1. surur's Avatar
    This is really tiring. Let it go already.
    You know you are actually the one who dragged up an old thread, don't you?

    Surur
    06-22-2007 10:49 AM
  2. Hellenek's Avatar
    Really? My apologies. In my time zone, the last post was yesterday...
    06-22-2007 10:53 AM
  3. surur's Avatar
    Yes, more than 36 hours ago. I think people have "Let it go" already.

    Surur
    06-22-2007 11:01 AM
  4. archie's Avatar
    Your assuming EVERYBODY patrols the iPhone thread to downplay any positive iPhone comments at a seconds notice.

    I would say the average user doesn't visit this forum nearly as often as you do.
    06-22-2007 04:54 PM
  5. surur's Avatar
    If you are going to complain about people going on and on it may be wise to see if they are actually still going on and on...

    Surur
    06-22-2007 04:57 PM
  6. conekkted's Avatar
    Please don't forget that this HTC still has to run on a windows platform. It is starting a race with the iPhone with one leg tied behind its back.
    06-22-2007 06:01 PM
  7. surur's Avatar
    Please don't forget that this HTC still has to run on a windows platform. It is starting a race with the iPhone with one leg tied behind its back.
    You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell, and that 20 million WM phones are projected to be sold next year.

    Surur
    06-22-2007 06:06 PM
  8. conekkted's Avatar
    Hey, I am a SOLID fan of my Cingy 750. I don't know of any other phone that can do anything better than my customized 750. But you all underestimate the spell that Apple has on the generation X, Y and Zers (not to mention some of their parents). All I am saying is that you can talk about lack of features on the iPhone until you are blue in the face. It will still sell 10x as many phones as HTC or anyone ese in the next 12 months. And many of you HTC and Palm users (including me) will reap huge benefits from these guys trying to catch up to iPhone in the ease-of-use category. So don't knock it...it's a blessing in disguise.
    06-22-2007 10:22 PM
  9. braj's Avatar
    And many of you HTC and Palm users (including me) will reap huge benefits from these guys trying to catch up to iPhone in the ease-of-use category. So don't knock it...it's a blessing in disguise.
    I totally agree. And hopefully they in turn will force Apple to make changes for the better.
    06-22-2007 11:24 PM
  10. surur's Avatar
    All I am saying is that you can talk about lack of features on the iPhone until you are blue in the face. It will still sell 10x as many phones as HTC or anyone ese in the next 12 months.
    Are you serious? So Apple will sell 100 to 200 million iPhones over the next 12 months? Thats RDF really got to you, didn't it.

    Surur
    06-23-2007 03:37 AM
  11. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    And many of you HTC and Palm users (including me) will reap huge benefits from these guys trying to catch up to iPhone in the ease-of-use category.
    Competition is always a good thing, but after watching the iPhone video I just didn't see the "ease-of-use" advantage. Besides the requirement to use two-hands/eyes-on to control the phone's features, many aspects of its operation were more kludgey than my $50 Moto Q smart phone (like selecting a contact to dial).

    Where iPhone shines is esthetics - apple has always been top-notch at combining form and function. In this regard, I hope the WM development community is watching - and learning. Things don't have to be klunky to be functional!
    06-23-2007 04:53 AM
  12. marcol's Avatar
    You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell, and that 20 million WM phones are projected to be sold next year.
    Where the heck do you get that from? More than 10 million per annum?

    WM was about 14% of the 64 million unit smartphone market in (calendar) 2006:

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006043.htm
    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006071.htm
    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm

    So total WM devices (based on Canalys figures) ~9 million units; that number accords pretty well with Microsoft themselves say in the article you linked (which implies 10 million units in fiscal 2007). HTC are just a fraction of this, and not one of the leading manufacturers, e.g.:

    Nokia: Q4 2005 54%, Q4 2006 50%
    RIM: Q4 2005 7%, Q4 2006 8%
    Motorola: Q4 2005 5%, Q4 2006 7%
    Palm Q4 2005 9%, Q4 2006 5%
    Sony Ericsson: Q4 2005 0.6%, Q4 2006 5%
    Others: Q4 2005 24%, Q4 2006 24%

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm

    For HTC to be 'already selling' as many phones as Apple hopes to sell they'd have to be have 100% of the WM market - they don't - or sell non-WM phones - as far as I can tell that's not true either:

    http://www.europe.htc.com/products/
    06-23-2007 05:32 AM
  13. marcol's Avatar
    Also, HTC is far from a company without any troubles. This from the FT recently:

    HTC launches its first mass-market phone
    By Kathrin Hille in Taipei
    Published: June 6 2007 00:38 | Last updated: June 6 2007 00:38

    HTC, the global market leader for Windows-based mobile devices, has launched its first mass-market phone in an attempt to create new growth after losing contract manufacturing orders and witnessing a rise in competition in its traditional niche of high-end smart phones.

    The HTC Touch, a small, stylish smartphone that can be navigated with one hand through touch-screen technology, marks “the first time we move beyond our niche of business devices”, Peter Chou, HTC president, told the Financial Times.

    Analysts think it has the potential to help turn round a prolonged drop in HTC’s share price.

    After peaking at T$1,220 in March 2006, the company’s shares started to slide, triggered by its announcements that it would acquire Dopod, a handset vendor controlled by family members of HTC’s chairwoman, and that it would start selling its phones under its own brand.

    In March, the share price had melted to T$425, driven by the loss of contract manufacturing orders and investor fears that margins would suffer from the lack of new growth drivers.

    Investors have also expressed doubt whether the Windows niche will be big enough in the long term and whether HTC can keep ahead within this market given that Microsoft has also licensed many other handset companies.

    These concerns are being addressed with the new model, Mr Chou says. “From the HTC Touch, you can clearly see our capability to differentiate ourselves.”

    Apart from the touch-screen technology, the new device also has an easier user interface to make it more suitable for consumers, who have struggled with the complicated Windows interface.

    The new phone would be sold under the HTC brand as well as a customised model for telecommunications operators.

    T-Mobile will take it on board as part of its MDA series while Orange will sell it under the HTC Touch name.
    06-23-2007 05:38 AM
  14. surur's Avatar
    HTC is around 80% of the WM market, and at present they are going through a difficult transition. They are shedding their ODM business, leading to lower sales and revenue, and taking on more risk, which is reflected in their stock price.

    They are still doing very interesting things, and the HTC Touch looks like its going to be a hit, with sales projected at 2 million for the next 5 months.

    So yes, HTC is already doing what Apple wants to do, and will sell more phones than Apple in 2008.

    Also note I said WM will sell 20 million next year, not HTC.

    Surur
    06-23-2007 05:50 AM
  15. marcol's Avatar
    Also note I said WM will sell 20 million next year, not HTC.
    Yes you did, but you also said:

    You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell
    I did quote your whole post i.e.:

    You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell, and that 20 million WM phones are projected to be sold next year.
    but it is extremely clear that I was responding to 'You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell'. That is, as far as I can tell, a very long way from the truth. I didn't address Microsoft's prediction of what they would do in the future at all.
    06-23-2007 06:22 AM
  16. surur's Avatar
    but it is extremely clear that I was responding to 'You know HTC already sells as many phones as Apple hopes to sell'. That is, as far as I can tell, a very long way from the truth. I didn't address Microsoft's prediction of what they would do in the future at all.
    How so? How many does Apple project to sell? 10 million? WM does more than that, and HTC is 80% of that. Where's the problem?

    Surur
    06-23-2007 06:34 AM
  17. marcol's Avatar
    How so? How many does Apple project to sell? 10 million? WM does more than that, and HTC is 80% of that. Where's the problem?
    Canalys numbers suggest 9 million WM (calendar 2006), Microsoft say 10 million (fiscal 2007). Even going with your 80% figure (do you have a link?) we get 7.2 million (80% of 9 million ) or 8 million (80% of 10 million). You think 8 is more than 10?
    06-23-2007 06:48 AM
  18. surur's Avatar
    Canalys numbers suggest 9 million WM (calendar 2006), Microsoft say 10 million (fiscal 2007). Even going with your 80% figure (do you have a link?) we get 7.2 million (80% of 9 million ) or 8 million (80% of 10 million). You think 8 is more than 10?
    You would note we are already halfway into 2007, so 2006 numbers do not tell us whats happening "already". With the growth in the market I am confident their running total is around 10 million. The 80% is a well known number - have you not come across it before?
    http://www.google.co.uk/search?hl=en...s+mobile&meta=

    Surur
    06-23-2007 06:52 AM
  19. marcol's Avatar
    You would note we are already halfway into 2007, so 2006 numbers do not tell us whats happening "already". With the growth in the market I am confident their running total is around 10 million.
    Fair point for the Canalys numbers, but not for the 10 million for fiscal year 2007 that comes from Microsoft. Microsoft fiscal year ends June 30th. This is silly. 80% of 10 million is less than 10 million!
    06-23-2007 07:00 AM
  20. marcol's Avatar
    Also, again, can you substantiate that HTC sell 80% of all WM devices?
    06-23-2007 07:01 AM
  21. surur's Avatar
    Also, again, can you substantiate that HTC sell 80% of all WM devices?
    As I said, its a well-known number.
    http://midmarket.eweek.com/article/H.../206224_1.aspx

    Surur
    06-23-2007 07:15 AM
  22. Kupe#WP's Avatar
    Also, again, can you substantiate that HTC sell 80% of all WM devices?
    Also, HTC makes the WM devices for Palm so they get a share of the Palm numbers on that Canalys list.
    06-23-2007 08:51 AM
  23. marcol's Avatar
    Thanks.

    Glad to see you seem to have conceded the main point, finally!
    06-23-2007 10:30 AM
  24. marcol's Avatar
    Anyway, on to more interesting things...

    HTC is around 80% of the WM market, and at present they are going through a difficult transition. They are shedding their ODM business, leading to lower sales and revenue, and taking on more risk, which is reflected in their stock price.

    They are still doing very interesting things, and the HTC Touch looks like its going to be a hit, with sales projected at 2 million for the next 5 months.

    So yes, HTC is already doing what Apple wants to do, and will sell more phones than Apple in 2008.
    I agree with Chou that they need to move beyond the "niche of business devices" if they want to really expand their market share. Best evidence for this is the success Nokia has with a (predominantly) consumer-oriented smartphone approach. The Touch seems like a step in the right direction, but I suspect they'll really need photon and a more far reaching UI redesign than TouchFLO gives. The alternative would be to consider licensing Symbian. UIQ could be quite a good match IMO.

    As to whether they'll sell more than Apple in 2008, that's very far from a certainty. If iPhone sales come close to the numbers suggested by some of the polls, Apple could sell more phones in the US alone than HTC will globally.
    06-23-2007 10:46 AM
  25. surur's Avatar
    Most people who think they are making reasonably estimates for the iphone say 14 million for 2008. Apple only says 10 million in 2008. HTC should sell 16 million, and at least beat 10 million.

    Surur
    06-23-2007 11:31 AM
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