N95 and iPhone: a smartphone revolution?

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Using those canalys numbers, which put PalmOS Treo's shipped at 400 000, add in palm's sellthrough numbers of 524 000 for the same period, and we can see about 125 000 WM Treo's were sold in Q4 2006, about 25% of Palm's sales.

Also, using those same numbers which Symbian so kindly provided, we can see the Wm Smartphone segment has shown high YoY growth (125%), much higher than the mature Symbian segment in fact, and with breakout devices like the Samsung Blackjack and the T-Mobile Dash doing pretty well we can expect a significant boost in those numbers for Q1 2007.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Fair comment. Canalys are splitting what most of us would call 'smartphones' into 'smartphones' and 'wireless handhelds' and:

Smart mobile devices = smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs

I suspect (but don't know for sure) that you're right and Symbian just took the smartphone part of the equation and hence Microsoft ended up with just 4.6%. So (probably) for Q4 2006 Microsoft had:

14% of smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs

and

4.6% of smartphones (excl. what canalys define as 'wireless handhelds')

without paying for the report it's impossible to say exactly how the WM devices split between 'smartphones', 'wireless handhelds' and PDAs but I do suspect that Microsoft's OS is on a comparatively large proportion of PDAs (more than Symbian is) so Microsoft's share of the smartphone (as you and I would define the term) market is less than 14% but more than 4.7%.
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Also, using those same numbers which Symbian so kindly provided, we can see the Wm Smartphone segment has shown high YoY growth (125%), much higher than the mature Symbian segment in fact, and with breakout devices like the Samsung Blackjack and the T-Mobile Dash doing pretty well we can expect a significant boost in those numbers for Q1 2007.
Remember though that we just agreed that's probably only part of the story. Over the last couple years WM has seen a big fall in the % it has of its whole market. I wonder if that can all be ascribed to a collapse in PDAs or if what canalys calls 'wireless handhelds' (it's possible they mean anything with WM PPC as opposed to WM Smartphone) also exhibit declining share?
 

oalvarez

Well-known member
Apr 25, 2004
825
0
0
Visit site
This describes the IPhone too. I thought you were a fan?

Surur

i'm a fan because it's not a brick and outdated like the treo. having said that, i can't comment on how it's going to work for me especially given the fact that i've never used a keyboard of its type.

Surur, i basically have grown to hate big and bulky treos and anything with a slide out keyboard, but i think you knew that. i am a fan of slim and thin.

see ya
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Remember though that we just agreed that's probably only part of the story. Over the last couple years WM has seen a big fall in the % it has of its whole market. I wonder if that can all be ascribed to a collapse in PDAs or if what canalys calls 'wireless handhelds' (it's possible they mean anything with WM PPC as opposed to WM Smartphone) also exhibit declining share?

A large part of the declining share is Nokia pushing Symbian downmarket, thereby increasing the market more rapidly than the normally higher end Smartphone market would naturally grow.

The WM market is currently undergoing the same transition, but by using two different OS's. WM Standard phones have always been a smaller segment of the WM market, but as the devices filter into the general consumer market these phone-like devices have grown at a much faster rate than the WM market itself. WM by itself does about 40% YoY, while the smartphone segment is growing much faster. If you think of hit WM devices these days with mass market appeal, we are much more likely to think of the Q, Dash and Blackjack than for example the HTC TyTn or M700. This is because these devices are a lot smaller, cheaper and more pocketable.

What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices, and will therefore not have the huge success you anticipate.

Surur
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Surur, i basically have grown to hate big and bulky treos and anything with a slide out keyboard, but i think you knew that. i am a fan of slim and thin.

see ya

I'm cool with that. That's where the industry is going in any case. Most of us here however are prepared to compromise on size to get added (possibly unnecessary) functionality, but eventually we will be able to have our cake and eat it too. We however are only a small segment of the market.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
A large part of the declining share is Nokia pushing Symbian downmarket, thereby increasing the market more rapidly than the normally higher end Smartphone market would naturally grow.
Of course, but, as you pointed out, against this background the simpler WM devices (what canalys calls 'smartphones') are showing growth in their marketshare. I was simply wondering if this is also true of the more complex, higher-end devices (what Canalys calls 'wireless handhelds') or if they're failing to grow their marketshare. Interesting I think if there really is a shift to the simpler WM phones.

What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices,
You could convince me of that but you'll have to do better than just saying it's so. It seems to me the N95 is unlike the TyTN but like the mass market Nokia smartphones in several ways:

Made by Nokia
Has Symbian/S60
No QWERTY
No touchscreen
No stylus is required
Significantly smaller than the TyTN
Significantly lighter than TyTN
Emphasis on consumer features like photos, video and music
Rapidly adopted by many carriers
Free on a contract early in its life-cycle
Heavily advertised

You may recall that I owned a TyTN variant briefly. I was happy enough with most aspects of the OS (some grumbles about the UI, but no deal breakers), but the device was poorly made. The slider was poor, the d-pad was poor, the keyboard was poor, and the Wifi was poor. I truly hope there are never any more phones that are like it in those respects.

and will therefore not have the huge success you anticipate.
We'll see :)
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
To get a Nokia N95 on Vodafone for free you need to pay ?825 in total monthly charges over 18 months. That does not even include a data plan. To get it free on t-mobile you have to pay ?900 over 18 months, also without a data plan.

Unless the people who buy it cant multiply, this moves it out of the mass market.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
To get a Nokia N95 on Vodafone for free you need to pay ?825 in total monthly charges over 18 months. That does not even include a data plan. To get it free on t-mobile you have to pay ?900 over 18 months, also without a data plan.

Unless the people who buy it cant multiply, this moves it out of the mass market.
Do you really think it will stay like that for long? You'll note that the period I made sales predictions for was Q4 2007. If precedent is anything to go by, it'll be a whole lot cheaper by then.

Anyway, I'm not suggesting that the N95 or the iPhone will suddenly become the phones of choice for everybody, that they'll saturate the whole market including the cheapest contracts and pay-as-you-go. But the whole market (globally) is a billion phones a year and smartphones are currently about 8% of this (depending on whose numbers you read). I'm arguing that there's plenty of room at the top for some expansion and that the N95 and the iPhone are well placed to exploit that. In the end of course that's just a guess based on the buzz that both have created (see my first post in this thread) and my feelings about the two devices (I think Nokia and Apple got some design decisions right and they'll have broader appeal than previous smartphones).
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
In the end of course that's just a guess based on the buzz that both have created (see my first post in this thread) and my feelings about the two devices (I think Nokia and Apple got some design decisions right and they'll have broader appeal than previous smartphones).

We'll probably know a lot more about the Iphone than the N95, as Nokia AFAIK does not release individual device sales numbers. I personally do not like the design of the N95, and cant see how the dual slider makes it any more consumer friendly than not. The Iphone is of course very tasty, but has other practicality issues. For the Iphone at least these would probably not influence initial sales however. After the first few 100 get dropped however I think we will hear a lot more about it.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
We'll probably know a lot more about the Iphone than the N95, as Nokia AFAIK does not release individual device sales numbers.
That's true I think although they do break them down into N and E series:

http://www.nokia.com/A4136001?newsid=1119953

I personally do not like the design of the N95, and cant see how the dual slider makes it any more consumer friendly than not.
As I've said, I wouldn't want one myself, but some of the I things I think will appeal are:

  • Big screen (only the second N series slider without a numeric keypad on the front). Good for taking and looking at pictures, recording and watching video, etc
  • High-res camera and pretty decent video recording. Previous N series devices with good cameras have been a bit big and clunky.
  • 3.5 mm headphone jack and dedicated music controls.
  • Built-in GPS (and comes with mapping software).
  • Wifi and HSDPA.

Seems to me it takes the best of things from other Nokia devices (form factor from N80, camera from N93, music controls from the dedicated music phones) and adds great connectivity. I don't think they've made a device before that's as appealing in terms of size looks that has had anything like the funtionality.

The Iphone is of course very tasty, but has other practicality issues. For the Iphone at least these would probably not influence initial sales however. After the first few 100 get dropped however I think we will hear a lot more about it.
Will it be slippery, will the battery die after 40 minutes? :) For sure things like that could hurt it. At this point of course they're just a bunch of internet rumours.
 

oalvarez

Well-known member
Apr 25, 2004
825
0
0
Visit site
i've always argued that many on this board don't even need to compromise size for functionality as so many users simply don't have a need beyond email, internet, and phone. and like you point out, functionality beyond that is sometimes "unnecessary."

it's also interesting to see how much the "other devices" forum has grown in terms of threads and views.....not that it validates my dislike for Treos but simply that it shows how interested so many are in newer and different devices. i suppose it's been beaten to death.

i want to understand the user who pays $800 for a device without a keyboard. asinine in my estimation.
 

Certs

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2005
239
0
0
www.myspace.com
/\ That's going to happen every time a product has been out, virtually unchanged, for so long. They can call the 750 a "new design" all they want, but it is far from the truth. Maybe an auto company can get away with that, not a phone.

Even the razr has lost its mystique. And it is arguably STILL the best thin-designed flip out there. Change is not only good, but necessary in the phone biz...

My only requirements for a phone are to be capable (a smart phone), easy to use, and reliable. The 750 IMO is unreliable, my Blackjack is the most reliable but least capable, and my 8525 is the most capable but least easy to use. If the treo was more reliable it would be my favorite device hands down right now. And most treo 750 users agree, which is so frustrating with that phone.
 

oalvarez

Well-known member
Apr 25, 2004
825
0
0
Visit site
lighter would be most welcomed given my distaste for belt pouches and the like.

hey, at least it gives us something new to talk about! :)
 
Sorry, these quotes are kinda outa order of the dicussion:

N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

oh well, one less device for me to worry about

Battery life is better than the Treo 680.
No keyboard is a downer if you want a communicator, not if you want a phone.

Don't worry about it though. Its good for what it does.

i've always argued that many on this board don't even need to compromise size for functionality as so many users simply don't have a need beyond email, internet, and phone. and like you point out, functionality beyond that is sometimes "unnecessary."

I'm beginning to agree. And also agreeing with the side of things that says that if you want a communicator,then you will not care about the size as long as the keys are large enough to type and the UI is effective enough to get the job done with minimal tweaking. I find that the N95 is a good (enough) phone. Excellent travel device, and horrible email device. My 680 is much better, but the size difference btween the two is too noticeable. If the 680 were less plump, it would a a whole lot more attractive next to such devices IMO.

I personally do not like the design of the N95, and cant see how the dual slider makes it any more consumer friendly than not.

Silly experiment of mine. I let people play with the N95 and you know what, they liked teh slider. Could not care what it did, the fact that it slid two ways was like watching the first episode of Transformers. Folks were mystified. I could not understand it, but its cool to them. Eh...:rolleyes:

What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices,

ooh, good point. Tis a shame too. But I think that the price will come down some (hopefulyl a 50% some).
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Quite possibly true in a literal sense if this is to be believed:

But hear this, this Phone will definitely have the most powerful cpu ever used on a cellphone. Reportedly it’ll be around 1.2Ghz… compare that to 400Mhz processors on most Windows Mobile devices.

http://www.teknojunkie.com/?p=85

which of course it isn't :)

1.2 Ghz? Now the 40 min battery life makes sense.

scotty-simpsons.jpg

"Capt'n, I canna change the laws of physics"

Surur
 

Trending Posts

Forum statistics

Threads
260,011
Messages
1,765,303
Members
441,220
Latest member
waeriyadh