Is the ipad going to cut into the iphone market share

[awtryau89]

I don't think it will at all. People that are Apple fans will have to have both. New customers that the iPad bring into the Apple store are probably only looking at it as a netbook or a reader.

 

[Lady Kaede]

it won't cut into the macbook sales because it's not powerful enough to be a standalone computer. plus you need a computer to sync it up. if it was a powerful enough computer, then it wouldn't matter if it cut into macbook sales and they would just raise the price. i agree, it's for the readers. it's competing mainly against the kindle.

Not powerful enough to do what? What is it you do with a laptop that you couldn't do with the iPad, given the appropriate app? OK, in my case, like Rene, I have a Macbook Air, and I use Photoshop, so that's not likely to ever work on an iPad. But how many people with laptops today use or need an applicatio like Photoshop?

 

[lungho]

This is simply a product for the masses that have the extra money to drop on a new toy or, heaven forbid, foolish enough to use a credit card to buy such a high ticket item.

What ever the case, the iPad is meant to do exactly what Jobs was doing with in during the keynote and nothing more. Power users will stick to their desktop macs and macbooks.

 

[capoeira4u]

No, because it's not a phone - but it will cut into iPod Touch sales a bit, and really hurt Apple's laptop business. I think the Macbook Air is dead unless they can drop the price way, way down. And I think 20 - 40% of people who would buy a MacBook are gonna seriously consider an iPad.

I agree. The iPod Touch and MBA are dead once a new, more useful, firmware is introduced for the iPad.

 

[Lady Kaede]

I keep thinking about the iPad as a laptop replacement. Let?s say the average price for iPads is $660, and the average price for Apple?s smallest laptops (MacBook, MacBook Air, 13? MacBook Pro) is $1,300.* I?m being very generous here, as the most likely laptop to be displaced by the iPad is the cheapest, the MacBook, starting at $1,000.* For every laptop Apple doesn?t sell, then, it would need to sell 2 iPads to stay even.* So, over the next year, if Apple sells 10 million iPads, they will only be hurting themselves if 13? laptop sales drop by more than 5 million units.* Will their laptop sales drop at all?* More likely the rate of increase in laptop sales will merely slow ? but a company with $40 billion in cash can afford to seed the market with a ?revolutionary? device in order to create a demand.* Over time, I still think the iPad will cut into Apple?s laptop sales ? but maybe that?s what Steve intends ? but also, I don?t see it hurting the company.* Only a Newton-like failure can do that, and that?s just not likely.
*

 

[Dyvim]

I agree that the iPad can (or will be able to do with 3rd party app support) most things that most people use computers for most of the time. So it could be a viable replacement for a computer for many people EXCEPT it still requires a computer. You have to have a computer to sync your music and video to it (and possibly your PIM info if you're not shelling out extra for MobileMe). So I can't get it for grandma instead of a computer because she still needs a computer to make it work. If it had a bit more capabilities that would allow it to operate as a stand-alone device, it would be a much better computer replacement option.

I see it affecting iPod Touch sales more than iPhone or MacBook.

 

[mullrat]

No because the new iPhone 4G will be out a month or so later and so you won't see much of a dip IMHO. BUT you will see users from other platforms pick one up. Hell, why not just buy a dumb phone with good reception and voice clarity and use the iPad for smartphone stuff? It's just a nice way to aso grab persons from other platforms into the Apple-verse.

 

[whmurray]

I don't see how because the iPad doesn't make phone calls...and everyone has a cell phone these days. If anything people will get the iPhone instead.

I do not understand why people keep making this assertion and what conclusion they want us to reach over it.

It is true that the "iPad doesn't make phone calls."

However, unless you have knowledge not available to the rest of us, one may assume that its owners will use it, just as with any other computer, to make phone calls. Unless Apple does something active to prevent it, Skype will work very well with the the iPad. While I do not like their business model, my understanding is that iCall does access both the 3G data service and WiFi to deliver voice over IP.

Do you have evidence that Apple plans to prevent the use of these apps on the iPad?

All that said, to the original question, I expect that the iPad will take some sales from the iPhone. On the other hand, though we will never know for sure, I expect that Apple's net sales will be better for having both in the line.

 

[Lady Kaede]

I don't have any evidence that these will be prevented. Without the cell radio however, they would only work with wi-fi, mi-fi. Perhaps you and I should go into business setting up VOIP accounts on cell-enabled iPads for people, because most of the target customer base (i.e., everybody) expects to use the thing right out of the box and hasn't a clue how to Skype. The idea of carrying around a phone the size of a trade paperback is just too weird -- it's never gonna replace a pocketable handset.

 

[whmurray]

I don't have any evidence that these will be prevented. Without the cell radio however, they would only work with wi-fi, mi-fi. Perhaps you and I should go into business setting up VOIP accounts on cell-enabled iPads for people, because most of the target customer base (i.e., everybody) expects to use the thing right out of the box and hasn't a clue how to Skype. The idea of carrying around a phone the size of a trade paperback is just too weird -- it's never gonna replace a pocketable handset.

I am sorry if I implied that the iPad might be used as a "phone," or particularly that anyone would buy it as one. I only intended to say that, like any other computer, some will be used to make phone calls.

Of course, in spite of its name, I see the iPhone as a computer that makes phone calls rather than as a phone that does a few computing applications. I will not carry my iPad as an alternative to a phone but as an alternative to a laptop or netbook.

No, I will never hold the iPad up to my head to make phone calls. On the other hand, I do not hold the iPhone to my head. In spite of what I might have suggested, I do not use VoIP on the iPhone. I do not use it because none of the clients supports Bluetooth wireless headsets and only one supports the speaker.

It seems clear that Apple and AT&T see this as a new category rather than as competitor to phones. That is in part why the pricing model is so different. I will buy the 3G radio in the hope that, one, my iPad will someday replace my MiFi card, and two, that the VoIP clients will adapt to the iPad. I do not expect to pay for service as long as the MiFi has to be velcroed to the back.

 

[Lady Kaede]

Clear. I'm seriously debating whether to get a 3G version. I spend 95% of my time in wi-fi spaces now. If I've got content on the device, can I live w/o a connection for the time it takes me to get to a hotspot? Almost always.

 

[iquinn]

Clear. I'm seriously debating whether to get a 3G version. I spend 95% of my time in wi-fi spaces now. If I've got content on the device, can I live w/o a connection for the time it takes me to get to a hotspot? Almost always.

I just do not see the point of the 3G version. I mean I just can not see myself using the iPad anywhere that would not have wi-fi. I also don't see it replacing my macbook pro, but I can see using it in places where I would have used my MBP. The first think that I thought of was how great the iPad would be for watching movies while on a plane.

 

[whmurray]

I just do not see the point of the 3G version. I mean I just can not see myself using the iPad anywhere that would not have wi-fi. I also don't see it replacing my macbook pro, but I can see using it in places where I would have used my MBP. The first think that I thought of was how great the iPad would be for watching movies while on a plane.

I am going to buy on hope. I am going to buy it because I cannot add it later. I am going to buy it because it is cheap.

I think that the pricing scheme is hopeful. For the first time we can buy data bandwidth on a usage only basis. 250MB minimum but one can turn it on and off at will. If one does not use it, AT&T does not get a dime. If AT&T continues to block tethering and Sling, I have to continue using my MIFi. Verizon, not AT&T gets the revenue.

[On the iPhone one must pay for data that Apple/AT&T will not let one use. One has to pay Verizon and AT&T for data that one might not get to use.]

Note that the iCall application enables VoIP over 3G. Does anyone else believe that this priciing plan suggests that AT&T will become more neutral, not to say, liberal?