1. cmaier's Avatar
    The on-line sales also didn't continue like they did for the first day, as evidenced by the fact that the website came back to life the next day.

    I'm sure sales were strong, but there's no way they continued the pace off the first few days.
    07-24-2007 06:11 PM
  2. cmaier's Avatar
    maybe longer if you flick past what you're looking for?
    I've actually never done that. Between the built-in drag and the way it freezes as soon as you touch the screen, it's pretty darned precise. And you wouldn't be flicking at super speed since, by using the bar, you are already within a letter or two.

    I agree a keyboard interface would be great, but for what it is, the flick interface and letter bar are remarkably well implemented.
    07-24-2007 06:14 PM
  3. bruckwine's Avatar
    Well I will post about it:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...VtQ&refer=home

    146K activations...sold maybe 200K in first weekend.

    A wee shy of 500K-1M, eh?

    I told ya those numbers were suspect.
    WT*** I thought it was 700K - 1 million! And THAT is why you don't trust these so-called analysts/predictors!
    07-24-2007 06:16 PM
  4. mikec#IM's Avatar
    All just conjecture at this point. AT&T's numbers reflect on what happened, but don't tell the story. (Personally, the few people I know with iphones, including my 2, were activated after AT&T's quarter ended).

    Personally, I'm hoping Apple announces 500,000 or more sales in the first week, for no other reason than the enjoyment of watching all the analysts who initially predicted huge sales, and now have dropped their predictions to absurdly low levels, having to scramble again to explain themselves. (I'm looking at you, Piper Jaffrey. Remember what you did in 1998? Yeah, I didn't think so.)
    Piper Jaffrey is a joke.

    So are most securities analysts.
    07-24-2007 06:27 PM
  5. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Anyone read this story yet?

    "Why is Apple porting its browser to Windows? To take over the world, of course."

    It's actually a good read that ties a couple of things together:

    (1) Apple's port of Safari to Windows
    (2) Web only apps for the iPhone
    Just like iTunes has grown and become more, such is the path of Safari and such.

    Apple is creating/growing the "platform on the platform", so they can rule it all.
    07-24-2007 06:31 PM
  6. Malatesta's Avatar
    Just like iTunes has grown and become more, such is the path of Safari and such.

    Apple is creating/growing the "platform on the platform", so they can rule it all.
    I'm uncomfortable with this approach;

    Apple realizes that this layer will eventually become good enough to displace native personal computer apps.
    But Apple and Google seem keen on it.

    It just seems a way to kill bandwidth though as if Youtube is doing that enough...

    I would rather a hybrid approach: native apps that access some information, like concerted RSS readers. But that's me...
    07-24-2007 06:34 PM
  7. TazUk's Avatar
    Web based apps are great until you loose your internet connection......
    07-24-2007 06:47 PM
  8. oalvarez's Avatar
    Piper Jaffrey is a joke.

    So are most securities analysts.
    because you think so?

    I think that while the numbers appear low it's important to remember that activations while important don't equal sales.
    07-24-2007 06:52 PM
  9. surur's Avatar
    Anyone read this story yet?

    "Why is Apple porting its browser to Windows? To take over the world, of course."

    It's actually a good read that ties a couple of things together:

    (1) Apple's port of Safari to Windows
    (2) Web only apps for the iPhone
    Of note is that the safari browser on the desktop and iPhone are not really the same, so you could not develop for both in a "write once, use anywhere "scenario. The conspiracy theories are overblown.

    Surur
    07-24-2007 06:54 PM
  10. mikec#IM's Avatar
    because you think so?

    I think that while the numbers appear low it's important to remember that activations while important don't equal sales.
    Because of their historical record.

    I can show you countless examples of analyst of completely blowing it, predicting things (based on their "in-depth" research) that turned out to be so wrong it wasn't even funny.

    I thought no was buying "unactivated" iPhones :-). So activations to me = true users.

    I am sure Apple is spinning their numbers as we speak, so that they look a lot better. It's not like they haven't weaseled before before (ex. backdating scandal).

    Now, as I have stated, we need to get the data for all of July to get an indication of the numbers.

    But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range. Reality sucks for fanboys.

    The real question is this - after the uptake in July, will the growth continue a the hyped pace? Will they hit the 18 month mark?
    07-24-2007 08:20 PM
  11. oalvarez's Avatar
    "because of their historical record"

    where do you come up with this stuff?
    07-24-2007 09:12 PM
  12. braj's Avatar
    "because of their historical record"

    where do you come up with this stuff?
    I think it's called 'school'.
    07-24-2007 09:17 PM
  13. oalvarez's Avatar
    ^ right, right.

    that's funny, all of the analysts i know get paid lots and lots of money for being right more times than being wrong.

    hey, thanks for your "lesson" though.
    07-24-2007 09:50 PM
  14. cmaier's Avatar
    ^ right, right.

    that's funny, all of the analysts i know get paid lots and lots of money for being right more times than being wrong.

    hey, thanks for your "lesson" though.
    Analysts are provably wrong more often than they are right. A study done a few years ago showed that the majority of stocks (i forget the number. something like 75 or 80%) get "outperform" ratings by analysts.

    In other words, the consensus analyst opinion is that 3/4 of stocks will do better than the average stock. Think about it.
    07-24-2007 09:54 PM
  15. braj's Avatar
    Wasn't there a study that showed bare-assed monkeys could randomly pick winners with greater frequency? OK, maybe I made that one up.

    EDIT: actually I believe it was dart-throwing monkeys
    07-24-2007 09:57 PM
  16. mikec#IM's Avatar
    I think it's called 'school'.
    ROTFLMAO!
    07-25-2007 01:36 AM
  17. treobk214's Avatar
    Mikec,

    While you mention reality sucks,
    I'd say it sucks pretty hard for PALM fanboys in general. The past 3 years have been pretty embarrassing for the company on many levels.

    In apple's case, the 150 - 200,000 sold spans over just the past few weeks on one SINGLE carrier - which is pretty darn good. I'd say the 400 - 500,000 number might well be achieved within the year, which is reasonable. However everyone wants all the results to happen right away or else they consider a prediction to be a failure. The usual suspects here can't wait to jump at every opportunity to do so. This is a case in point. Give it 6-12 months, and those predictions will probably come pretty close.

    I'm curious. What were PALM's predictions before each successive product? If any were made, how close did THEY come I wonder, despite being available on MANY different carriers?

    I think the reality of THAT probably sucks a great deal more in the scheme of things..
    07-25-2007 02:02 AM
  18. braj's Avatar
    This thread is about Apple though, not Palm, correct? I doubt few here would disagree Palm has been disappointing us over the last few years. Are there any 'fanboys' left really?
    07-25-2007 02:26 AM
  19. treobk214's Avatar
    ....and particularly since RIMM is consistently beating the living daylights out of palm in general in the corporate market.

    Amusingly, that's the very sector palm was going after with their "business" smartphones. They've failed miserably when you compare the prevalence of blackberries to treos in the corporate arena.
    07-25-2007 02:29 AM
  20. marcol's Avatar
    But Apple and Google seem keen on it.
    Not just Apple and Google but Microsoft and others too according to Michael Mace:

    If in the future we're in a situation where the apps can run on any device via the browser, the traditional OS companies lose most of their power. This cuts the heart out of Microsoft -- and it does something similar to Apple as well.

    I think Apple's action is an example of a company that depends on the OS-centric model trying to prepare itself for the Web-centric world. The other competitors working this issue include:

    --Microsoft Silverlight
    --Adobe Apollo (or whatever they call it these days)
    --What Sun is trying to do with Java
    --Firefox 3's offline apps support
    --Maybe Google Gears (although it's pretty rudimentary at the moment)
    --And now maybe Apple with Safari
    Interesting that there's OS X and Windows versions of both Safari and Silverlight. Is Linux the common enemy?
    07-25-2007 05:28 AM
  21. bruckwine's Avatar
    Mikec,

    While you mention reality sucks,
    I'd say it sucks pretty hard for PALM fanboys in general. The past 3 years have been pretty embarrassing for the company on many levels.

    In apple's case, the 150 - 200,000 sold spans over just the past few weeks on one SINGLE carrier - which is pretty darn good. I'd say the 400 - 500,000 number might well be achieved within the year, which is reasonable. However everyone wants all the results to happen right away or else they consider a prediction to be a failure. The usual suspects here can't wait to jump at every opportunity to do so. This is a case in point. Give it 6-12 months, and those predictions will probably come pretty close.

    I'm curious. What were PALM's predictions before each successive product? If any were made, how close did THEY come I wonder, despite being available on MANY different carriers?

    I think the reality of THAT probably sucks a great deal more in the scheme of things..
    This thread is about Apple though, not Palm, correct? I doubt few here would disagree Palm has been disappointing us over the last few years. Are there any 'fanboys' left really?
    ....and particularly since RIMM is consistently beating the living daylights out of palm in general in the corporate market.

    Amusingly, that's the very sector palm was going after with their "business" smartphones. They've failed miserably when you compare the prevalence of blackberries to treos in the corporate arena.
    I must say you're consistent treobk214...this thread was going good until you started to drag it back into the same old "but Palm" cliche. This thread is in the "other handhelds" and is not about Palm..there are plenty of those on the main boards. It's not a thread about RIMM either unless it directly affects why the iPhone may stink or not (see the OP). Can you try and not to meander so for the sake of continuity (unless your aim is to garbage the thread) - all we'll end up with is the usual tired posts on Palm, the Foleo etc rather than the discussion on apple's new product!
    07-25-2007 05:46 AM
  22. surur's Avatar
    Interesting that there's OS X and Windows versions of both Safari and Silverlight. Is Linux the common enemy?
    Actually Silverlight is already being ported to Linux. Thats the beauty of a technology being an open standard.

    Surur
    07-25-2007 05:56 AM
  23. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    that's funny, all of the analysts i know get paid lots and lots of money for being right more times than being wrong.

    hey, thanks for your "lesson" though.
    TRANSLATION: "All the analysts Olvarez knows" = 0
    07-25-2007 07:28 AM
  24. oalvarez's Avatar
    Analysts are provably wrong more often than they are right. A study done a few years ago showed that the majority of stocks (i forget the number. something like 75 or 80%) get "outperform" ratings by analysts.

    In other words, the consensus analyst opinion is that 3/4 of stocks will do better than the average stock. Think about it.
    yes, and? are you saying that "most" equity analysts are proven wrong? placing an "outperform" on the majority of stocks years ago would have been a great bet up to now.

    i still want to see a report saying that most equity analysts are "wrong." that was the posters claim.

    as for stock picking contests (dart-throwers), they're hardly testament.

    Kupe, you have no clue.


    back to the iPhone....we want to keep this thread "on topic." lets see what Apple has to say today
    07-25-2007 07:47 AM
  25. mobileman's Avatar
    But still, no one predicted 150K in that first weekend...it was all in the 500K to 1M range. Reality sucks for fanboys.
    People were predicting 1 million sold within the first 30 hours? Thats how long AT&Ts and Apples Quarter lasted for initial sales. Would that even be possible? Did they even have the stock to sell 1 million in the first day and a half? I doubt it. 146,000 activations over 30 hours sounds pretty good to me. I think a weeks worth of sales will be a better indicator, but I'm not even sure we will find that out with Apples announcement.

    MikeC is licking his chops to pounce on any Apple bad news (typical for him), but maybe a little bit of common sense should prevail here. Lets wait for Apples numbers before you can call the launch a failure.
    07-25-2007 08:23 AM
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