May want to wait for 3G iP

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Here's a dot you were probably wishing wouldn't show up.

MarketingWeek reports that:

Despite reports that Vodafone would be the iPhone carrier, sources are saying T-Mobile is favored to secure the deal. Both carriers have been active in the music area, but apparently Vodafone's Live! portal would not be a good match with Apple's iTunes software.​

As usual Archie you are not making sense. Sad really. How is the fact that the IPhone is going to one of the smaller carriers a good thing for the IPhone and Apple?

subscribers.gif

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mobile_network_operators

I see you left out an important part of the quote.

He also points out that T-Mobile has little or no presence in Italy, Spain or France.
http://www.marketingweek.co.uk/item/56215/258/262/3

If Vodafone did not agree to conform to Apple's ridiculous demands like AT&T did I guess it means the more powerful carriers dont think the IPhone is great enough to bend over and take it. Didn't Verizon (who have a relation with Vodafone) similarly refuse to play ball with Apple?

Anyway, Archie, I still wait for you to explain your (flawed) reasoning.

I must really bug you. :p
Actually Archie, I find your posts extremely amusing. Keep it up!

Surur
 

archie

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2003
532
0
0
Visit site
I left it out because it makes NO difference to my point, but I didn't really expect anything else from you except this ridiculous rebutal.

By the way, it's quite ironic you turned your attention to Italy, Spain and France because this is where I will have my full attention drawn to (plus Germany) for the next 3 weeks. So you can spin and spew and downplay the iPhone all you want.
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
I left it out because it makes NO difference to my point, but I didn't really expect anything else from you except this ridiculous rebutal.

Archie, as usual, I dont even know what you point is. You could really do with some lessons in writing persuasively.

Archie said:
By the way, it's quite ironic you turned your attention to Italy, Spain and France because this is where I will have my full attention drawn to (plus Germany) for the next 3 weeks. So you can spin and spew and downplay the iPhone all you want.

And maybe they can teach you what irony actually means too. Anyway, thanks again for hiding information from us for our own good.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
As a potential buyer of the iPhone in the UK I think T-Mobile would be a great choice, mostly because of their super-cheap data pricing (although Orange now have great packages too and even Vodafone have moved in the right direction of late). I've also been pretty impressed with the rate they've managed to play catch-up in rolling out their 3G network and with the general network reliability (better than Vodafone in my experience) and customer service doesn't seem to shabby either (they were very nice about about my wanting to swap the first phone I chose for a different model, even to the extent of sending me the new one before I'd sent the old one back).

As a (completely non-expert) observer of the market though, T-Mobile seems like a curious choice, at least to the extent that the rumours that Apple wanted a single carrier for Europe are true. T-Mobile are big in Germany (#1) and the UK (#2) and number of smaller countries but (according to Wikipedia) have nothing in France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and many others:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-mobile

Vodafone are the closest to having a pan-European presence:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vodafone#Vodafone_in_Europe

It's worth noting though that although (however you look at it) Vodafone are more widespread than T-Mobile, a lot of that presence isn't a consequence actually owning networks (see column 3 in the Vodafone Wikipedia page). In terms of owning networks, there simply isn't a pan-European carrier.

There are several questions I don't know the answer to that are relevant:

1) Is Apple really after a single carrier in Europe?

2) What's the relationship between Vodafone and the many carriers listed on Wikipedia in which it has no stake. Would they/could they be part of any deal between Apple and Vodafone?

3) If Apple goes with T-Mobile, what happens in the European countries with no T-Mobile? Deals with other carriers? Sold unlocked? Not sold at all?
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
As a (completely non-expert) observer of the market though, T-Mobile seems like a curious choice, at least to the extent that the rumours that Apple wanted a single carrier for Europe are true. T-Mobile are big in Germany (#1) and the UK (#2) and number of smaller countries but (according to Wikipedia) have nothing in France, Italy, Spain, Greece, Turkey, Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland and many others:?

In fact, as you pointed out to me earlier, Italy is one of the biggest smartphone consumer in Europe. Missing out on that market is just stupid.

By the time the Iphone comes to market here (end of this year?) its going to look like old hat. I can walk into any phone shop today and walk out with the very similar looking LG Prada, and Apple will look like just another copycat, and there is already talk of an LG Prada II with Digital TV built-in.

The fact is that the music phone market has been growing strongly even before the Iphone (just look at the successful SE Walkman phone series) and the other phone companies will not just cede that market without a fight. In Europe they will have a further 3-6 months head start, and are releasing devices with address the feature set of the Iphone right now.

Judging the market from the American perspective (with its paucity of advanced phones) will give a very wrong impression of the potential market share of this device.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
In fact, as you pointed out to me earlier, Italy is one of the biggest smartphone consumer in Europe. Missing out on that market is just stupid.
I'd agree that missing out on that market, and many other European markets, *would be* stupid, or at least rather strange. You write as if that's a done deal though, a conclusion which, AFAIK, has very little to support it. We don't know for sure that it will be T-Mobile and we don't know that it will be a single European carrier, and even if both of those turn out to be true, we don't know that Apple wouldn't offer the phone unlocked, direct to the consumer in some markets.
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
I'd agree that missing out on that market, and many other European markets, *would be* stupid, or at least rather strange. You write as if that's a done deal though, a conclusion which, AFAIK, has very little to support it. We don't know for sure that it will be T-Mobile and we don't know that it will be a single European carrier, and even if both of those turn out to be true, we don't know that Apple wouldn't offer the phone unlocked, direct to the consumer in some markets.

Wasn't me who produced the article, for whatever nebulous reason. Hopefully missing out on that market is so stupid even Apple wont do it, but we cant be sure...

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Judging the market from the American perspective (with its paucity of advanced phones) will give a very wrong impression of the potential market share of this device.
The European and American markets are pretty different of course (just look at how badly Nokia does, comparatively, in the US), but a recent survey of European mobile phone users from Canalys has some pretty interesting stuff:

iPod owners receptive to Apple as mobile phone provider

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they would be to choose different vendor brands for their next personal mobile phone. Unsurprisingly, Nokia came out as the clear leader, with almost half the respondents giving the vendor the highest rating and 84% saying they were more likely than not to consider it. Nokia was some way ahead of Sony Ericsson, which was followed closely by Samsung and then Motorola. Consumers’ ratings of Apple gave it a mid-table position, behind LG, but marginally ahead of well-known smart mobile device vendors like RIM, HP and Palm. Given that the iPhone has not even shipped yet this gives an indication of how well its brand could play in the consumer mobile phone space, but it will still need to overcome the technical and channel-related challenges entry into this market brings.

“Apple’s rating improves dramatically when you talk to existing iPod owners,” said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys. “Almost half the respondents who owned an iPod rated Apple as more likely than not be considered for their next phone, compared to just 20% for those who didn’t have an iPod, and they were five times as likely to give Apple the highest rating. There is a lot of loyalty there that Apple can tap into.”

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007053.htm

Quite impressive when you consider not only has the iPhone not shipped (anywhere) yet, in Europe, AFAIK, it hasn't even been advertised.
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
The European and American markets are pretty different of course (just look at how badly Nokia does, comparatively, in the US), but a recent survey of European mobile phone users from Canalys has some pretty interesting stuff:

iPod owners receptive to Apple as mobile phone provider

Respondents were asked to rate how likely they would be to choose different vendor brands for their next personal mobile phone. Unsurprisingly, Nokia came out as the clear leader, with almost half the respondents giving the vendor the highest rating and 84% saying they were more likely than not to consider it. Nokia was some way ahead of Sony Ericsson, which was followed closely by Samsung and then Motorola. Consumers? ratings of Apple gave it a mid-table position, behind LG, but marginally ahead of well-known smart mobile device vendors like RIM, HP and Palm. Given that the iPhone has not even shipped yet this gives an indication of how well its brand could play in the consumer mobile phone space, but it will still need to overcome the technical and channel-related challenges entry into this market brings.

?Apple?s rating improves dramatically when you talk to existing iPod owners,? said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys. ?Almost half the respondents who owned an iPod rated Apple as more likely than not be considered for their next phone, compared to just 20% for those who didn?t have an iPod, and they were five times as likely to give Apple the highest rating. There is a lot of loyalty there that Apple can tap into.?

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007053.htm

Quite impressive when you consider not only has the iPhone not shipped (anywhere) yet, in Europe, AFAIK, it hasn't even been advertised.

Of course, with the wild media coverage of all things Apple, do they really need any advertising?

The (apparent) wide disparity between those who have Ipods vs the whole population must say something of the penetration of Ipod's in Europe, ie. not that high.

Ive noticed an interesting trend recently. Apple is thought to be quite innovative in adding new technology to their devices, but recently they have been far from first with new technologies, which must be taking the wind out of Job's sails a bit when he does his keynote. They were widely expected to be first with LED back lights, and were not, they were widely expected to be first with Solid state Disks, and were not, they have not yet shown a laptop with 3G data connection, the Apple faithful are still fantasizing about a tablet PC, of course the Iphone does not have 3G itself, some-one else released the 16GB flash-based music player etc.

Now I know you might say Apple isn't first, they just do it the best, but that has not been how they have been perceived recently. An example is Archie's Zirconium Iphone shell, the apparent 1.2 Ghz ARM processor in the Iphone, and Archie's firm expectation that the Iphone will have a software radio. In actual fact they are really slipping up on that now on that front.

Your data above basically says Apple is in the same niche market as the smartphone OEM's, which is not the greatest place to be in the giant European cellphone market.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Your data above basically says Apple is in the same niche market as the smartphone OEM's, which is not the greatest place to be in the giant European cellphone market.
Canalys's data not mine.

I know it's your wont to post negative things about Apple, but do really not think that being ahead of established players like RIM, HP and Palm when they haven't sold a single phone yet is pretty remarkable? Apple have close to 50% of European iPod users and 20% of those who don't have an iPod saying they're likely to consider Apple for their next phone. We can guess at the reasons for this, the fact iPod users are more likely than non-users hints at a couple, but that's not the story here. The story is the numbers.
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Having a consumer targeted device scored better by consumers than business phones like from HP. RIMM and Palm is hardly remarkable and I am surprised you find it so.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Having a consumer targeted device scored better by consumers than business phones like from HP. RIMM and Palm is hardly remarkable and I am surprised you find it so.
You're missing the point, which is that the iPhone is scoring so highly prior to its release. How do you think the first phones from HP, RIMM and Palm would have scored in Europe at the same point in their respective life cycles?
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
And you are missing the point that comparing favourably to HP in Europe is hardly an achievement.

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
And you are missing the point that comparing favourably to HP in Europe is hardly an achievement.
Being only a bit ahead of HP certainly wouldn't be great if Apple had been making phones for several years, but that's clearly not case. I wonder how the numbers will look in a year's time?
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Of course what really matters is how this translates into sales. Here are the most relevant numbers I could find ('smart mobile devices' for whole EMEA, Q3 2006):

Nokia 5.5 million, 75.2%
HTC 0.30 million, 4.1%
RIM 0.25 million, 3.5%
Sony Ericsson 0.22 million, 3.0%
HP 0.19 million, 2.5%

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006102.htm

Care to have a stab at where Apple will be in that list in a years' time?
 

Certs

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2005
239
0
0
www.myspace.com
Forget the hype for now, there are people who are going to buy this thing @ launch FOR SURE. The bottom line is user opinion, if this thing gets bad reviews/ bugs found right away, Apple will have a problem. Everyone is interested in it, which IS EXPECTED since most of us own Ipods AND phones, who wouldn't be interested in a 2-for1 device? But those numbers are misleading, and they should have also asked something like this:

"Are you going to buy the iPhone right away, or wait a few days for user opinions?" And...

"If user reviews are highly unfavorable, will you still buy the phone or will you do more research?"

Everyone is intrigued by this phone. But not all are going to go run and buy one without finding out a little more about it first.
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Of course what really matters is how this translates into sales. Here are the most relevant numbers I could find ('smart mobile devices' for whole EMEA, Q3 2006):

Nokia 5.5 million, 75.2%
HTC 0.30 million, 4.1%
RIM 0.25 million, 3.5%
Sony Ericsson 0.22 million, 3.0%
HP 0.19 million, 2.5%

http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006102.htm

Care to have a stab at where Apple will be in that list in a years' time?

I see your problem here. You think the IPhone is a smartphone, when its actually only a feature phone. Selling only 250 000 is not going to help Apple reach their 10 million target very well. At least 160 million mobile phones were sold in Europe in 2006, by people like "Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola and LG." If they are just ahead of the people (HP, RIM, Palm) who each sold at best 0.5% of that market, it really does not say much.

Also you seem impressed by people saying they will buy it. Talk is cheap, but if the unsubsidized price is ?300 (and Apple refuses a subsidy as they did with Cingular) I doubt this will translate as readily to real sales.

Surur
 

Certs

Well-known member
Mar 13, 2005
239
0
0
www.myspace.com
You have to consider the iPhone a smart phone. It has a multitasking OS< full web capability, HTML email, office document viewers, etc. etc.
 

Trending Posts

Members online

No members online now.

Forum statistics

Threads
260,011
Messages
1,765,310
Members
441,221
Latest member
CØR