Competition

[BLiNK]

it completely boggles my mind as to why anyone who complains of how Apple should make their product sticks around, but yet here they are. obviously they like what they have, to a degree

call me crazy but i learned while growing up that if you did not like a situation you are in then do something about it. in this case, sell your iPhone and buy something else. do people really believe that they will find something they are 100% completely satisfied with? yeah, not gonna happen

my ****ing head is spinning with all the "Apple better do this or else.." posts, not only here but everywhere

 

[Jellotime91]

First of all, it's iPhone, not Iphone... Second, it's Android, not Droid.

Anyway, this year there is more demand for the new iPhone than ever before, and it hasn't even been announced yet, so I highly doubt Apple is going to have any trouble selling even more iPhones than they sold last year. Couple that with the Sprint launch, and iOS's iMessage feature luring in former BB users, and iPhone 5's launch seems veeeery promising.

Please show me one competing device that has outsold any single model of iPhone worldwide. Hasn't happened. The iPhone is one device. If you're going to talk about OS, you need to bring iPod touch and iPad into that conversation as well, because OS market share only matters for apps and developers, and iPod touch and iPad can use 99% of the iPhone's apps.

it completely boggles my mind as to why anyone who complains of how Apple should make their product sticks around, but yet here they are. obviously they like what they have, to a degree

call me crazy but i learned while growing up that if you did not like a situation you are in then do something about it. in this case, sell your iPhone and buy something else. do people really believe that they will find something they are 100% completely satisfied with? yeah, not gonna happen

my ****ing head is spinning with all the "Apple better do this or else.." posts, not only here but everywhere

Let's not forget that half of these people don't even own an iPhone. They just happened to buy an iPad or an iPod and they think that makes them a market analyst.

 

[DrewBear]

Anyway, this year there is more demand for the new iPhone than ever before, and it hasn't even been announced yet, so I highly doubt Apple is going to have any trouble selling even more iPhones than they sold last year. Couple that with the Sprint launch, and iOS's iMessage feature luring in former BB users, and iPhone 5's launch seems veeeery promising.

Please show me one competing device that has outsold any single model of iPhone worldwide. Hasn't happened. The iPhone is one device. If you're going to talk about OS, you need to bring iPod touch and iPad into that conversation as well, because OS market share only matters for apps and developers, and iPod touch and iPad can use 99% of the iPhone's apps.

Well said. This confusion about what is competing with what is all too common. The iPhone competes with other phones (Droid Bionic, S2, Nexus ---, Blackberry etc.). iOS competes with other platforms (Android, WP7, BB7, QNX, etc.)

The average consumer doesn't care about the platform war. They just care about finding the best phone for them. Last quarter AT&T sold 5.6 million smartphones. 3.6 million of them were iPhones. That means that 6 out of 10 customers going into an AT&T store walked out with an iPhone. 4 out of 10 walked out with an Android, Blackberry, WP7 or WebOS phone. Verizon didn't report how many total smartphones they sold, but they did report that they sold 2.3 million iPhone 4s.

Yes, 0 out of 10 people walked out of a Sprint or T-Mobile store with an iPhone. Guess what the numbers will be when Apple makes an iPhone that is compatible on those networks?

 

[Raptor007]

I have grown tired of the articles saying there is so much MORE demand for the iPhone 5 this year than iPhone 4 last year. That is a no DUH statement. But what really has gotten to me is the method of and number of people surveyed for the polls. Which have ranged from a 50 to 2200, which is hardly a large sample group and accosting passersby on the street to ask if they will buy an iPhone in NYC.

If you want a real market analysis done, then they should actually do a real one, taken from a broad segment of the US population and then tell us what it comes out as.

Analysts are idiots based on what they spew out, a kindergardener can tell you this years model is going to be hotter than last years model when it comes to Apple especially given the fact that it will be about 15-16 months since the iPhone 4 came out.

The problem really comes down to analysts trying to pull crap out of their butz and telling us is swiss chocolates.

I can tell you right now, that the iPhone 6 will be in higher demand than the iPhone 5 that hasn't even been released and we know nothing about iPhone 6. Wow, now I am an analyst offering up my perspective, how about that corner office and $500k a year.

 

[Jellotime91]

I have grown tired of the articles saying there is so much MORE demand for the iPhone 5 this year than iPhone 4 last year. That is a no DUH statement. But what really has gotten to me is the method of and number of people surveyed for the polls. Which have ranged from a 50 to 2200, which is hardly a large sample group and accosting passersby on the street to ask if they will buy an iPhone in NYC.

If you want a real market analysis done, then they should actually do a real one, taken from a broad segment of the US population and then tell us what it comes out as.

Analysts are idiots based on what they spew out, a kindergardener can tell you this years model is going to be hotter than last years model when it comes to Apple especially given the fact that it will be about 15-16 months since the iPhone 4 came out.

The problem really comes down to analysts trying to pull crap out of their butz and telling us is swiss chocolates.

I can tell you right now, that the iPhone 6 will be in higher demand than the iPhone 5 that hasn't even been released and we know nothing about iPhone 6. Wow, now I am an analyst offering up my perspective, how about that corner office and $500k a year.

You've grown tired of those articles? Really? I've only seen that news piece one time and that was today. You're telling me this survey has been circulating everywhere for months and I just saw it now? Are you kidding?.... I haven't seen a single report like that all year, until today.

 

[DrewBear]

I have grown tired of the articles saying there is so much MORE demand for the iPhone 5 this year than iPhone 4 last year. That is a no DUH statement....Analysts are idiots based on what they spew out, a kindergardener can tell you this years model is going to be hotter than last years model when it comes to Apple especially given the fact that it will be about 15-16 months since the iPhone 4 came out.

I agree that most analysts are idiots and I agree that it's obvious that each new iPhone sells much better (about double) than the previous version. But that is not obvious for other phones. Droid 2 almost certainly (no way to know for sure because Moto doesn't give out numbers) didn't sell as well as the original Droid. The EVO 3D (2011) did not sell better than the EVO 4G (2010). The Galaxy S2 is starting out faster than the original Galaxy S in terms of shipments, but it's not certain it will outsell the S1 over the course of a year.

 

[msm0511]

I agree that most analysts are idiots and I agree that it's obvious that each new iPhone sells much better (about double) than the previous version. But that is not obvious for other phones. Droid 2 almost certainly (no way to know for sure because Moto doesn't give out numbers) didn't sell as well as the original Droid. The EVO 3D (2011) did not sell better than the EVO 4G (2010). The Galaxy S2 is starting out faster than the original Galaxy S in terms of shipments, but it's not certain it will outsell the S1 over the course of a year.

At some point the iPhone will fit in that category as well. They simply can't keep doubling their figures as they have in the past. I'm not saying they will have a flop iPhone in terms of sales, but at some point market saturation does pose a problem. That's with all consumer products though.

 

[DrewBear]

At some point the iPhone will fit in that category as well. They simply can't keep doubling their figures as they have in the past. I'm not saying they will have a flop iPhone in terms of sales, but at some point market saturation does pose a problem. That's with all consumer products though.

The famous "law of large numbers". I agree Apple can't keep doubling iPhone sales indefinitely. They'll end up selling 90-100 million iPhones in 2011. Very early guesses for 2012 are in the 150-175 million range. That's not doubling, but it is still crazy growth. You're talking growth of ~$30+ billion in sales. Next year iPhone revenue will easily surpass Microsoft's revenue from all their products. That's insane!

One thing that can't be accounted for is the fabled "pre-paid" iPhone. The unsubsidized price of a 3GS is ~$450. What if Apple started selling phones in the $300-350 price range? Unlocked & unsubsidized.

Another "what if" is a 3G iPod touch with full access to FaceTime, iMessage & Skype. It might not qualify technically as a phone, but it functionally would be one. How many people these days use their phones primarily for text messages & social networking (Twitter, FB, etc.)?

In any case, the iPhone still has plenty of growth potential ahead of it. Remember that only a minority of cell phone users have switched to smartphones. It is a rapidly expanding market and the iPhone dominates the high-end part of it.

 

[Jellotime91]

At some point the iPhone will fit in that category as well. They simply can't keep doubling their figures as they have in the past. I'm not saying they will have a flop iPhone in terms of sales, but at some point market saturation does pose a problem. That's with all consumer products though.

What helps them, though, is that the majority of iPhone users are very satisfied, and like to buy the new model every year. So on top of the new customers, they also have the majority of their old customers buying the new device as well.

 

[msm0511]

What helps them, though, is that the majority of iPhone users are very satisfied, and like to buy the new model every year. So on top of the new customers, they also have the majority of their old customers buying the new device as well.

I agree with you Jello. At some point though, they will reach a level of saturation that they can't post record sales forever. I don't necessarily believe it will happen soon or that iPhones will sell poorly anytime soon. My only point is that Apple, along with all smartphone makers, will eventually see their sales numbers slow down.

 

[ghostface147]

Please do a survey of 3,000,000 people for a better poll.

 

[DrewBear]

Well over a billion cell phones are sold each year. Less than 30% of them are smartphones. Both markets are growing, but the smartphone segment is growing even faster. Most analysts think that smartphones will comprise over half of all cell phones sold by 2016. That's at least another 5 yrs. of strong smartphone growth.

Although it's not representative of the world, people in the U.S. buy a new smartphone every 2-3 yrs. Worldwide the average may be a little longer, especially for the high-end phones. But it's still a relatively short time frame compared to computers or TVs. With a number of new features and technologies (4G, NFC, etc.) already anticipated for future smartphones, that replacement cycle time is not likely to go down.

Smartphones & tablets will be the vector that brings internet access to a large portion of the world. There are many regions where landline internet access is still not available. Cellular data will change that just as cellular phone service gave billions of people access to phone service where they had none before.

Smartphones and tablets are the technology growth story for this decade. "Eventual" slowdown of this market is a long ways away. Apple's iPhone & iPad are set to profit the most from this tech trend. They do and will have competition, but they will probably continue to hold a prominent place in the marketplace.

 

[Jellotime91]

I agree with you Jello. At some point though, they will reach a level of saturation that they can't post record sales forever. I don't necessarily believe it will happen soon or that iPhones will sell poorly anytime soon. My only point is that Apple, along with all smartphone makers, will eventually see their sales numbers slow down.

But having a huge majority of users ready and willing to upgrade to the next device every year, plus those that change their mind and decide to upgrade the day before it comes out (like my sister, every friggin year) really helps them out.

I'm not saying their numbers will increase forever, obviously that's impossible, but I know that this year is going to be another increase in sales over last year.

 

[msm0511]

But having a huge majority of users ready and willing to upgrade to the next device every year, plus those that change their mind and decide to upgrade the day before it comes out (like my sister, every friggin year) really helps them out.

I'm not saying their numbers will increase forever, obviously that's impossible, but I know that this year is going to be another increase in sales over last year.

I'm with you on this year Jello. I'm sure they have quite a few more years of increasing sales yoy. I was looking more at long-term than short-term sales.

 

[DrewBear]

I'm with you on this year Jello. I'm sure they have quite a few more years of increasing sales yoy. I was looking more at long-term than short-term sales.

I think "a few more years" is long-term. The iPhone is barely 4 yrs. old and the iPad 1.5 yrs. old. In high-tech terms I think a year is short-term and 2-5 yrs. long-term. Anything beyond that is practically science fiction.

This thread started out talking about the competition between iOS (iPhone specifically) and Android. In the short-term we're going to see how Android phones hold up to this next iPhone (s). And it's not just the device, it's also the new carriers that will be carrying the iPhone, both in the U.S. and abroad.

In the long-term, patents and Android forks (OPhone, Amazon, Baidu, etc.) will play an important part in how Android fares against iOS. I think iCloud will also be more significant than many people think.

JMO, but we may look back a few years from now and point to the iPhone 5/iOS 5 release as a turning point in people's perception of the Android vs iOS contest. Up to now I think the general belief is that Android surpassed iOS sometime last year. I think that opinion might change in 2012.

 

[msm0511]

I think "a few more years" is long-term. The iPhone is barely 4 yrs. old and the iPad 1.5 yrs. old. In high-tech terms I think a year is short-term and 2-5 yrs.

When talking about the tech involved 2-5 yrs would be long-term. In terms of sales figures I think 2-5 yrs would be considered short-term.

In terms of competition, Google is in spot that they had better watch their step. Even though manufacturers publicly said they were happy w/ Google's decision behind buying MMI, I'm sure that many OEMs are considering other OSs more than ever. If manufacturers disagree w/ the way Google handles Motorola and decides to focus on other platforms, Apple will come out on top