MacWorld Predictions?

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cmaier

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2 for 12 (including the known movie rental stuff). Karnak would be impressed. (The sad thing is that several of your guesses are things Apple should be doing).

I like how Apple is charging existing Touch customers $20 for the same apps as the iPhone...or that come with the "new" Touch. (Ug).

I don't have a lot of sympathy for those customers - they bought something marketed as a fancy ipod, knowing what software it came with. (Pretty much all the software, other than the web browser, was equivalent to stuff on an ipod, and the web browser was there primarily to allow wifi itunes purchases). Adding those other apps moves it away from an ipod and more toward a mini-communicator. And if people don't want to pay, they can just jailbreak and get some equivalent apps, or wait a month or so and start downloading very cheap or free apps off of itunes.
 

mobileman

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2 for 12 (including the known movie rental stuff). Karnak would be impressed. (The sad thing is that several of your guesses are things Apple should be doing).

Hey MikeC, its been a long time. So, 4 million iPhones sold. How do those numbers match up with your in store sales predictions?
 

mikec#IM

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I don't have a lot of sympathy for those customers - they bought something marketed as a fancy ipod, knowing what software it came with. (Pretty much all the software, other than the web browser, was equivalent to stuff on an ipod, and the web browser was there primarily to allow wifi itunes purchases). Adding those other apps moves it away from an ipod and more toward a mini-communicator. And if people don't want to pay, they can just jailbreak and get some equivalent apps, or wait a month or so and start downloading very cheap or free apps off of itunes.

I subscribe to caveat emptor as much as the next guy. I just think it creates ill will where none is needed.

The Touch is a slick device, and to me, one of the jewels they should be pushing. (not everyone can switch carriers and phone, but everyone can switch PMPs)
 

mikec#IM

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Hey MikeC, its been a long time. So, 4 million iPhones sold. How do those numbers match up with your in store sales predictions?

Well, I still go buy the stores every so often, and again, not much frenzy for iPhones (although lots of people buy Macs and Touches over the holidays it seemed.)

I do see a lot more in the wild, for sure.

I'm sure most of these sales are online, and the European numbers are in there as well.
Still, I'm impressed they have sold that many - never underestimate the number of people willing to part with cash.

Here were the estimates back in the day:

Fiscal year ending Sept 2007, and Sept 2008.

? American Technology Research: 250,000, N/A
? Bear Stearns & Co: 650,000, N/A
? Credit Suisse: 1.7 million, 12.3 million
? Pacific Crest Securities: 800,000, 4.8 million
? Piper Jaffray & Co: 1.2 million, 8 million
? UBS AG: 950,000, 8.1 million
? Goldman Sachs: 5.25M, 12 million
? JP Morgan: N/A, 9.85 million

A lot of variability there...Looks like Piper was the closest thus far.

It will be very interesting what the 2008 number are. I expect another iPhone release of some sort to push toward those numbers. Still, that is a lot of phones...it will be interesting to see if the meteoric rise continues. For a phone limited to certain carriers, these are sweet numbers.

So who's getting a Macbook Air? Isn't this what the Palm Foleo should have been? ;-)
 

Rene Ritchie

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@archie:

LOL! That's what I was saying. (Though you were a bit of a tease about it...)

The $20 for Touch update makes no sense to me given the iPhone and Apple TV updates are gratis. However, it's been pointed out that both those updates make Apple money via rentable movies, where the 5 apps for Touch don't. Don't understand still.

I like Time Capsule, but it will be interesting to see if you can use it for more than just Time Machine. And will iDrobo be next?

Apple TV 2 has me interested. I have a ton of DVDs I'd rather rip and make available via iTunes, but with a MPB I don't have the local storage to merely sync. If I could make a secondary library and synch that, it would be perfect,

Sad there was no "One more thing..." (even Safari Windows was one more thing...)
 

cmaier

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@archie:

LOL! That's what I was saying. (Though you were a bit of a tease about it...)

The $20 for Touch update makes no sense to me given the iPhone and Apple TV updates are gratis. However, it's been pointed out that both those updates make Apple money via rentable movies, where the 5 apps for Touch don't. Don't understand still.

The apple TV update doesn't add new functionality (afaik) other than allowing you to spend money to rent movies. It doesn't provide anything free (other than a change in UI).

The touch update adds lots of new functionality that is free to use once installed, enabling the device to do things it was never advertised as being able to do.

I don't see any relationship between these updates. Demanding a free update is sort of like demanding Microsoft throw in Office because you already paid for Windows Basic (i.e.: Touch) and because people who buy Windows Super Deluxe (ie: iphone) already get Office.
 

cmaier

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I subscribe to caveat emptor as much as the next guy. I just think it creates ill will where none is needed.

The Touch is a slick device, and to me, one of the jewels they should be pushing. (not everyone can switch carriers and phone, but everyone can switch PMPs)

Then I demand all itunes songs for free, because I like free stuff.
 

mikec#IM

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The apple TV update doesn't add new functionality (afaik) other than allowing you to spend money to rent movies. It doesn't provide anything free (other than a change in UI).

The touch update adds lots of new functionality that is free to use once installed, enabling the device to do things it was never advertised as being able to do.

I don't see any relationship between these updates. Demanding a free update is sort of like demanding Microsoft throw in Office because you already paid for Windows Basic (i.e.: Touch) and because people who buy Windows Super Deluxe (ie: iphone) already get Office.

My question is will the 30+24 model work (30 days to view, 24 hours to complete after starting).

Sure, this appeals to the person who can sit and watch a movie; but what about those who watch things in chunks? Maybe it's small audience.

I do like the Netflix "free" streaming, although obviously it's computer oriented, not TV.

The real question is this - when will the hack be in place to download and playback as often as you want? ;-)
 

Rene Ritchie

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The real question is this - when will the hack be in place to download and playback as often as you want? ;-)

http://lifehacker.com/345566/download-netflix-watch-now-movies-easy+like-with-netflix-download-links


The apple TV update doesn't add new functionality (afaik) other than allowing you to spend money to rent movies. It doesn't provide anything free (other than a change in UI).

It removes the need for a computer running iTunes in order to download and watch video podcasts, including HD video podcats, for free.

I don't see any relationship between these updates. Demanding a free update is sort of like demanding Microsoft throw in Office because you already paid for Windows Basic (i.e.: Touch) and because people who buy Windows Super Deluxe (ie: iphone) already get Office.

It's not a question of demand or entitlement (and I don't even own a Touch). It's a question, for Apple, of PR. Including the new apps for free on new Touches makes (legitimately or not), early purchasers once again (rightly or wrongly) feel slighted by Apple (after the reaction to the iPhone price drop, it has become a melodrama of sorts).

Likewise, allowing wireless backups to Time Capsule but disabling them in the release version of Leopard (while they were enabled in the beta), absent a clear statement of whether or not its forthcoming and if not, why not, creates a PR problem (similar perhaps to the iPhone SDK where Jobs finally had to "just say it")

It's strange how Apple missteps these little perception problems as they grow... (which should be handled with better planning/pr from inception).
 

mikec#IM

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http://lifehacker.com/345566/download-netflix-watch-now-movies-easy+like-with-netflix-download-links




It removes the need for a computer running iTunes in order to download and watch video podcasts, including HD video podcats, for free.



It's not a question of demand or entitlement (and I don't even own a Touch). It's a question, for Apple, of PR. Including the new apps for free on new Touches makes (legitimately or not), early purchasers once again (rightly or wrongly) feel slighted by Apple (after the reaction to the iPhone price drop, it has become a melodrama of sorts).

Likewise, allowing wireless backups to Time Capsule but disabling them in the release version of Leopard (while they were enabled in the beta), absent a clear statement of whether or not its forthcoming and if not, why not, creates a PR problem (similar perhaps to the iPhone SDK where Jobs finally had to "just say it")

It's strange how Apple missteps these little perception problems as they grow... (which should be handled with better planning/pr from inception).

Rener, thanks for the link. I was referring to iTunes, not Netflix, but the Netflix stuff is good too.

Now if I could just get their player to work! (argh - audio, no video).
 

archie

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2 for 12 (including the known movie rental stuff). Karnak would be impressed. (The sad thing is that several of your guesses are things Apple should be doing).

I like how Apple is charging existing Touch customers $20 for the same apps as the iPhone...or that come with the "new" Touch. (Ug).
Mike you can't count.

Let's see...

I knew that there was a new backup device coming to go with Time Machine - you heard this from me exclusively.

I knew that Apple TV was going to be updated.

I knew (like everyone else, as you said) that movie rentals were coming to the iTunes Store.

I knew that iTunes would of course get updated to support this.

I knew that the iPhone update 1.1.3 was arriving on this day.

I also knew that this iPhone 1.1.3 update included Mail app changes to give gMail accounts more features and IMAP functionality - you heard this from me exclusively.

I knew that Apple was introducing a new portable at 13" X 8" or 8" X 5".

As we now know, it was the larger size... OK I missed it by an inch. Sorry.
Actual size is 13 X 9. I thought I came pretty close though so you can stick it mikec.

We will soon see another device at the 8" X 5" size that I called out (Again, you heard it here first).

Nobody else was predicting Pro level hardware to arrive at this consumer level show - except for me. I said that they were going to be releasing new Mac Pro AND new Xserves. I said the Mac Pro would be released the first day and the Xserve would be released the day after. As we now know, I was only 5 and 6 days off. Not bad considering nobody (the press and anyone else with an outlet on the net) thought they would consider releasing at this time.

In regards to the iLife app updates only 2 were updated and then of course you have 2 others that were tied in - Front Row and QuickTime. I was wrong when it came to the 2 that I thought would get new functionality.

And I was also wrong when it came to the release of the 16GB iPhone. I was 99.9% sure this would come to fruition. There were probably some political reasons or a time factor in the keynote that stopped this from happening to be a focus. I am quite certain we will see this in about 4 weeks though.

Oh, I did also miss the iPod Hi-Fi II.

But beyond that I did pretty well. Not as good as last year though. Last year I even predicted the upsetting news that iLife '08 would not arrive until much later. Nobody thought that one was possible. :)
 

archie

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I like how Apple is charging existing Touch customers $20 for the same apps as the iPhone...or that come with the "new" Touch. (Ug).
Mike, I don't know why you paint this as a bad thing that Apple is doing?
I'm SURE you know of Sarbanes-Oxley and I am sure you know that only AppleTV and the iPhone fall under this so why continue to make this an issue.

iPhone users pay a monthly fee that gets them sftware updates, iPod touch users do not. This is why they are required to pay a mere $20 for 5 applications. THIS is a bargain in my mind.
 

archie

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I can see where people who were considering a new router/access point would consider the time capsule, though I think people would be better off with an airport and plugging a usb drive into it.

I like the fact that you are not bottle-necked with a USB connection. The Time Capsule has a fast server-class SATA drive spinning at 72,000.
 

archie

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@archie:

LOL! That's what I was saying. (Though you were a bit of a tease about it...)
Ah, that's cool. Sorry.

The $20 for Touch update makes no sense to me given the iPhone and Apple TV updates are gratis. However, it's been pointed out that both those updates make Apple money via rentable movies, where the 5 apps for Touch don't. Don't understand still.

I like Time Capsule, but it will be interesting to see if you can use it for more than just Time Machine. And will iDrobo be next?
Yup, Mac or PC can write to it as a drive other than a Time Capsule connected to Time Machine.
 

cardfan

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you'd like to think ipod users already paid for the software updates with the initial purchase.

I'm not paying for windows updates, palm updates, or any of number of software updates i get..why is this one ok to pay for? (not that i am..i don't own one but do own the iphone).
 

mikec#IM

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Mike you can't count.

Let's see...

I knew that there was a new backup device coming to go with Time Machine - you heard this from me exclusively.

I knew that Apple TV was going to be updated.

I knew (like everyone else, as you said) that movie rentals were coming to the iTunes Store.

I knew that iTunes would of course get updated to support this.

I knew that the iPhone update 1.1.3 was arriving on this day.

I also knew that this iPhone 1.1.3 update included Mail app changes to give gMail accounts more features and IMAP functionality - you heard this from me exclusively.

I knew that Apple was introducing a new portable at 13" X 8" or 8" X 5".

As we now know, it was the larger size... OK I missed it by an inch. Sorry.
Actual size is 13 X 9. I thought I came pretty close though so you can stick it mikec.

We will soon see another device at the 8" X 5" size that I called out (Again, you heard it here first).

Nobody else was predicting Pro level hardware to arrive at this consumer level show - except for me. I said that they were going to be releasing new Mac Pro AND new Xserves. I said the Mac Pro would be released the first day and the Xserve would be released the day after. As we now know, I was only 5 and 6 days off. Not bad considering nobody (the press and anyone else with an outlet on the net) thought they would consider releasing at this time.

In regards to the iLife app updates only 2 were updated and then of course you have 2 others that were tied in - Front Row and QuickTime. I was wrong when it came to the 2 that I thought would get new functionality.

And I was also wrong when it came to the release of the 16GB iPhone. I was 99.9% sure this would come to fruition. There were probably some political reasons or a time factor in the keynote that stopped this from happening to be a focus. I am quite certain we will see this in about 4 weeks though.

Oh, I did also miss the iPod Hi-Fi II.

But beyond that I did pretty well. Not as good as last year though. Last year I even predicted the upsetting news that iLife '08 would not arrive until much later. Nobody thought that one was possible. :)

Archie,

Thanks for the revisionist history post, and the insult to "stick it". I took your advice, and stuck it in a certain person's maternal representation. (Mods, feel free to delete this post, but quite frankly am sick of Archie's insulting comments. One good policy violation begets another.)

I was going to respond point by point, but it doens't matter. You just make up the fact to suit yourself (and if you even read, I gave you laptop prediction regardless of size.)
 

mikec#IM

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Mike, I don't know why you paint this as a bad thing that Apple is doing?
I'm SURE you know of Sarbanes-Oxley and I am sure you know that only AppleTV and the iPhone fall under this so why continue to make this an issue.

iPhone users pay a monthly fee that gets them sftware updates, iPod touch users do not. This is why they are required to pay a mere $20 for 5 applications. THIS is a bargain in my mind.

Customers don't like getting nickeled and dimed.

Not sure why you bring up SOX, as it has nothing to do with the conversation.

As for your logic on why Touch people pay and IPhones people do not, I guess that's one perspective, but I think most would disagree.
 

archie

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you'd like to think ipod users already paid for the software updates with the initial purchase.

I'm not paying for windows updates, palm updates, or any of number of software updates i get..why is this one ok to pay for? (not that i am..i don't own one but do own the iphone).

These are not updates. You are receiving completely new applications that give you 5 completely new pieces of functionality that was not promised with the initial product release.
 

cardfan

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Sorry, but i don't buy that. If they're not updates, then apple shouldn't be selling ipods with the current update and make the purchase separate.

I think you forgot what updates are. New functionality is part of it. I thought that was part of the Apple experience. Apparently not..unless you pay more.
 

mobileman

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Mike, I don't know why you paint this as a bad thing that Apple is doing?
I'm SURE you know of Sarbanes-Oxley and I am sure you know that only AppleTV and the iPhone fall under this so why continue to make this an issue.

iPhone users pay a monthly fee that gets them sftware updates, iPod touch users do not. This is why they are required to pay a mere $20 for 5 applications. THIS is a bargain in my mind.

My dell laptop gets new software updates every few months. Sometimes they even add new "features". I dont need to pay for any of these.

It makes no sense for Apple to charge early adopters for a firmware upgrade. It only creates ill-will for a measly $20. I think the is the first negative thing apple has done in over a year.
 
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