May want to wait for 3G iP

[surur]

You have to consider the iPhone a smart phone. It has a multitasking OS< full web capability, HTML email, office document viewers, etc. etc.

As you well know, it misses the one defining feature, that being an open OS to which you can add your own third party apps. I have also not heard of any office viewers.

Also, as yourself this. Do you expect the IPhone to sell to the smartphone market, or the phone poseur market?

Surur

 

[marcol]

I see your problem here. You think the IPhone is a smartphone, when its actually only a feature phone.

Actually I think it's debatable, but I also think the label isn't very important. I posted the 'smart mobile device' data from Canalys essentially because it had sales of HP and RIM devices (we were discussing the two companies).

Selling only 250 000 is not going to help Apple reach their 10 million target very well. At least 160 million mobile phones were sold in Europe in 2006, by people like "Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola and LG." If they are just ahead of the people (HP, RIM, Palm) who each sold at best 0.5% of that market, it really does not say much.

250 000 over four quarters gets them 10% of the way there, but, again, you're ignoring the fact that the interest Canalys reports is for an unreleased product, early in it's lifecycle.

Also you seem impressed by people saying they will buy it. Talk is cheap, but if the unsubsidized price is ?300 (and Apple refuses a subsidy as they did with Cingular) I doubt this will translate as readily to real sales.

I do think the level of interest the product has generated is pretty remarkable. At this point I think things are going about as well as Apple could have reasonably expected, i.e. lots of people seem interested in the iPhone. Cost is of course an issue, but remember that the prices of the two devices in the US have been known since the announcement and are presumably known by all those people who say they will buy it. I do sort of agree with the 'talk is cheap' comment. Not in the sense that I think a large proportion of those surveyed were lying when they said they wanted it, but it's of course possible that many will change their minds. I suspect that Littlepat's spot on when he says early experiences and reports will be very important in determining how does in the market.

 

[marcol]

Forget the hype for now, there are people who are going to buy this thing @ launch FOR SURE. The bottom line is user opinion, if this thing gets bad reviews/ bugs found right away, Apple will have a problem. Everyone is interested in it, which IS EXPECTED since most of us own Ipods AND phones, who wouldn't be interested in a 2-for1 device?

I agree. When I first saw the device my first thought was that the whole one button thing would be off-putting and might relegate it to a small niche, but as best we can tell from the various surveys we've seen that doesn't seem a major factor.

Interesting to try to think of bad user experiences that could kill the iPhone. Here are just a few that come to mind:

1) Most people find they really can't get by without physical number keys and/or the touch-based UI (incl. the QWERTY) turns out to be tricky.
2) In reality it's not half as pretty as it looks in the pictures.
3) When they actually hold it people think it's too big.
4) It's buggy, unstable, perhaps dropping calls or having other functions that just don't work as expected or it crashes.
5) It breaks.
6) It has poor voice quality.
7) It has bad battery life.
8) It has poor music quality.
9) The screen scratches easily.
10) It's slippery.

Etc, etc. Mostly stuff that's true of any device like this. At this point (as I was saying above) things seem to be going pretty well for Apple. They've designed a device that (on paper at least) people seem to like and say they want to buy. It's perhaps a little trite to say all they need to do now is deliver, but certainly they do need to do that, and that's no small task. Apple of course have lots of expertise in designing electronic devices and OSs that go on them, but on the other hand this is a first gen device and their first phone. I suspect they will get it more-or-less right, but given the level of hype and anticipation, the capacity for (perceived) failure really is quite huge.

 

[Certs]

As you well know, it misses the one defining feature, that being an open OS to which you can add your own third party apps. I have also not heard of any office viewers.

Also, as yourself this. Do you expect the IPhone to sell to the smartphone market, or the phone poseur market?

Surur

I would GUESS a little of both. MANY Treo owners are not business customers.

Widgets, 3rd party apps, they all remain to be seen. Supposedly there's a hold 'em "widget" that will be on the iphone? Sounds like a 3rd party app to me...

I will re-check the office viewers, but I thought I read that it had a viewer but you could not edit. I'll check that..

 

[surur]

I would GUESS a little of both. MANY Treo owners are not business customers.

Widgets, 3rd party apps, they all remain to be seen. Supposedly there's a hold 'em "widget" that will be on the iphone? Sounds like a 3rd party app to me...

Apple's sandbox apps arnt really what a smartphone is about, is it? I note that less than a month before launch no software SDK or design guidelines have been released to the public, and Steve is still "wrestling" with the idea of third party apps.

Surur

 

[mikec#IM]

bust?

Unless the iPhone booms out of the gate, it will be considered a bust, given all the hype.

Let's see what wins out:

In the light corner, the "coolness" of Apple, fanboys, and earlier adopters.

In the dark corner:

- Non-user replaceable battery
- Stinkular service
- $500 pricetag
- no 3rd party apps
- EDGE - no 3G
- no expansion port

I guess we will see in a month...

 

[marcol]

mikec, on the the basis of your list there's nothing good about the device itself at all so the dark has it all the way

 

[treobk214]

This buildup is similar to what the palm fanboys were hyping up the treo 600 to be before it arrived, remember?

Look, there are going to be palm fanboys, apple fanboys, yankee fanboys and boston fanboys. Each is going to say the other is a total and utter disaster, an absolute failure just waiting to happen. All that is just preposterous nonsense.

The iphone is going to do very, very well, despite all these naysaying crystal ballers here. There will ALWAYS be room for improvement, as each newtreo CLEARLY shows us EVERY SINGLE YEAR, but on the whole the iphone will be a big success, despite anything others here try to say to the contrary.

So sit back, relax, and watch as the iphone takes the mobile phone industry by storm....

Let the countdown begin....

 

[Certs]

The iphone is going to do very, very well, despite all these naysaying crystal ballers here...

...but on the whole the iphone will be a big success, despite anything others here try to say to the contrary...

Sound like a crystal baller yourself, no?

The question is just that, will it be a big success, despite the HUGE price tag even for new contracts. LOWEST price is like 500 bucks for the 8 GB, no? Or 600? I don't even remember.

There is no question that the PS3 is the best gaming system out there right now, as far as performance. But lack of games and huge price tag have made PS3 sales embarassing. Compare the two, PS3 vs iPhone:

Huge price vs huge price
no games vs lack of 3rd party apps

It is very possible that after the initial hype the iphone will not be a success. I'm not saying it will happen, but it very well could....

 

[treobk214]

Sound like a crystal baller yourself, no?

The question is just that, will it be a big success, despite the HUGE price tag even for new contracts. LOWEST price is like 500 bucks for the 8 GB, no? Or 600? I don't even remember.

There is no question that the PS3 is the best gaming system out there right now, as far as performance. But lack of games and huge price tag have made PS3 sales embarassing. Compare the two, PS3 vs iPhone:

Huge price vs huge price
no games vs lack of 3rd party apps

It is very possible that after the initial hype the iphone will not be a success. I'm not saying it will happen, but it very well could....

How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

I rest my case

 

[Malatesta]

How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

I rest my case

You rest your case? That's your argument?

As technology becomes more mainstream, demand goes up...manufacturing costs go down. Then it becomes widely adopted and everyone is happy.

If I buy an LCD HDTV today I mostly certainly paid less for it now than I did 3 years ago (or even 6 months ago).

Smart-devices are the same, the trend is for those prices to drop not rise. The new Palm 755p is only $279.

The Motorola Q and Samsung Blackjack are both $79.99!

iPhone = $599.

That's a huge difference and you even loose broadband. Yikes. Sure the iPhone has some newer technology in it...but it's still just a fancy phone that plays music, that's it. Is it worth the $500 increase? We'll have to see.

Your argument is extremely poor.

 

[Certs]

How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

I rest my case

There's no case to rest, I stated that the price may drive people away from the iphone because competition is cheaper, as is the case w/the PS3. I proposed a THEORY, not a PREDICTION.

Besides, the smartphone market was very young back then, and I believe if you wanted the best flip phones (v60, etc) they would run you 2-300 bucks, 4-5 without contract. Man that was a long time ago.

 

[surur]

I dont think anyone, even me, would dare predict the IPhone wont sell well, but I take exception to it being called a very good smartphone.

Surur

 

[treobk214]

How much do the ipods which play video go for?

I'd expect many of the people who buy the iphone will be those upgrading from their ipods.

That will probably be the base apple draws from.

 

[treobk214]

There will also be some treo users making the switchover to the iphone.

The business iphone may very well be the next incarnation or generation following this one. I'd be fairly certain you'll see ev-do or wimax onboard those devices in that series. We will see.

The business smart iphone. Whether or not apple encroaches on that end of the market depends on how their devices pass on battery life, ease of data input, stability, PIM apps, etc.

Apple will capture the attention of consumers: ipod users as well as some business users with the first iphone. Building upon that success, apple will gradually expand their appeal to other areas of the market.

 

[Kupe#WP]

How much do the ipods which play video go for?

~$350 for the 80gb model

I'd expect many of the people who buy the iphone will be those upgrading from their ipods.

Last time I checked, 80gb was approximately 10 times more storage than 8 gb. Why am I paying nearly double for the smaller amount of memory? The 8GB Nano is $249. Is the addition of a touch screen and wireless phone worth $350 (ironically the price of an iPod 80gb)? Will I like this device because it has no 3G? Lack of keyboard (and there for a 2-handed machine)? Cingular's fine service? No wait! - widgets!

That will probably be the base apple draws from.

Malleable, math-challenged, trend-following, shiny-device lovers?

 

[marcol]

~$350 for the 80gb model
The 8GB Nano is $249. Is the addition of a touch screen and wireless phone worth $350?

iPhone also adds video, messaging, email, web browsing, camera, Google maps, much better PIM apps (not read-only like on the Nano), notes, calculator, etc ... plus those widgets you love, and whatever else Apple throws into the package (their own apps or those made in collaboration with third parties). It seems to me they're aiming at quality not quantity, but even in a simplistic count-the-features analysis it's much more than a Nano plus a phone.

 

[surur]

iPhone also adds video, messaging, email, web browsing, camera, Google maps, much better PIM apps (not read-only like on the Nano), notes, calculator, etc ... plus those widgets you love, and whatever else Apple throws into the package (their own apps or those made in collaboration with third parties). It seems to me they're aiming at quality not quantity, but even in a simplistic count-the-features analysis it's much more than a Nano plus a phone.

Doesn't it depend which phone you pair with that nano?

I mean, I cant take a 2 year old device like an HTC Prophet free with a contract, have "video, messaging, email, web browsing, camera, Google maps, much better PIM apps (not read-only like on the Nano), notes, calculator" and add a nano at the cost of the nano.

Simplistic, but true.

Surur

 

[marcol]

I just meant that the iPhone gives you much more than just a Nano plus basic phone functionality. Sorry if I didn't express that too well.

I mean, I cant take a 2 year old device like an HTC Prophet free with a contract, have "video, messaging, email, web browsing, camera, Google maps, much better PIM apps (not read-only like on the Nano), notes, calculator" and add a nano at the cost of the nano.

Please don't make me relive my last, very poor experience with HTC hardware! If Apple can't do better than that they're truly screwed.

 

[surur]

I just meant that the iPhone gives you much more than just a Nano plus basic phone functionality.

Basic phones are becoming increasingly rare. Every Java phone can run google maps and gmail these days.

Surur