1. braj's Avatar
    400 000 is much less than the expected 1 000 000

    To give an interesting alternate perspective, the Samsung Blackjack sold 500 000 in 3 months, and was considered a roaring success because of this.

    Surur
    It's all about managing expectations. Apple could have set the bar low but they probably wanted the biggest splash possible. Had they said they were aiming @ 100,000 and hit 300,000 it would have looked like an enormous success. @ 300,000 from a market penetration perspective it is huge, no doubts about it, but they made their bed and Wall Street will be saying they failed to meet expectations.
    07-24-2007 04:57 PM
  2. mobileman's Avatar
    It's all about managing expectations. Apple could have set the bar low but they probably wanted the biggest splash possible. Had they said they were aiming @ 100,000 and hit 300,000 it would have looked like an enormous success. @ 300,000 from a market penetration perspective it is huge, no doubts about it, but they made their bed and Wall Street will be saying they failed to meet expectations.
    What was the bar that apple set for first week sales? Havn't seen that reported anywhere.
    07-24-2007 04:59 PM
  3. Malatesta's Avatar
    I see what your saying, but if Apple sells 400,000 units in a weeks time, you consider it a failure?
    I think what Surur said is accurate: 400,000 is certainly still very high and if they didn't break any records that'd be extraordinarily surprising.

    But it's all context

    (a) In terms of market predictions/expectations: meet, exceed or fall below?
    (b) Trend: did they peak that weekend and the sales dwindled? Did they peak that weekend but sales held consistent at a relatively high level? Did they not peak till mid week? Fill in X scenario here, etc. etc.

    Obviously (a) is just snapshot but (b) will be more interesting as we'll may begin to see some long-term predictions.

    Personally, I think sales will be strong but below expectations. I also think with the rapid advancement of the industry as a whole, it'll be difficult for Apple to remain "fresh" in the market as more and more devices (with new features, cheaper, more stylish) flood the market in the coming months.

    Apple can counter that by (1) releasing a lower-level device in 6 months (2) a 3g device next year (3) "Big" software updates that significantly improve the device with new functions along with correlating promotion of the new "revision".
    07-24-2007 05:02 PM
  4. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    I would not want to gloat and look stupid in 2 days time when Apple releases the full week numbers. We shall see. If full weekend numbers are less than 300 000, or the full week numbers are less than 500 000 I will call it a failure, not because the numbers are not actually great (because they are) but because of the difference between the numbers and the much hyped expectations.
    The overinflated numbers reported by the press from the first two days is the same sort of group-think that makes you want to go invade a country for no good reason! A slam-dunk, if you will.

    Still, it's possible over 500,000 phones were sold in the first two days, but AT&T's abysmal sign up process prevented the new owners from actually getting online. You might say the AT&T weak link retarded the whole process.
    07-24-2007 05:05 PM
  5. surur's Avatar
    be difficult for Apple to remain "fresh" in the market as more and more devices (with new features, cheaper, more stylish) flood the market in the coming months.
    How can anyone make a more stylish device than Apple?

    Surur
    07-24-2007 05:07 PM
  6. surur's Avatar
    Still, it's possible over 500,000 phones were sold in the first two days, but AT&T's abysmal sign up process prevented the new owners from actually getting online. You might say the AT&T weak link retarded the whole process.
    AT&T claimed only 2% of buyers had activation problems.

    Surur
    07-24-2007 05:08 PM
  7. braj's Avatar
    What was the bar that apple set for first week sales? Havn't seen that reported anywhere.
    You're right, that was analysts, Jobs predicted 10 million in the first 18 months. I misspoke. Still, I do believe Apple generated the hype that generated the estimates.
    07-24-2007 05:08 PM
  8. oalvarez's Avatar
    146,000 "activations" for less than two days of sales. i'm sure we'll see a different number come this wednesday (3q07 earnings). i'm not saying good nor bad, just saying that the number that will hopefully be reported on wednesday to be materially different.

    having said that, lets see if this helps push them to release fixes/updates and perhaps even a 3G device sooner than later.
    07-24-2007 05:09 PM
  9. cmaier's Avatar
    The overinflated numbers reported by the press from the first two days is the same sort of group-think that makes you want to go invade a country for no good reason! A slam-dunk, if you will.

    Still, it's possible over 500,000 phones were sold in the first two days, but AT&T's abysmal sign up process prevented the new owners from actually getting online. You might say the AT&T weak link retarded the whole process.
    All just conjecture at this point. AT&T's numbers reflect on what happened, but don't tell the story. (Personally, the few people I know with iphones, including my 2, were activated after AT&T's quarter ended).

    Personally, I'm hoping Apple announces 500,000 or more sales in the first week, for no other reason than the enjoyment of watching all the analysts who initially predicted huge sales, and now have dropped their predictions to absurdly low levels, having to scramble again to explain themselves. (I'm looking at you, Piper Jaffrey. Remember what you did in 1998? Yeah, I didn't think so.)
    07-24-2007 05:12 PM
  10. cmaier's Avatar
    AT&T claimed only 2% of buyers had activation problems.

    Surur
    I'm sure ma bell ain't undercounting one iota.

    (BTW: by the same line of logic where a bunch of complaints about crashes on line means all iphones crash, I say a bunch of people complaining about activation problems means no one could activate :-)
    07-24-2007 05:13 PM
  11. surur's Avatar
    (BTW: by the same line of logic where a bunch of complaints about crashes on line means all iphones crash, I say a bunch of people complaining about activation problems means no one could activate :-)
    The same thought occurred to me, but I thought I better not articulate it

    Funny how these things cut both ways, doesn't it.

    Surur
    07-24-2007 05:19 PM
  12. mobileman's Avatar
    To give an interesting alternate perspective, the Samsung Blackjack sold 500 000 in 3 months, and was considered a roaring success because of this.

    Surur
    I always wondered about this. Is the Blackjack the best selling WM device ever?
    07-24-2007 05:35 PM
  13. samkim's Avatar
    Why are people expecting Apple to announce full week sales? Their quarter ends June 30 just like AT&T, right? Meaning, unless someone knows otherwise, I'd expect them to report sales through June 30. I suppose they could release more numbers just because people are curious...
    07-24-2007 05:38 PM
  14. mobileman's Avatar
    Why are people expecting Apple to announce full week sales? Their quarter ends June 30 just like AT&T, right? Meaning, unless someone knows otherwise, I'd expect them to report sales through June 30. I suppose they could release more numbers just because people are curious...
    Another interesting thing about AT&Ts announcement was their quarter ended June 30. So first weekend of sales actually only consisted of Friday night, and saturday sales. 146,000 activations in 1.25 days. Not to bad.
    07-24-2007 05:41 PM
  15. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    AT&T claimed only 2% of buyers had activation problems.
    Yes, yes. I believe that AT&T report was provided by the "500,000+ iPhone sales in the first weekend" guy.
    07-24-2007 05:43 PM
  16. cmaier's Avatar
    I don't think anyone expects apple to announce a week. the time frame was not a material part of the commentary.
    07-24-2007 05:43 PM
  17. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    I don't think anyone expects apple to announce a week. the time frame was not a material part of the commentary.
    They will be tempted to report on the entire first week (assuming the numbers are good) to mitigate the impact of AT&T's announcement, whether or not they're material.
    07-24-2007 05:45 PM
  18. cmaier's Avatar
    i doubt the week-long numbers paint a rosier picture than the weekend. I assume the weekend numbers will be surprising high, and that it petered out during the week to a more stable number. In other words, the per-day sales for that first weekend is going to be much higher than for the remaining days. They may, however, report web sales, depending on their accounting method. Their site was completely bogged down for hours after 6pm, so I assume they sold quite a lot.
    07-24-2007 05:48 PM
  19. marcol's Avatar
    (b) Trend: did they peak that weekend and the sales dwindled? Did they peak that weekend but sales held consistent at a relatively high level? Did they not peak till mid week? Fill in X scenario here, etc. etc.
    Hard to say but by Saturday evening (June 30) they'd sold out in all AT&T stores and 24 of the 164 Apple stores:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2007/06/30/...ut-of-iphones/

    By July 5 they'd sold out almost everywhere:

    http://www.macrumors.com/2007/07/05/...stores-almost/

    This tells us two things I think:

    1) to a certain extent sales in the first w/end were constrained by supply (at the stores that sold out within 30 hours of launch);

    2) it kept selling (probably in reasonable numbers) beyond Saturday evening (as the other stores would sell out a few days later).
    07-24-2007 05:49 PM
  20. surur's Avatar
    Why are people expecting Apple to announce full week sales?
    To fix this.


    Surur
    07-24-2007 05:54 PM
  21. mobileman's Avatar
    i doubt the week-long numbers paint a rosier picture than the weekend. I assume the weekend numbers will be surprising high, and that it petered out during the week to a more stable number. In other words, the per-day sales for that first weekend is going to be much higher than for the remaining days. They may, however, report web sales, depending on their accounting method. Their site was completely bogged down for hours after 6pm, so I assume they sold quite a lot.
    Well, if first week sales were constant to the first 1.25 days (reported by AT&T), then apple would have sold over 800,000 in the first week.
    07-24-2007 05:56 PM
  22. cmaier's Avatar
    That's silly. I'm pretty sure the lines around the apple and at&t stores didn't last for the full week.
    07-24-2007 06:01 PM
  23. Malatesta's Avatar
    Anyone read this story yet?

    "Why is Apple porting its browser to Windows? To take over the world, of course."

    It's actually a good read that ties a couple of things together:

    (1) Apple's port of Safari to Windows
    (2) Web only apps for the iPhone
    07-24-2007 06:03 PM
  24. mobileman's Avatar
    That's silly. I'm pretty sure the lines around the apple and at&t stores didn't last for the full week.
    Of course not, but I'm sure on-line sales, plus word of mouth sales were pretty strong. Also, don't assume that a lot of people just didn't want to wait in-line and went to the store a few days later to get one.
    07-24-2007 06:08 PM
  25. bruckwine's Avatar
    Would be an interesting experiment. "touch the letter" takes the same amount of time, in theory, as typing the first letter.

    After that, the drag/flick would take somewhere around the effort of typing another letter or two.

    I'd prefer a typing interface, but not sure the letter-bar is that much worse for most people. (once you get around 100 contacts per a letter, the iphone method gets ugly.)
    maybe longer if you flick past what you're looking for?
    07-24-2007 06:10 PM
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