples rumors as well .

Here is the next example:

Don’t get my original post wrong, no doubt Apple comes up with new features. Recently, as one example, Dynamic island. I use it and am looking forward to more apps using it. But to emphasize the secrecy needed else Apple’s new feature won’t be a “new” feature, Dynamic Island was trademarked by Apple in Jamaica. The Jamaican patent office only allows on site review of patents, not online. Google and Samsung phones don’t need to go through that secrecy, nobody is looking to copy them on the spot. Almost anything Apple does will be quickly copied by knockoffs, quickly. If what Apple does isn’t kept secret and becomes known early enough before Apple’s release of the product, knocks offs and even bigger names (Samsung) will try to get something to market beforehand. Ultimately it makes sense for some Apple features not to be rushed. As the market for Android is now, it’s a business need to get new features (worthy and worthless) out ASAP. On that front it is Apple’s gain.

But no doubt, none, Apple is by far the smartphone standard setter. If Apple does it then very likely it will be adopted by Android makers. That’s part of what I was mentioning before: Apple has already won this game (at least for the next several years). Smartphones that function better due to custom parts that generate greater gross profit, a smartphone thar sets the standard in the market. What Android maker is anywhere even remotely close to that?

 

[FFR]

Don’t get my original post wrong, no doubt Apple comes up with new features. Recently, as one example, Dynamic island. I use it and am looking forward to more apps using it. But to emphasize the secrecy needed else Apple’s new feature won’t be a “new” feature, Dynamic Island was trademarked by Apple in Jamaica. The Jamaican patent office only allows on site review of patents, not online. Google and Samsung phones don’t need to go through that secrecy, nobody is looking to copy them on the spot. Almost anything Apple does will be quickly copied by knockoffs, quickly. If what Apple does isn’t kept secret and becomes known early enough before Apple’s release of the product, knocks offs and even bigger names (Samsung) will try to get something to market beforehand. Ultimately it makes sense for some Apple features not to be rushed. As the market for Android is now, it’s a business need to get new features (worthy and worthless) out ASAP. On that front it is Apple’s gain.

But no doubt, none, Apple is by far the smartphone standard setter. If Apple does it then very likely it will be adopted by Android makers. That’s part of what I was mentioning before: Apple has already won this game (at least for the next several years). Smartphones that function better due to custom parts that generate greater gross profit, a smartphone thar sets the standard in the market. What Android maker is anywhere even remotely close to that?

Absolutely None.
And the more android oems copy the iPhone the easier it makes it for their users to abandon android and switch over to an iPhone.

I’m honestly starting to feel bad for Samsung because the amount of Samsung users switching to 14 pro is absolutely ridiculous.

Another long time Samsung user switches to an iPhone 14 pro, the reason iMessage .
https://youtu.be/CMvVnAq6HQQ

 

[Up_And_Away]

Absolutely None.
And the more android oems copy the iPhone the easier it makes it for their users to abandon android and switch over to an iPhone.

I’m honestly starting to feel bad for Samsung because the amount of Samsung users switching to 14 pro is absolutely ridiculous.

Another long time Samsung user switches to an iPhone 14 pro, the reason iMessage .
https://youtu.be/CMvVnAq6HQQ

Nice!
It is universally believed that now even Apple's iPhone will see sagging revenue during the late January earnings report. So if iPhone hitting the expected revenue mark, much less going over it, this may be the biggest Android premium warning flag ever raised.
I strongly suspect this will happen.
As I mentioned in the other post, Apple has won the premium market. The competition is about who comes in the absurdly distant second.

 

[FFR]

Nice!
It is universally believed that now even Apple's iPhone will see sagging revenue during the late January earnings report. So if iPhone hitting the expected revenue mark, much less going over it, this may be the biggest Android premium warning flag ever raised.
I strongly suspect this will happen.
As I mentioned in the other post, Apple has won the premium market. The competition is about who comes in the absurdly distant second.

Do you mean apple q1 that consists of October, November, and December? .
I don’t see that happening in the Christmas quarter for apple or the iPhone, demand for iPhone 14 pro and pro max is still quite high.

But bear in mind Qualcomm has forecasted a hit in smartphone sales for their snapdragon soc due to lack of demand. This is really bad for android.

Indeed apple has not only won the premium market and has completely dominated the ultra premium market. But now we are starting to see apple gain the majority marketshare in developed markets, such as the US, Uk, Japan, and Australia.

I don’t think there is any competition anymore from Samsung in the premium and ultra premium market. Their premium sales have been deteriorating over the past 4 years.

This is a sales chart of galaxy s, note, fold, flips, and iPhone.

 

[Up_And_Away]

Do you mean apple q1 that consists of October, November, and December? .
I don’t see that happening in the Christmas quarter for apple or the iPhone, demand for iPhone 14 pro and pro max is still quite high.

But bear in mind Qualcomm has forecasted a hit in smartphone sales for their snapdragon soc due to lack of demand. This is really bad for android.

//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221103/210851bf671a7dbaf5924547f35c0b74.png


Indeed apple has not only won the premium market and has completely dominated the ultra premium market. But now we are starting to see apple gain the majority marketshare in developed markets, such as the US, Uk, Japan, and Australia.

I don’t think there is any competition anymore from Samsung in the premium and ultra premium market. Their premium sales have been deteriorating over the past 4 years.

This is a sales chart of galaxy s, note, fold, flips, and iPhone.

//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221103/42cacfdb251fdc2d44ef744a0df0da69.png

A big thanks FFR, your responses allow me to talk earnings performance (stock). It’s a subject I’m enthusiastic about .
On your chart, that’s a depressing performance for non Apple. Samsung S20-S21-S22 as well as the others, a pure downward trend line. Ouch.

Yes I am talking about Apple’s upcoming fiscal 2023 Q1 (the holiday quarter). But that conversation starts with noting fiscal 2022 Q1 was an atomic explosion performance. Probably the greatest quarter in corporate history. But this makes for tough YoY comparisons. 2022 Q1 iPhone revenue: 71.5 Billion. Wow, To get just 5% growth means 75.5 Billion for this Q1.
I’m not saying that can’t be done but given the economic headwinds, i think a 0% to 2% would be realistic. That would be another giant leap away from Samsung (as Samsung bleeds premium and ultra premium sales, Apple still gains). The shopping season is 1 week longer, the 14+ didn’t come online until Q1, and we know 14 Pro/Pro Max was supply constrained but these orders will catch up in Q1.

FWIW, here’s what is needs to be beat for this quarter:
iPhone 71.5 billion (??)
Services 19.5 billion (beat)
Hearables-Wearables-other 14.7 billion (??)
Mac 10.8 billion (??)
IPad 7.2 Billion (beat)

 

[FFR]

A big thanks FFR, your responses allow me to talk earnings performance (stock). It’s a subject I’m enthusiastic about .
On your chart, that’s a depressing performance for non Apple. Samsung S20-S21-S22 as well as the others, a pure downward trend line. Ouch.

Yes I am talking about Apple’s upcoming fiscal 2023 Q1 (the holiday quarter). But that conversation starts with noting fiscal 2022 Q1 was an atomic explosion performance. Probably the greatest quarter in corporate history. But this makes for tough YoY comparisons. 2022 Q1 iPhone revenue: 71.5 Billion. Wow, To get just 5% growth means 75.5 Billion for this Q1.
I’m not saying that can’t be done but given the economic headwinds, i think a 0% to 2% would be realistic. That would be another giant leap away from Samsung (as Samsung bleeds premium and ultra premium sales, Apple still gains). The shopping season is 1 week longer, the 14+ didn’t come online until Q1, and we know 14 Pro/Pro Max was supply constrained but these orders will catch up in Q1.

FWIW, here’s what is needs to be beat for this quarter:
iPhone 71.5 billion (??)
Services 19.5 billion (beat)
Hearables-Wearables-other 14.7 billion (??)
Mac 10.8 billion (??)
IPad 7.2 Billion (beat)

During the holiday quarter, I have no doubt apple is going to beat expectations. I expect services, wearables and iPads will be up.

Not expecting much from the mac, but iPhones might beat expectations, especially since the higher priced iPhone pro series is still completely sold out. Global demand has completely outstripped supply.

Here is how apple did in Southeast Asia during q3. Once more apple seems to be eating away at Samsungs marketshare.

 

[Up_And_Away]

During the holiday quarter, I have no doubt apple is going to beat expectations. I expect services, wearables and iPads will be up.

Not expecting much from the mac, but iPhones might beat expectations, especially since the higher priced iPhone pro series is still completely sold out. Global demand has completely outstripped supply.

Here is how apple did in Southeast Asia during q3. Once more apple seems to be eating away at Samsungs marketshare.

//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221117/378779f9c348449bbe4c50b8f03f0202.png
//uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20221117/c444808616820adacb5a418b8c10c6b5.png

That's amazing for Southeast Asia. It would seem like this is fertile territory for Apple/Iphone. Apple the brandname and its reputation for quality sells itself. Low marketshare give it a lot of upside. It also doesn't hurt that Apple is spreading around of its manufacturing. Part of the game is the round about government placating.
-IMHO Foxconn issues probably will cause iPhone to be flat. The previous Q1 of nearly 72B. That's a titanic YoY comp to beat.
-On Mac, Apple Silicon performance was incredible but the overall desktop/laptop market has softened too much to expect even YoY flat. In this category I think it'll be all about how little (or a lot) the YoY decline from 10.7 billion is as compared to industry competitors.
-The services side is about how much the growth is. Last quarter's 5% was substantially slower. I do believe higher single digits is likely.
-I am less optimistic about iPad. I think there will be YoY decline. But it'll be close.
-14.7 Billion wearables-hearables-other. This is another staggering 3 month number. But IMHO this is my guess for a beat. While Apple's AirPods sales kept growing, there's a huge amount of competitors. Everyone wants to sell TWEBS. But is has also made this market explode. The AirPods Pro gen 2 update could be 7 billion in Q1 just by itself. Add in other TWEB models, Ultra S8 SE Watch, less expensive Apple TV, my hunch is this category is going to stay trending upward.

 

[doogald]

-IMHO Foxconn issues probably will cause iPhone to be flat. The previous Q1 of nearly 72B. That's a titanic YoY comp to beat.

Could be, but remember that Apple replaced the >=$699 Mini with the >=$899 Plus model. Reportedly it's not selling well, but I think more people stepped up to the >=$999 Pro model instead, so average selling price is likely higher, which may make revenue gains more easily hit.

 

[Up_And_Away]

Could be, but remember that Apple replaced the >=$699 Mini with the >=$899 Plus model. Reportedly it's not selling well, but I think more people stepped up to the >=$999 Pro model instead, so average selling price is likely higher, which may make revenue gains more easily hit.

That's a fair, solid point. There is the sugar to thus story: 14+ higher MSRP compared to Mini's MSRP as well as the obvious highly polished upsell to the pro level iPhone should see a couple of percent YoY APU increase. And as FFR has been deftly pointing out (shout out to FFR ), iPhone's share of the premium market is in an uptrend. Further, Apple has a habit of beating supply chain issues. As well, Apple does like to, a bit, sandbag earnings ("aw shucks, next quarter we may just make a few pennies YoY ). Finally, the exchange headwinds have softened some. At time of last ER, $DXY was at 1.14. It was near 1.06 this week. That's a pretty favorable swing.

That is the end of the sugar, now for the salt. For Apple only weeks after an earnings report to actually publicly come out and caution on iPhone Pro supply? That's rare! And it is further backed up by issues of Christmas orders fulfillment before Thanksgiving, ouch. DXY getting favorable is more the Yen than any other currency in the basket. Further, disposable income has taken a hit due to inflation. Finally, the YoY comp is at such a staggering number, 72.5 billion, I think this mountain may be too high.
But if Apple beats 72.5 Billion this quarter especially hit 4% at 75.5 Billion? IMHO ithis will be one of greatest individual product category revenue performance in large corporate history. This will be a good thread to revisit late January to see how it story ends up.