10 Things that "Absolutely suck" about the iPhone. (Yes I have one)

[mikec#IM]

Again, I don't know where MikeC got his 1 million units sold number from, but I doubt there were even 1 million units available during the first 30 hours. Hard to sell 1 million units if lets say only 250,000 were available. Maybe MikeC knows something I don't. He may be right though, we will find out tonight.

Re: the 1M number:

http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/07/05/sold.between.200.700k/&startNumber=20

Obviously, this is first week and not just the weekend.

I never said anyone on WS published that, although Goldman said 700K.

I have heard that only 250K units were made for initial release (some rumor on the net) so maybe that is true.

I don't know anymore than anyone else; jsut connecting some dots.

I have to believe Apple's number will be higher that AT&T, but maybe not; I thought they couldn't claim revenue from online sales until after the product ships, so that would mean the real surge will be in the July number.

Who knows...wait and see.

 

[marcol]

marcol,

so the word of a podcaster is evdience of all predictions/forecasts?

My post was a response to your statement "But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range".

One instance of a prediction outside of that range is enough to disprove that.

 

[oalvarez]

lets see how RBC does today with its predictions:

Apple Inc. may have sold as many as
450,000 iPhones in their first two days on sale, according to RBC
Capital Markets, which said AT&T Inc.'s activation figures may
not reflect shipments.
AT&T said yesterday that it activated 146,000 of the phones
in the first two days of the sales agreement. Apple introduced
the iPhone, which combines the iPod music player with an e-mail
phone, on June 29.
``AT&T excludes iPhone buyers who experienced activation
delays, as well as additional units sold but not activated until
after the weekend, as well as those purchased for gifts, and non-
U.S. buyers,'' analyst Mike Abramsky said in a report.
``Incorporating these factors suggests Apple may have sold''
350,000 to 450,000 phones in the first weekend.

 

[mikec#IM]

This is off topic, but I just have to bring it up. And let me preface this by saying I've had a treo 650 from almost the day it was released, and I have nothing but respect for what palm has done in the past.

But have you guys seen the Foleo review on the treocentral front page? I don't even know what to say, so I'll let you all just read it and laugh on your own.

cmaier,

That's not a review, that's a product placement ad for Palm. ;-)

 

[mikec#IM]

Just noting that predictions weren't all in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range.


He does cite analysts: "With analyst estimates of sales ranging from 50,000 phones on the low end in the first 24 hours to 390,000 for the first weekend..."

One analyst from some no-name company says 50K. Even I would call that absurdly low.

I've already posted my rebuttal.

 

[marcol]

And by the way, I never said "all" were in that range.

Your memory deceives you.

If you are going to quote/assert, please be accurate.

I quoted you directly. Here it is again (emphasis is the bit I quoted above):

Because of their historical record.

I can show you countless examples of analyst of completely blowing it, predicting things (based on their "in-depth" research) that turned out to be so wrong it wasn't even funny.

I thought no was buying "unactivated" iPhones . So activations to me = true users.

I am sure Apple is spinning their numbers as we speak, so that they look a lot better. It's not like they haven't weaseled before before (ex. backdating scandal).

Now, as I have stated, we need to get the data for all of July to get an indication of the numbers.

But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range. Reality sucks for fanboys.

The real question is this - after the uptake in July, will the growth continue a the hyped pace? Will they hit the 18 month mark?

Post 1585 in this thread:

http://discussion.treocentral.com/showpost.php?p=1315715&postcount=1585

(But I still love that avatar).

 

[mikec#IM]

M O S T


American Heritage? Dictionary
adj. Superlative of many, much. Greatest in number: won the most votes.
Greatest in amount, extent, or degree: has the most compassion.
In the greatest number of instances: Most fish have fins.
n. The greatest amount or degree: She has the most to gain.
{Slang} The greatest, best, or most exciting. Used with [the:] That party was
the most!
pron. (used with a sing. or pl. verb) The greatest part or number: Most of the
town was destroyed. Most of the books were missing.
adv. Superlative of much. In or to the highest degree or extent. Used with many
adjectives and adverbs to form the superlative degree: most honest; most
impatiently.
Very: a most impressive piece of writing.
{Informal} Almost: Most everyone agrees.

my argument did not point to any single analyst or Piper Jaffrey, specifically. the original poster said "most analysts" are wrong. based on the above definition it would imply that the greatest number of analysts are wrong. i do believe that many are wrong, i just don't believe that "most" of them are. there are many that are very right in both the credit and equity marketplace.

regards

Again, I posted from 3 major analysts, the ones that said anything. That's most, even though the population of analyst stating something is small.

Why is there such revisionism going on, and such a love of "analyst"

 

[marcol]

One analyst from some no-name company says 50K. Even I would call that absurdly low.

So would I, but that wasn't the point.

 

[mikec#IM]

M O S T


American Heritage? Dictionary
adj. Superlative of many, much. Greatest in number: won the most votes.
Greatest in amount, extent, or degree: has the most compassion.
In the greatest number of instances: Most fish have fins.
n. The greatest amount or degree: She has the most to gain.
{Slang} The greatest, best, or most exciting. Used with [the:] That party was
the most!
pron. (used with a sing. or pl. verb) The greatest part or number: Most of the
town was destroyed. Most of the books were missing.
adv. Superlative of much. In or to the highest degree or extent. Used with many
adjectives and adverbs to form the superlative degree: most honest; most
impatiently.
Very: a most impressive piece of writing.
{Informal} Almost: Most everyone agrees.

my argument did not point to any single analyst or Piper Jaffrey, specifically. the original poster said "most analysts" are wrong. based on the above definition it would imply that the greatest number of analysts are wrong. i do believe that many are wrong, i just don't believe that "most" of them are. there are many that are very right in both the credit and equity marketplace.

regards

Oh, and the credit and equity markets are completely different.

You should avoid topics you know nothing about.

 

[cmaier]

I stand by my statement. Most analysts are wrong. Period.

You keep ignoring my evidence. Perhaps the math confuses you. But it's a simple fact. Since almost all analysts say that almost all of the stocks they cover will do better than the median stock, and since only 50% of stocks could possibly do so, you just need to subtract one number from the other to find out how many are wrong.

Economists have done so. And most analysts are wrong, most of the time.

Sure, the stocks go up, but that's not what they are predicting. They are predicting the stocks will rise faster than the median of all other stocks. And it's impossible for them all to be right. Only half the stocks they pick will do so. And since almost none of them are right all of the time, most analysts are wrong.

The very few people who have any success getting it right are not analysts. They are billionaires.

 

[cmaier]

By "credit" do you mean bonds? The bond market is a lot more stable and easier to predict than the equity market.

 

[mikec#IM]

My post was a response to your statement "But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range".

One instance of a prediction outside of that range is enough to disprove that.

Opps..that's what I get for slang use "all in"; I meant many/most, not every single one. (ex. "They was all in his face", or they was all acting crazy")

I apologize for stating you were misquoting me. I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

I agree it was not "all", but my rebuttal evidence still stands.

 

[marcol]

Opps..that's what I get for slang use "all in"; I meant many/most, not every single one. (ex. "They was all in his face", or they was all acting crazy")

I apologize for stating you were misquoting me. I picked the wrong week to stop sniffing glue.

No problem

I agree it was not "all", but my rebuttal evidence still stands.

Nothing to rebut. My only point was that it wasn't all.

 

[mikec#IM]

Your memory deceives you.


I quoted you directly. Here it is again (emphasis is the bit I quoted above):



Post 1585 in this thread:

http://discussion.treocentral.com/showpost.php?p=1315715&postcount=1585

Yes, it did. I use "all" and "all in" differently, but that's my bad for not being crystal clear.

I apologized as well. I apologize again.

 

[oalvarez]

I stand by my statement. Most analysts are wrong. Period.

You keep ignoring my evidence.

i'm not arguing your point and i'm not ignoring your evidence. i appreciate your stance.

 

[braj]

i'm not arguing your point and i'm not ignoring your evidence. i appreciate your stance.

but still you find it impossible to admit you are wrong?

 

[whmurray]

but still you find it impossible to admit you are wrong?

I think that you have gone from trying to be acknowledged to trying to pick a fight. Let it go.

 

[braj]

I think that you have gone from trying to be acknowledged to trying to pick a fight. Let it go.

I'm not trying to pick a fight, sorry if it seemed like that. I just wanted closure

 

[cmaier]

So I guess Apple's overall numbers greatly exceeded expectations, but i don't see iphone numbers other than the "1 million by end of its first quarter" (which implies they're nowhere near a million yet).

 

[sxtg]

Back at you, big guy. Are you outperforming the average poster...like the vast majority of posters are? :stick:

LOL
From the lack of a comment, I wonder if he gets it yet.