1. Antoine of MMM#IM's Avatar
    I wouldn't say that the N95 doesn't have that feel. It does. As does my 8GB toting Treo 680 (seriously, I said in another thread how Palm could take that SDHC non-mention and parlay that into something very nice and iPhone defeating). But they aren't the same class of device. The N95 is probably better in a BMW versus Merc kinda sense (Bangle butt(ons) and all). But like the Merc in the late 80s early 90s, it had that cachet about it that made people get one despite teh heaviness and flaws.

    The iPhone will have something going for it that Nokia, more specifically Symbian, WM, and Linux, and to a much lesser degree Garnet have not been able to - make the experience of using the device a compelling reason to buy it. To this day, no one gets it; Apple has and if the software holds up (and will be hacked to make sure that it stays on its toes), Apple will have laid a golden egg in the sense of a product that works, not just one that solves a problem (Treos, BBs) or is feature laden (WM, Linux), or has unrealized potential (Symbian).

    I don't think that the iPhone can make it down market easily though. OSX would lose a lot fo money for them if it did. Nokia has that advantage, and if they can push other sides of the mobile pie to do things right (QR codes, mapping, web integration, etc.), there's a chance that despite the iPhone mindshare, the Nokia marketshare will do the better talking in the short and long run.
    04-23-2007 06:56 PM
  2. marcol's Avatar
    The N95 and iPhone probably don't represent a major shift in terms of smartphone adoption as much as it does smartphone mindshare towards the "normal" consumer. Whereas folks in various means know that a phone can do a lot, to have ads and buzz about it constantly coming at you does a bit better than just make you want something more than a RAZR, you start to expect that the $0 phone does do a bit of what the iPhone and N95 do. If you will, the N95 and iPhone are like the car-marker's halo models. Not far enough out of reach to get and touch one (country issues aside), but enough to make you wonder what else could be had if your budget wasn't as high and you didn't need all those features. Its a plant, and probably a successful one. Ironically, RIM, WM, and Palm made the soil fetrile for this kind of marketing.
    Hi Antoine,

    That's an interesting perspective and probably quite true of the US. Consider though that you can get the N95 for free in the UK now if you sign a moderately expensive contract with any UK carrier (e.g. 50 pcm with Vodafone, 45 pcm with T-Mobile). Experience tells us it will certainly be free on cheaper contracts quite soon. It is a "$0 phone"!
    04-24-2007 02:29 AM
  3. Antoine of MMM#IM's Avatar
    Hi Antoine,

    That's an interesting perspective and probably quite true of the US. Consider though that you can get the N95 for free in the UK now if you sign a moderately expensive contract with any UK carrier (e.g. 50 pcm with Vodafone, 45 pcm with T-Mobile). Experience tells us it will certainly be free on cheaper contracts quite soon. It is a "$0 phone"!
    Hey there;
    Yes, unfortunately, I can only speak in parts about the Euro market as I am not there. In the US, the consumer ball game is different.

    My N95 review unit just came in. Honestly speaking, My 680 doesn't look bad next to it. It does look ok in its copper color though. I think that if it were the grey one it would look a bit more dated. You can definitely see the different design phisolophies at play.

    What will be the kicker is when I get it charged and start playing with it in the morning, I will probably be a lot more floored than I am right now.

    One of the aspects that plays into me looking at any device is to get the opinions of people who might have other phones. I saw a lot of Chocloates on the Metro today and am thinking that I might ask for their opinion of the N95 if I see a few folks in the coming days (that will not try and run off with it). It's smaller than the 680 (by a good deal), lighter (by a lot with the battery and no mem-card or SIM), and just has that "feel" about it. Its as nice as my CES memories let me be. And if that impression is anything like what others who aren't into smartphones would do, it will change the game, not so much from a device standpoint, but from a mindshare one.
    04-24-2007 10:37 PM
  4. marcol's Avatar
    Another day another iPhone poll:

    ChangeWave Research conducted a study of tech-savvy professionals which points to high demand for the device, with about one in 10 respondents (or 9 percent) saying they are likely to purchase the iPhone once it becomes available. Another 7 percent said they will likely purchase the device as a gift for someone else. "That's huge," ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith said. "This is going to be a monster." The survey points to a far faster adoption rate than the industry average for consumer electronics products, and Smith suspects that Apple will exceed its sales goals if the iPhone's performance lives up to consumer expectations.

    http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/04/...onster.iphone/
    04-25-2007 12:44 PM
  5. Antoine of MMM#IM's Avatar
    Another day another iPhone poll:

    ChangeWave Research conducted a study of tech-savvy professionals which points to high demand for the device, with about one in 10 respondents (or 9 percent) saying they are likely to purchase the iPhone once it becomes available. Another 7 percent said they will likely purchase the device as a gift for someone else. "That's huge," ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith said. "This is going to be a monster." The survey points to a far faster adoption rate than the industry average for consumer electronics products, and Smith suspects that Apple will exceed its sales goals if the iPhone's performance lives up to consumer expectations.

    http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/04/...onster.iphone/
    I noticed that the other day as well too. Mindshare is a funky thing. Of most of those polled, I wonder how many of them are "tech infulencers" such as we who visit here, versus "tech followed" which is the meat of the consumer market. The iPhone has enough of a cachet being an Apple item, but I wonder if that is enough to get it from being being a totally techie item, just because of what it can do, not necessarly becuase of what it is.
    04-25-2007 05:03 PM
  6. marcol's Avatar
    Steve Ballmer's prediction for iPhone marketshare:

    "There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."


    Ok, let's leave aside that it's just plain odd to compare the percentage of the devices he'd prefer to see have Microsoft software with a prediction of what iPhone might actually get. He predicts 2 or 3% of 1.3 billion - I presume he means this as the annual total for mobile phone sales, although Gartner's estimate for 2006 has the number closer to 1.0 billion:


    Going with his figures, that would be 26-39 million iPhones per year. Although he doesn't specify when he thinks this might happen, those are really pretty big numbers. For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006:


    So Steve's predicting that the iPhone will outsell all WM devices by 3 to 1?

    Also of note:

    Q: When can we look forward to a Zune phone?

    A: It's not a concept you'll ever get from us. We're in the Windows Mobile business. We wouldn't define our phone experience just by music. A phone is really a general purpose device. You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, e-mail, whatever your preference is. The phone really is kind of a general purpose device that we need to have clean and easy to use.
    04-30-2007 06:53 AM
  7. Antoine of MMM#IM's Avatar
    AFter my "play" with teh N95 this weekend, I am more convinced that the Iphone, like the N95, is not at all meant as a smartphone in the sense of a Treo. I prefer my Treo for email and communicating, I prefer the N95 for being a phone . I am pretty sure that the iPhone will be much more the latter than the former.

    Interesting numbers marcol; The iPhone will outsell most WM individual units pretty easily. Heck the N95 is probably doing so by itself now. The question is whther WM will simplify itsself to be more phone like, thereby making it attractive to the non-techie, music-loving, miltimeida liking (but won't want to fiddle and tweak) kind. Right now, the iPhone (and the N95) do that pretty darn well.
    04-30-2007 04:44 PM
  8. marcol's Avatar
    The question is whther WM will simplify itsself to be more phone like, thereby making it attractive to the non-techie, music-loving, miltimeida liking (but won't want to fiddle and tweak) kind.
    I guess if Steve Ballmer is to get anything like his wish of "our software in 60% or 70% or 80%" of phones they need to do something. The proportion of smartphones with WM (or its predecessors) has essentially halved in the last three years. Reading Robbie Bach's comments back in January indicated that the Zune might evolve into a phone:

    'Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft`s entertainment and devices division, said it too is considering a mobile phone integrated with its Zune digital music player, but launching such a device is not at top of its priority list.

    "It`s probably on the table of things for us to look at, but not the number one thing we are focused on," said Bach, speaking to analysts at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas."'

    Ballmer's comments pretty much seem to rule that out though and (taken at face value) say it's WM all the way for Microsoft. I guess there may still be some chance that they'll do phone hardware as well as software, but with WM rather than the Zune OS. It will be very interesting to see what happens to WM over the next couple of years or so.
    04-30-2007 07:05 PM
  9. archie's Avatar
    Such certainty! While we're at the numbers prediction game (to be revisited later of course), care to have have a stab at predicting iPhone sales?

    Here are my guesses. I think punters willl like the N95 much more than the other Nokia N series phones (which comprise 80%+ of Nokia's smartphone sales). Nokia sold 11 million smartphones Q4 2006 and I reckon mostly on the back of N95 that will be up to 20 million Q4 this year. iPhone: Apple said 10 million by end of 2008. That's way below what's suggested by the HarrisInteractive poll (just for the US). I'll go with 20 million for iPhone too (total by end of 2008; a lot will depend on carriers deals and pricing outside of the US). That would still leave Nokia as the biggest fish in the pond, but almost certainly give Apple second place.
    No WAY! I can now see that you are very excited by this device, but its not really a breakout device. Nokia will continue its 50% YoY growth, leading to smartphone sales of about 15 million in Q2 and 16.5 million in Q4, possibly less if the economy has a downturn. The IPhone will sell less than 3 million over the last 6 months of 2007, and much less than 4 million in 2008, due to strong competition from other phone OEM's and satisfied demand from early adopters.

    Surur
    AFter my "play" with teh N95 this weekend, I am more convinced that the Iphone, like the N95, is not at all meant as a smartphone in the sense of a Treo. I prefer my Treo for email and communicating, I prefer the N95 for being a phone . I am pretty sure that the iPhone will be much more the latter than the former.
    The continual def, dumb & blind comments just suck any motivation to correct all of the, ummmm.... "misunderstandings" that people here have in their view of the iPhone.

    I too would like to go on record in predicting sales of the iPhone. I predict 6.5 million the first 6 months and 14.75 million by 2008.
    04-30-2007 08:40 PM
  10. oalvarez's Avatar
    N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

    oh well, one less device for me to worry about
    04-30-2007 09:07 PM
  11. surur's Avatar
    The continual def, dumb & blind comments just suck any motivation to correct all of the, ummmm.... "misunderstandings" that people here have in their view of the iPhone.
    Archie, you are back!!! I Missed you so <3 <3

    N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

    oh well, one less device for me to worry about
    This describes the IPhone too. I thought you were a fan?

    Surur
    05-01-2007 02:23 AM
  12. marcol's Avatar
    N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

    oh well, one less device for me to worry about
    Sure, me too. There's precisely no way I'd get a device that relies on a 12 button keypad for text entry. That's not the point I was trying to discuss in starting this thread though. There're plenty of people who are happy enough with this form of text entry to use it every day (I'd guess >95% of phones have no QWERTY and no touchscreen). People who want a QWERTY keyboard aren't normal
    05-01-2007 02:50 AM
  13. marcol's Avatar
    For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006:
    A quick correction to 'For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006'. That should be 'smart mobile device (PDA plus smartphone) market'. Windows mobile actually has a much smaller fraction of the market if just smartphones are counted, for instance 4.6% in Q4 2006:

    Symbian 14.7m 72.5%
    Linux 3.4m 16.9%
    Microsoft 0.9m 4.6%
    RIM 0.8m 3.8%
    PalmSource 0.4m 2.0%

    Total 20.2m 100.0%

    http://www.symbian.com/about/fastfac...cts.html#_ftn1
    05-01-2007 06:27 AM
  14. captaindan's Avatar
    I think the Iphone tied it's own hands when they went with just one carrier.
    05-01-2007 06:45 AM
  15. surur's Avatar
    A quick correction to 'For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006'. That should be 'smart mobile device (PDA plus smartphone) market'. Windows mobile actually has a much smaller fraction of the market if just smartphones are counted, for instance 4.6% in Q4 2006:

    Symbian 14.7m 72.5%
    Linux 3.4m 16.9%
    Microsoft 0.9m 4.6%
    RIM 0.8m 3.8%
    PalmSource 0.4m 2.0%

    Total 20.2m 100.0%

    http://www.symbian.com/about/fastfac...cts.html#_ftn1
    Sorry, but that number is pretty suspect. That is basically saying world wide, for 3 months including Christmas last year, only 900 000 WM smartphones were sold. Does that number sound believable? WM are doing 10-12 million devices per year. By that numbers around 2 million PDA's were sold. Does that sound believable also, considering what we know of the state of the PDA vs Smartphone industry?

    Much more likely is that Symbian is spinning the numbers, and relying on the Gartner-like definition of Smartphone (phone-centric, no touch screen).

    In fact, here is a link to the definition Canalys uses.

    Smart phone: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for voice, offers full, configurable two-way data synchronisation, and OS-based applications can be added without restriction. Example: Sony Ericsson P900.

    Handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, no integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: palmOne Tungsten T3.

    Wireless handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: O2 xda II.
    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2004/r2004071.htm

    Marcol, I expected better insight into the numbers from you.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 06:59 AM
  16. surur's Avatar
    Using those canalys numbers, which put PalmOS Treo's shipped at 400 000, add in palm's sellthrough numbers of 524 000 for the same period, and we can see about 125 000 WM Treo's were sold in Q4 2006, about 25% of Palm's sales.

    Also, using those same numbers which Symbian so kindly provided, we can see the Wm Smartphone segment has shown high YoY growth (125%), much higher than the mature Symbian segment in fact, and with breakout devices like the Samsung Blackjack and the T-Mobile Dash doing pretty well we can expect a significant boost in those numbers for Q1 2007.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 07:22 AM
  17. marcol's Avatar
    Fair comment. Canalys are splitting what most of us would call 'smartphones' into 'smartphones' and 'wireless handhelds' and:

    Smart mobile devices = smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs

    I suspect (but don't know for sure) that you're right and Symbian just took the smartphone part of the equation and hence Microsoft ended up with just 4.6%. So (probably) for Q4 2006 Microsoft had:

    14% of smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs

    and

    4.6% of smartphones (excl. what canalys define as 'wireless handhelds')

    without paying for the report it's impossible to say exactly how the WM devices split between 'smartphones', 'wireless handhelds' and PDAs but I do suspect that Microsoft's OS is on a comparatively large proportion of PDAs (more than Symbian is) so Microsoft's share of the smartphone (as you and I would define the term) market is less than 14% but more than 4.7%.
    05-01-2007 07:41 AM
  18. marcol's Avatar
    Also, using those same numbers which Symbian so kindly provided, we can see the Wm Smartphone segment has shown high YoY growth (125%), much higher than the mature Symbian segment in fact, and with breakout devices like the Samsung Blackjack and the T-Mobile Dash doing pretty well we can expect a significant boost in those numbers for Q1 2007.
    Remember though that we just agreed that's probably only part of the story. Over the last couple years WM has seen a big fall in the % it has of its whole market. I wonder if that can all be ascribed to a collapse in PDAs or if what canalys calls 'wireless handhelds' (it's possible they mean anything with WM PPC as opposed to WM Smartphone) also exhibit declining share?
    05-01-2007 07:55 AM
  19. oalvarez's Avatar
    This describes the IPhone too. I thought you were a fan?

    Surur
    i'm a fan because it's not a brick and outdated like the treo. having said that, i can't comment on how it's going to work for me especially given the fact that i've never used a keyboard of its type.

    Surur, i basically have grown to hate big and bulky treos and anything with a slide out keyboard, but i think you knew that. i am a fan of slim and thin.

    see ya
    05-01-2007 08:05 AM
  20. surur's Avatar
    Remember though that we just agreed that's probably only part of the story. Over the last couple years WM has seen a big fall in the % it has of its whole market. I wonder if that can all be ascribed to a collapse in PDAs or if what canalys calls 'wireless handhelds' (it's possible they mean anything with WM PPC as opposed to WM Smartphone) also exhibit declining share?
    A large part of the declining share is Nokia pushing Symbian downmarket, thereby increasing the market more rapidly than the normally higher end Smartphone market would naturally grow.

    The WM market is currently undergoing the same transition, but by using two different OS's. WM Standard phones have always been a smaller segment of the WM market, but as the devices filter into the general consumer market these phone-like devices have grown at a much faster rate than the WM market itself. WM by itself does about 40% YoY, while the smartphone segment is growing much faster. If you think of hit WM devices these days with mass market appeal, we are much more likely to think of the Q, Dash and Blackjack than for example the HTC TyTn or M700. This is because these devices are a lot smaller, cheaper and more pocketable.

    What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices, and will therefore not have the huge success you anticipate.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 08:15 AM
  21. surur's Avatar
    Surur, i basically have grown to hate big and bulky treos and anything with a slide out keyboard, but i think you knew that. i am a fan of slim and thin.

    see ya
    I'm cool with that. That's where the industry is going in any case. Most of us here however are prepared to compromise on size to get added (possibly unnecessary) functionality, but eventually we will be able to have our cake and eat it too. We however are only a small segment of the market.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 08:18 AM
  22. marcol's Avatar
    A large part of the declining share is Nokia pushing Symbian downmarket, thereby increasing the market more rapidly than the normally higher end Smartphone market would naturally grow.
    Of course, but, as you pointed out, against this background the simpler WM devices (what canalys calls 'smartphones') are showing growth in their marketshare. I was simply wondering if this is also true of the more complex, higher-end devices (what Canalys calls 'wireless handhelds') or if they're failing to grow their marketshare. Interesting I think if there really is a shift to the simpler WM phones.

    What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices,
    You could convince me of that but you'll have to do better than just saying it's so. It seems to me the N95 is unlike the TyTN but like the mass market Nokia smartphones in several ways:

    Made by Nokia
    Has Symbian/S60
    No QWERTY
    No touchscreen
    No stylus is required
    Significantly smaller than the TyTN
    Significantly lighter than TyTN
    Emphasis on consumer features like photos, video and music
    Rapidly adopted by many carriers
    Free on a contract early in its life-cycle
    Heavily advertised

    You may recall that I owned a TyTN variant briefly. I was happy enough with most aspects of the OS (some grumbles about the UI, but no deal breakers), but the device was poorly made. The slider was poor, the d-pad was poor, the keyboard was poor, and the Wifi was poor. I truly hope there are never any more phones that are like it in those respects.

    and will therefore not have the huge success you anticipate.
    We'll see
    05-01-2007 08:51 AM
  23. surur's Avatar
    To get a Nokia N95 on Vodafone for free you need to pay 825 in total monthly charges over 18 months. That does not even include a data plan. To get it free on t-mobile you have to pay 900 over 18 months, also without a data plan.

    Unless the people who buy it cant multiply, this moves it out of the mass market.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 09:10 AM
  24. marcol's Avatar
    To get a Nokia N95 on Vodafone for free you need to pay 825 in total monthly charges over 18 months. That does not even include a data plan. To get it free on t-mobile you have to pay 900 over 18 months, also without a data plan.

    Unless the people who buy it cant multiply, this moves it out of the mass market.
    Do you really think it will stay like that for long? You'll note that the period I made sales predictions for was Q4 2007. If precedent is anything to go by, it'll be a whole lot cheaper by then.

    Anyway, I'm not suggesting that the N95 or the iPhone will suddenly become the phones of choice for everybody, that they'll saturate the whole market including the cheapest contracts and pay-as-you-go. But the whole market (globally) is a billion phones a year and smartphones are currently about 8% of this (depending on whose numbers you read). I'm arguing that there's plenty of room at the top for some expansion and that the N95 and the iPhone are well placed to exploit that. In the end of course that's just a guess based on the buzz that both have created (see my first post in this thread) and my feelings about the two devices (I think Nokia and Apple got some design decisions right and they'll have broader appeal than previous smartphones).
    05-01-2007 09:59 AM
  25. surur's Avatar
    In the end of course that's just a guess based on the buzz that both have created (see my first post in this thread) and my feelings about the two devices (I think Nokia and Apple got some design decisions right and they'll have broader appeal than previous smartphones).
    We'll probably know a lot more about the Iphone than the N95, as Nokia AFAIK does not release individual device sales numbers. I personally do not like the design of the N95, and cant see how the dual slider makes it any more consumer friendly than not. The Iphone is of course very tasty, but has other practicality issues. For the Iphone at least these would probably not influence initial sales however. After the first few 100 get dropped however I think we will hear a lot more about it.

    Surur
    05-01-2007 10:15 AM
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