10 Things that "Absolutely suck" about the iPhone. (Yes I have one)

[samkim]

I stand by my statement. Most analysts are wrong. Period.

You keep ignoring my evidence. Perhaps the math confuses you. But it's a simple fact. Since almost all analysts say that almost all of the stocks they cover will do better than the median stock, and since only 50% of stocks could possibly do so, you just need to subtract one number from the other to find out how many are wrong.

First, most analysts don't rate "almost all" the stocks they cover as outperforming the market.

Second, most stocks are not covered by any analyst.

Sure, the stocks go up, but that's not what they are predicting. They are predicting the stocks will rise faster than the median of all other stocks. And it's impossible for them all to be right. Only half the stocks they pick will do so. And since almost none of them are right all of the time, most analysts are wrong.

Since the stocks they pick comprise a small fraction of the market, it's possible for them to be mostly right.

 

[cmaier]

Dude, all you have to do is google "analyst positive bias" to see tons of academic articles that say exactly what I said. The vast majority of all analyst pronouncements are positive, and most of those are of the "outperform" variety (analysts typically don't just say "this stock will rise," since that's of little interest to investors, most of whom have already decided to invest in the equity market and are merely trying to decide what stocks to buy).

And in any reasonably large industry you will find most stocks are covered by one analyst or another. When an analyst rates a stock as outperform, he doesn't mean "it will outperform some closely held penny stock from some LLC in Nevada."

Name an analyst who, long term (say, over the course of 10 years) has been right more often than wrong.

 

[mikec#IM]

So 270K iPhones sold....the expect 1M by end of Sept.

 

[cmaier]

So 270K iPhones sold....the expect 1M by end of Sept.

270k in the first 30 hours might actually translate into 400k in the first weekend, particularly if web sales are counted.

The fact that so many were not immediately activated also tends to dispute the "all buyers were rabid zealots who activated on their powerbooks before leaving the store" sort of argument. Or, in the alternative, says that activation problems may have been more rampant than AT&T lets on.

 

[marcol]

To fix this.

Surur

Fixed:

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl

 

[surur]

270k in the first 30 hours might actually translate into 400k in the first weekend, particularly if web sales are counted.

The fact that so many were not immediately activated also tends to dispute the "all buyers were rabid zealots who activated on their powerbooks before leaving the store" sort of argument. Or, in the alternative, says that activation problems may have been more rampant than AT&T lets on.

Or ebayers.

Surur

 

[mobileman]

So 270K iPhones sold....the expect 1M by end of Sept.

270,000 sold in the first 30 hours. Most stores (maybe all) completely out of stock by Sunday night. The sounds very impressive to me. It must almost be fairly impressive to Wall Street as their stock is up over 4 in after hours trading. One thing is certain, MikeC shouldnt give up his day job do to product sales analysis.

Here are some of his highlights

Still, it's a black eye (relative to the hype), and the Street is responding.

I am sure Apple is spinning their numbers as we speak, so that they look a lot better. It's not like they haven't weaseled before before (ex. backdating scandal).

and my favorite...

Reality sucks for fanboys.

*Edit - Stock is up over 11 points in after hour trading. Guess the Street loved those number after all.

 

[marcol]

270,000 sold in the first 30 hours. Most stores (maybe all) completely out of stock by Sunday night. The sounds very impressive to me. It must almost be fairly impressive to Wall Street as their stock is up over 4 in after hours trading.

Currently up ~$11 (>8%).

EDIT: You beat me to it!

 

[braj]

Up $12, no, wait, $15, hold on... $23, golly gee $45! And up and up! No one can deny Apple would have been a good buy a month ago (actually always has been).

 

[surur]

I think Wall street is reacting more to the 33% rise in mac sales and 22% rise in Ipod sales, than the IPhone sales of 1 million per quarter projected (which is about what Palm sells).

Surur

 

[mobileman]

I think Wall street is reacting more to the 33% rise in mac sales and 22% rise in Ipod sales, than the IPhone sales of 1 million per quarter projected (which is about what Palm sells).

Surur

If you think the stock would have taken off with any bad iPhone news, then you are crazy.

 

[sxtg]

If you think the stock would have taken off with any bad iPhone news, then you are crazy.

Its impossible to have bad iHope news until after the point of sale. I dont think any sales reports are disclosing the returns. It will be the next quarter profits that tell what the public thinks of the iHope.

 

[treobk214]

Iphones making their way into the office. :

Ahhhh.. The future`s lookin bright...

)--In what amounts to a warning shot at Research in Motion Inc. (RIMM), Apple Inc. (AAPL) said Wednesday that businesses are expressing an interest in outfitting their work forces with iPhones. So far, about 270,000 of the Apple's combination cellphone, music player and Internet cruising device have been sold. A large percentage have been purchased for use as personal phones. But as Oppenheimer alluded to Wednesday, now corporations, which generally favor RIM's Blackberry device, are also taking an interest in the device. "We already have a number of corporate customers that are piloting the iPhone," said Apple Chief Financial Officer Peter Oppenheimer. "They have told us they're very happy with the results so far." Also Wednesday, Apple tried to set aside fears that sales of the iPhone, which contains a music player, is cannibalizing sales of Apple's iPod, which is a standalone digital music player. Oppenheimer said there was "absolutely no evidence" that was happening....

 

[surur]

If you think the stock would have taken off with any bad iPhone news, then you are crazy.

iPhone news is only moderately good. Its nowhere close to those breathless projections made over the launch weekend. Wasn't Apple supposed to have already sold a million iPhones in the launch week?

Surur

 

[surur]

Iphones making their way into the office. :

Ahhhh.. The future`s lookin bright...

http://custom.marketwatch.com/custom/tdameritrade-com/html-story.asp?guid={0392e8c0-b6dc-4ac4-8fc5-88a42db788eb}

I wonder how the iPhone now being completely hacked will influence those decisions.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/07/25/iphone-dev-wiki-update-the-floodgates-have-opened/

Surur

 

[treobk214]

I think Wall street is reacting more to the 33% rise in mac sales and 22% rise in Ipod sales, than the IPhone sales of 1 million per quarter projected (which is about what Palm sells).

Surur

Its about what what Palm sells? lol. Treos are available on numerous carriers WORLDWIDE and they MAYBE match the iphone sales from only one single carrier over just a the past few weeks? That` s pathetic.

The iphone is putting the treo to shame.

 

[mikec#IM]

270,000 sold in the first 30 hours. Most stores (maybe all) completely out of stock by Sunday night. The sounds very impressive to me. It must almost be fairly impressive to Wall Street as their stock is up over 4 in after hours trading. One thing is certain, MikeC shouldnt give up his day job do to product sales analysis.

Here are some of his highlights






and my favorite...


*Edit - Stock is up over 11 points in after hour trading. Guess the Street loved those number after all.

I never said I was analyst...I don't try to predict the market, only observe it.

My statements we accurate at the time they were stated.

The Street is repsonding to the 1M by 9/30 and target for 2008, not the 270K.

And quite frankly, I think are including online orders in that, so again it's high, but not insane high. that accounts for the discrepancy with the AT&T numbers. (my view).

They sold very well. 270K is a rational number, unlike the 2x-3x higher predictions.

 

[treobk214]

I wonder how the iPhone now being completely hacked will influence those decisions.
http://www.engadget.com/2007/07/25/iphone-dev-wiki-update-the-floodgates-have-opened/

Surur

Cool your engines. Apple is reportedly due to release a patch in the coming weeks, just like microsoft has done in the past with security issues, surur.

From a business standpoint, I would think windows users are quite accustomed to operating systems being completely vulnerable to hackers, worms, viruses and the like by now. Has that hurt microsoft`s sales in the workplace?

 

[mobileman]

I think Wall street is reacting more to the 33% rise in mac sales and 22% rise in Ipod sales, than the IPhone sales of 1 million per quarter projected (which is about what Palm sells).

Surur

iPhone news is only moderately good. Its nowhere close to those breathless projections made over the launch weekend. Wasn't Apple supposed to have already sold a million iPhones in the launch week?

Surur

270,000 sales in 30 hours isnt very good? When did Apple ever state they would sell 1 million units in a week?

 

[surur]

Observe the headlines. The iPhone hardly features, except to say "Forget the iPhone." This surge is due to Apple's other business.

Apple 3Q Profit Surges More Than 73 Pct.
AP (Wed 7:13pm)
? Apple quarterly profit rises on Mac strength
Reuters (Wed 7:06pm)
? [$$] Boeing, Amazon Pace Stock Gains
at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 7:06pm)
? [$$] Apple Earnings Surge 73% On Strong iPod, Mac Sales
at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 6:45pm)
? [audio] Andrew O'Day's Money Markets & More for July 26 [4.2 min]
at MarketWatch (Wed 6:44pm)
? Apple profit surges 73% on strong Mac, iPod sales
at MarketWatch (Wed 6:39pm)
? Business Highlights
AP (Wed 6:12pm)
? [$$] Stocks Advance, Overcoming Nerves
at The Wall Street Journal Online (Wed 6:07pm)
? Wall Street pulls off a winner
at CNNMoney.com (Wed 6:04pm)
? Forget The iPhone

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl

Surur