1. marcol's Avatar
    Actually Silverlight is already being ported to Linux.
    You mean Moonlight? Not exactly what you'd call Microsoft supporting the Linux platform directly!

    http://www.regdeveloper.co.uk/2007/0...ght_moonlight/
    07-25-2007 08:40 AM
  2. marcol's Avatar
    But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range.
    With analyst estimates of sales ranging from 50,000 phones on the low end in the first 24 hours to 390,000 for the first weekend, the safest route is to pick a middle number as a likely benchmark, he suggested. "I think Wall Street will be OK with 100,000 phones sold. Certainly anything over 50,000 will be considered at least a moderate success."
    http://www.macnewsworld.com/story/58019.html
    07-25-2007 08:50 AM
  3. surur's Avatar
    (50+390)/2 = 220

    Analysts and maths....

    Anyway, we know Wall street was not OK with AT&T's numbers.

    Surur
    07-25-2007 09:13 AM
  4. cmaier's Avatar
    yes, and? are you saying that "most" equity analysts are proven wrong? placing an "outperform" on the majority of stocks years ago would have been a great bet up to now.

    i still want to see a report saying that most equity analysts are "wrong." that was the posters claim.

    as for stock picking contests (dart-throwers), they're hardly testament.

    Kupe, you have no clue.


    back to the iPhone....we want to keep this thread "on topic." lets see what Apple has to say today
    Dude: by definition "outperform" means "do better than the average." It's impossible for most stocks to outperform the average. Yes, most stocks have risen, but not by MORE THAN THE AVERAGE of all stocks. So, yes, MOST ANALYSTS are wrong. In other words, it's not that most stocks are predicted to rise - it's that ost stocks are predicted to rise faster than the average of all stocks. By freaking definition, if one stock rises FASTER than the average, another stock must rise more slowly. (And i'm talking median, not mean, so it's not that one can just fall a ton and the rest can rise slowly).

    Heck, look at all the analysts who were putting buy recommendations on Enron. Then, go look at WHY they were putting buy recommendaations on Enron. Then go look look at the conflicts of interest (analysts pumping up the stock so that other arms of their firm can get the company's securities business for new issues, mergers, etc.)

    What do you think sarbanes-oxley was all about?

    Seriously, if you don't see the inconsistency you really need to think about it.

    This is a very well known paradox among securities theorists.

    I've also personally seen piper jaffrey analysts make announcements about a company that i worked for that were not only garbage, but were so far off they may as well have been science fiction. To make it even worse, it's not like the real information was secret - everyone I ran into at industry functions knew the real information. It was like the analyst was just making stuff up because it sounded interesting. And, due to securities regulations, the company couldn't correct the moron.
    07-25-2007 09:55 AM
  5. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    Kupe, you have no clue.
    Back at you, big guy. Are you outperforming the average poster...like the vast majority of posters are? :stick:
    07-25-2007 10:08 AM
  6. marcol's Avatar
    (50+390)/2 = 220

    Analysts and maths....

    Anyway, we know Wall street was not OK with AT&T's numbers.
    He certainly was wrong about Wall Street reaction. Point was though that predictions weren't all in the 500K - 1M range mikec said they were.
    07-25-2007 10:20 AM
  7. whmurray's Avatar
    Back at you, big guy. Are you outperforming the average poster...like the vast majority of posters are? :stick:
    "...and where all the children are above average."
    07-25-2007 11:26 AM
  8. mobileman's Avatar
    He certainly was wrong about Wall Street reaction. Point was though that predictions weren't all in the 500K - 1M range mikec said they were.
    Again, I don't know where MikeC got his 1 million units sold number from, but I doubt there were even 1 million units available during the first 30 hours. Hard to sell 1 million units if lets say only 250,000 were available. Maybe MikeC knows something I don't. He may be right though, we will find out tonight.
    07-25-2007 11:40 AM
  9. mikec#IM's Avatar
    ^ right, right.

    that's funny, all of the analysts i know get paid lots and lots of money for being right more times than being wrong.

    hey, thanks for your "lesson" though.
    Ollie, you just need to look a research that was being pumped out by these firms. I suggest 1998,1999 and 2000 to start. You would be amazed.

    If you need a mutual fund example, look no further than Oakmark, who prided themselves on "knowing the companies better than anyone else" and "analyzing the numbers and the market", and who took a huge stake in Mattel, even though it was apparent they were going down the crapper in the 90s. They got sweet talked by a pretty CEO and cost their investors billions.

    The list goes on and on and on. I doubt you know many analysts, as your understanding of financial markets is woefully poor.
    07-25-2007 11:52 AM
  10. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Mikec,

    While you mention reality sucks,
    I'd say it sucks pretty hard for PALM fanboys in general. The past 3 years have been pretty embarrassing for the company on many levels.

    In apple's case, the 150 - 200,000 sold spans over just the past few weeks on one SINGLE carrier - which is pretty darn good. I'd say the 400 - 500,000 number might well be achieved within the year, which is reasonable. However everyone wants all the results to happen right away or else they consider a prediction to be a failure. The usual suspects here can't wait to jump at every opportunity to do so. This is a case in point. Give it 6-12 months, and those predictions will probably come pretty close.

    I'm curious. What were PALM's predictions before each successive product? If any were made, how close did THEY come I wonder, despite being available on MANY different carriers?

    I think the reality of THAT probably sucks a great deal more in the scheme of things..
    Can't disagree - Palm blew it bigtime. Treo is the ONLY thing that is keeping that company afloat. Inept management....classic case study.

    I don't recall Palm's prediction, but I don't recall them being wildly high.

    Now, to compare Apple to Palm is like comparing Jessica Alba to a three-toothed hooker. Apple's is over 1000% bigger. They probably spent more on marketing this year than Palm's entire market cap.
    07-25-2007 12:01 PM
  11. mikec#IM's Avatar
    TRANSLATION: "All the analysts Olvarez knows" = 0
    Bingo.
    07-25-2007 12:03 PM
  12. cmaier's Avatar
    Can't disagree - Palm blew it bigtime. Treo is the ONLY thing that is keeping that company afloat. Inept management....classic case study.

    I don't recall Palm's prediction, but I don't recall them being wildly high.

    Now, to compare Apple to Palm is like comparing Jessica Alba to a three-toothed hooker. Apple's is over 1000% bigger. They probably spent more on marketing this year than Palm's entire market cap.
    This is off topic, but I just have to bring it up. And let me preface this by saying I've had a treo 650 from almost the day it was released, and I have nothing but respect for what palm has done in the past.

    But have you guys seen the Foleo review on the treocentral front page? I don't even know what to say, so I'll let you all just read it and laugh on your own.
    07-25-2007 12:06 PM
  13. mikec#IM's Avatar
    yes, and? are you saying that "most" equity analysts are proven wrong? placing an "outperform" on the majority of stocks years ago would have been a great bet up to now.

    i still want to see a report saying that most equity analysts are "wrong." that was the posters claim.

    as for stock picking contests (dart-throwers), they're hardly testament.

    Kupe, you have no clue.


    back to the iPhone....we want to keep this thread "on topic." lets see what Apple has to say today
    Here's one of many examples:

    http://independentsources.com/2006/05/01/1400/

    And how are dart contest not relevant? Because they prove you wrong?

    I think it's obvious who has no clue.
    07-25-2007 12:12 PM
  14. mikec#IM's Avatar
    People were predicting 1 million sold within the first 30 hours? Thats how long AT&Ts and Apples Quarter lasted for initial sales. Would that even be possible? Did they even have the stock to sell 1 million in the first day and a half? I doubt it. 146,000 activations over 30 hours sounds pretty good to me. I think a weeks worth of sales will be a better indicator, but I'm not even sure we will find that out with Apples announcement.

    MikeC is licking his chops to pounce on any Apple bad news (typical for him), but maybe a little bit of common sense should prevail here. Lets wait for Apples numbers before you can call the launch a failure.
    I'm not licking my chops at all. As I have said before, I likely own more Apple products than anyone here. I hope they do well as a company....but I am not a fanboy/yes-man/reality ignorer.
    07-25-2007 12:15 PM
  15. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Not sure if that was trying to support or detract...fromt he same article:

    ""Anything other than selling out at every store location will be looked at as a disappointment," Rob Walch, host of the Today in iPhone podcast, told MacNewsWorld. "Some even speculate the reason for the Friday launch of the iPhone is to minimize stock market panic if the iPhone sales are not stellar."

    "By the end of the weekend, the iPhones will be completely sold out," he predicted.

    Now, this guy, as far as I can tell, is a podcaster, so it's not like he's in the financial markets. It's just his opinion.
    07-25-2007 12:21 PM
  16. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Dude: by definition "outperform" means "do better than the average." It's impossible for most stocks to outperform the average. Yes, most stocks have risen, but not by MORE THAN THE AVERAGE of all stocks. So, yes, MOST ANALYSTS are wrong. In other words, it's not that most stocks are predicted to rise - it's that ost stocks are predicted to rise faster than the average of all stocks. By freaking definition, if one stock rises FASTER than the average, another stock must rise more slowly. (And i'm talking median, not mean, so it's not that one can just fall a ton and the rest can rise slowly).

    Heck, look at all the analysts who were putting buy recommendations on Enron. Then, go look at WHY they were putting buy recommendaations on Enron. Then go look look at the conflicts of interest (analysts pumping up the stock so that other arms of their firm can get the company's securities business for new issues, mergers, etc.)

    What do you think sarbanes-oxley was all about?

    Seriously, if you don't see the inconsistency you really need to think about it.

    This is a very well known paradox among securities theorists.

    I've also personally seen piper jaffrey analysts make announcements about a company that i worked for that were not only garbage, but were so far off they may as well have been science fiction. To make it even worse, it's not like the real information was secret - everyone I ran into at industry functions knew the real information. It was like the analyst was just making stuff up because it sounded interesting. And, due to securities regulations, the company couldn't correct the moron.
    "I've also personally seen piper jaffrey analysts make announcements about a company that i worked for that were not only garbage, but were so far off they may as well have been science fiction."

    LOL.

    See Ollie, I guess there are other "insane" people around.
    07-25-2007 12:22 PM
  17. marcol's Avatar
    Not sure if that was trying to support or detract
    Just noting that predictions weren't all in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range.

    Now, this guy, as far as I can tell, is a podcaster, so it's not like he's in the financial markets. It's just his opinion.
    He does cite analysts: "With analyst estimates of sales ranging from 50,000 phones on the low end in the first 24 hours to 390,000 for the first weekend..."
    07-25-2007 12:32 PM
  18. mikec#IM's Avatar
    He certainly was wrong about Wall Street reaction. Point was though that predictions weren't all in the 500K - 1M range mikec said they were.
    marcol,

    so the word of a podcaster is evdience of all predictions/forecasts?

    GMAFB.

    Jobs predicted 10M by the end of 2008. Will they make it? Time will tell. Many say that's a very low estimate, and the number will be higher.

    Sorry to pwn ya here, but here's the facts:

    From Bloomberg, 7/3:

    http://www.contracostatimes.com/business/ci_6288689

    Goldman Sachs - 700K, Piper 500K, JP Morgan 300K.

    One chump even said only 50K, and then said, well that was low, it's probably 5 times that (250K). What good is an estiamte when you are off by a factor of 5?

    In other news,

    Bernstein Research said Apple will sell 7 million iPhones in 2007 and 15 million in 2008.


    In today's news:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...79A&refer=home

    The point is that there were a lot of folks making predictions, and the AT&T annoucement blindsided them.

    Like many have said, and I agree, more time is needed to see the numbers over a longer period. But historical revisionism is not needed.
    07-25-2007 12:41 PM
  19. mikec#IM's Avatar
    He certainly was wrong about Wall Street reaction. Point was though that predictions weren't all in the 500K - 1M range mikec said they were.
    And by the way, I never said "all" were in that range.

    If you are going to quote/assert, please be accurate.

    (But I still love that avatar).
    07-25-2007 12:42 PM
  20. oalvarez's Avatar
    Here's one of many examples:

    http://independentsources.com/2006/05/01/1400/

    And how are dart contest not relevant? Because they prove you wrong?

    I think it's obvious who has no clue.
    M O S T


    American Heritage Dictionary
    adj. Superlative of many, much. Greatest in number: won the most votes.
    Greatest in amount, extent, or degree: has the most compassion.
    In the greatest number of instances: Most fish have fins.
    n. The greatest amount or degree: She has the most to gain.
    {Slang} The greatest, best, or most exciting. Used with [the:] That party was
    the most!
    pron. (used with a sing. or pl. verb) The greatest part or number: Most of the
    town was destroyed. Most of the books were missing.
    adv. Superlative of much. In or to the highest degree or extent. Used with many
    adjectives and adverbs to form the superlative degree: most honest; most
    impatiently.
    Very: a most impressive piece of writing.
    {Informal} Almost: Most everyone agrees.

    my argument did not point to any single analyst or Piper Jaffrey, specifically. the original poster said "most analysts" are wrong. based on the above definition it would imply that the greatest number of analysts are wrong. i do believe that many are wrong, i just don't believe that "most" of them are. there are many that are very right in both the credit and equity marketplace.

    regards
    07-25-2007 12:48 PM
  21. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Again, I don't know where MikeC got his 1 million units sold number from, but I doubt there were even 1 million units available during the first 30 hours. Hard to sell 1 million units if lets say only 250,000 were available. Maybe MikeC knows something I don't. He may be right though, we will find out tonight.
    Re: the 1M number:

    http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/07/...startNumber=20

    Obviously, this is first week and not just the weekend.

    I never said anyone on WS published that, although Goldman said 700K.

    I have heard that only 250K units were made for initial release (some rumor on the net) so maybe that is true.

    I don't know anymore than anyone else; jsut connecting some dots.

    I have to believe Apple's number will be higher that AT&T, but maybe not; I thought they couldn't claim revenue from online sales until after the product ships, so that would mean the real surge will be in the July number.

    Who knows...wait and see.
    07-25-2007 12:48 PM
  22. marcol's Avatar
    marcol,

    so the word of a podcaster is evdience of all predictions/forecasts?
    My post was a response to your statement "But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range".

    One instance of a prediction outside of that range is enough to disprove that.
    07-25-2007 12:48 PM
  23. oalvarez's Avatar
    lets see how RBC does today with its predictions:

    Apple Inc. may have sold as many as
    450,000 iPhones in their first two days on sale, according to RBC
    Capital Markets, which said AT&T Inc.'s activation figures may
    not reflect shipments.
    AT&T said yesterday that it activated 146,000 of the phones
    in the first two days of the sales agreement. Apple introduced
    the iPhone, which combines the iPod music player with an e-mail
    phone, on June 29.
    ``AT&T excludes iPhone buyers who experienced activation
    delays, as well as additional units sold but not activated until
    after the weekend, as well as those purchased for gifts, and non-
    U.S. buyers,'' analyst Mike Abramsky said in a report.
    ``Incorporating these factors suggests Apple may have sold''
    350,000 to 450,000 phones in the first weekend.
    07-25-2007 12:52 PM
  24. mikec#IM's Avatar
    This is off topic, but I just have to bring it up. And let me preface this by saying I've had a treo 650 from almost the day it was released, and I have nothing but respect for what palm has done in the past.

    But have you guys seen the Foleo review on the treocentral front page? I don't even know what to say, so I'll let you all just read it and laugh on your own.
    cmaier,

    That's not a review, that's a product placement ad for Palm. ;-)
    07-25-2007 12:52 PM
  25. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Just noting that predictions weren't all in the 500,000 to 1,000,000 range.


    He does cite analysts: "With analyst estimates of sales ranging from 50,000 phones on the low end in the first 24 hours to 390,000 for the first weekend..."
    One analyst from some no-name company says 50K. Even I would call that absurdly low.

    I've already posted my rebuttal.
    07-25-2007 12:53 PM
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