1. surur's Avatar
    The European and American markets are pretty different of course (just look at how badly Nokia does, comparatively, in the US), but a recent survey of European mobile phone users from Canalys has some pretty interesting stuff:

    iPod owners receptive to Apple as mobile phone provider

    Respondents were asked to rate how likely they would be to choose different vendor brands for their next personal mobile phone. Unsurprisingly, Nokia came out as the clear leader, with almost half the respondents giving the vendor the highest rating and 84% saying they were more likely than not to consider it. Nokia was some way ahead of Sony Ericsson, which was followed closely by Samsung and then Motorola. Consumers ratings of Apple gave it a mid-table position, behind LG, but marginally ahead of well-known smart mobile device vendors like RIM, HP and Palm. Given that the iPhone has not even shipped yet this gives an indication of how well its brand could play in the consumer mobile phone space, but it will still need to overcome the technical and channel-related challenges entry into this market brings.

    Apples rating improves dramatically when you talk to existing iPod owners, said Pete Cunningham, senior analyst at Canalys. Almost half the respondents who owned an iPod rated Apple as more likely than not be considered for their next phone, compared to just 20% for those who didnt have an iPod, and they were five times as likely to give Apple the highest rating. There is a lot of loyalty there that Apple can tap into.

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007053.htm

    Quite impressive when you consider not only has the iPhone not shipped (anywhere) yet, in Europe, AFAIK, it hasn't even been advertised.
    Of course, with the wild media coverage of all things Apple, do they really need any advertising?

    The (apparent) wide disparity between those who have Ipods vs the whole population must say something of the penetration of Ipod's in Europe, ie. not that high.

    Ive noticed an interesting trend recently. Apple is thought to be quite innovative in adding new technology to their devices, but recently they have been far from first with new technologies, which must be taking the wind out of Job's sails a bit when he does his keynote. They were widely expected to be first with LED back lights, and were not, they were widely expected to be first with Solid state Disks, and were not, they have not yet shown a laptop with 3G data connection, the Apple faithful are still fantasizing about a tablet PC, of course the Iphone does not have 3G itself, some-one else released the 16GB flash-based music player etc.

    Now I know you might say Apple isn't first, they just do it the best, but that has not been how they have been perceived recently. An example is Archie's Zirconium Iphone shell, the apparent 1.2 Ghz ARM processor in the Iphone, and Archie's firm expectation that the Iphone will have a software radio. In actual fact they are really slipping up on that now on that front.

    Your data above basically says Apple is in the same niche market as the smartphone OEM's, which is not the greatest place to be in the giant European cellphone market.

    Surur
    05-16-2007 09:47 AM
  2. marcol's Avatar
    Your data above basically says Apple is in the same niche market as the smartphone OEM's, which is not the greatest place to be in the giant European cellphone market.
    Canalys's data not mine.

    I know it's your wont to post negative things about Apple, but do really not think that being ahead of established players like RIM, HP and Palm when they haven't sold a single phone yet is pretty remarkable? Apple have close to 50% of European iPod users and 20% of those who don't have an iPod saying they're likely to consider Apple for their next phone. We can guess at the reasons for this, the fact iPod users are more likely than non-users hints at a couple, but that's not the story here. The story is the numbers.
    05-16-2007 11:51 AM
  3. surur's Avatar
    Having a consumer targeted device scored better by consumers than business phones like from HP. RIMM and Palm is hardly remarkable and I am surprised you find it so.

    Surur
    05-16-2007 12:26 PM
  4. marcol's Avatar
    Having a consumer targeted device scored better by consumers than business phones like from HP. RIMM and Palm is hardly remarkable and I am surprised you find it so.
    You're missing the point, which is that the iPhone is scoring so highly prior to its release. How do you think the first phones from HP, RIMM and Palm would have scored in Europe at the same point in their respective life cycles?
    05-16-2007 01:58 PM
  5. surur's Avatar
    And you are missing the point that comparing favourably to HP in Europe is hardly an achievement.

    Surur
    05-16-2007 02:08 PM
  6. marcol's Avatar
    And you are missing the point that comparing favourably to HP in Europe is hardly an achievement.
    Being only a bit ahead of HP certainly wouldn't be great if Apple had been making phones for several years, but that's clearly not case. I wonder how the numbers will look in a year's time?
    05-16-2007 02:18 PM
  7. marcol's Avatar
    Of course what really matters is how this translates into sales. Here are the most relevant numbers I could find ('smart mobile devices' for whole EMEA, Q3 2006):

    Nokia 5.5 million, 75.2%
    HTC 0.30 million, 4.1%
    RIM 0.25 million, 3.5%
    Sony Ericsson 0.22 million, 3.0%
    HP 0.19 million, 2.5%

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006102.htm

    Care to have a stab at where Apple will be in that list in a years' time?
    05-16-2007 02:47 PM
  8. Certs's Avatar
    Forget the hype for now, there are people who are going to buy this thing @ launch FOR SURE. The bottom line is user opinion, if this thing gets bad reviews/ bugs found right away, Apple will have a problem. Everyone is interested in it, which IS EXPECTED since most of us own Ipods AND phones, who wouldn't be interested in a 2-for1 device? But those numbers are misleading, and they should have also asked something like this:

    "Are you going to buy the iPhone right away, or wait a few days for user opinions?" And...

    "If user reviews are highly unfavorable, will you still buy the phone or will you do more research?"

    Everyone is intrigued by this phone. But not all are going to go run and buy one without finding out a little more about it first.
    05-16-2007 03:09 PM
  9. surur's Avatar
    Of course what really matters is how this translates into sales. Here are the most relevant numbers I could find ('smart mobile devices' for whole EMEA, Q3 2006):

    Nokia 5.5 million, 75.2%
    HTC 0.30 million, 4.1%
    RIM 0.25 million, 3.5%
    Sony Ericsson 0.22 million, 3.0%
    HP 0.19 million, 2.5%

    http://www.canalys.com/pr/2006/r2006102.htm

    Care to have a stab at where Apple will be in that list in a years' time?
    I see your problem here. You think the IPhone is a smartphone, when its actually only a feature phone. Selling only 250 000 is not going to help Apple reach their 10 million target very well. At least 160 million mobile phones were sold in Europe in 2006, by people like "Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola and LG." If they are just ahead of the people (HP, RIM, Palm) who each sold at best 0.5% of that market, it really does not say much.

    Also you seem impressed by people saying they will buy it. Talk is cheap, but if the unsubsidized price is 300 (and Apple refuses a subsidy as they did with Cingular) I doubt this will translate as readily to real sales.

    Surur
    05-16-2007 04:26 PM
  10. Certs's Avatar
    You have to consider the iPhone a smart phone. It has a multitasking OS< full web capability, HTML email, office document viewers, etc. etc.
    05-16-2007 06:44 PM
  11. surur's Avatar
    You have to consider the iPhone a smart phone. It has a multitasking OS< full web capability, HTML email, office document viewers, etc. etc.
    As you well know, it misses the one defining feature, that being an open OS to which you can add your own third party apps. I have also not heard of any office viewers.

    Also, as yourself this. Do you expect the IPhone to sell to the smartphone market, or the phone poseur market?

    Surur
    05-16-2007 06:55 PM
  12. marcol's Avatar
    I see your problem here. You think the IPhone is a smartphone, when its actually only a feature phone.
    Actually I think it's debatable, but I also think the label isn't very important. I posted the 'smart mobile device' data from Canalys essentially because it had sales of HP and RIM devices (we were discussing the two companies).

    Selling only 250 000 is not going to help Apple reach their 10 million target very well. At least 160 million mobile phones were sold in Europe in 2006, by people like "Nokia, Sony Ericsson, Samsung, Motorola and LG." If they are just ahead of the people (HP, RIM, Palm) who each sold at best 0.5% of that market, it really does not say much.
    250 000 over four quarters gets them 10% of the way there, but, again, you're ignoring the fact that the interest Canalys reports is for an unreleased product, early in it's lifecycle.

    Also you seem impressed by people saying they will buy it. Talk is cheap, but if the unsubsidized price is 300 (and Apple refuses a subsidy as they did with Cingular) I doubt this will translate as readily to real sales.
    I do think the level of interest the product has generated is pretty remarkable. At this point I think things are going about as well as Apple could have reasonably expected, i.e. lots of people seem interested in the iPhone. Cost is of course an issue, but remember that the prices of the two devices in the US have been known since the announcement and are presumably known by all those people who say they will buy it. I do sort of agree with the 'talk is cheap' comment. Not in the sense that I think a large proportion of those surveyed were lying when they said they wanted it, but it's of course possible that many will change their minds. I suspect that Littlepat's spot on when he says early experiences and reports will be very important in determining how does in the market.
    05-16-2007 07:23 PM
  13. marcol's Avatar
    Forget the hype for now, there are people who are going to buy this thing @ launch FOR SURE. The bottom line is user opinion, if this thing gets bad reviews/ bugs found right away, Apple will have a problem. Everyone is interested in it, which IS EXPECTED since most of us own Ipods AND phones, who wouldn't be interested in a 2-for1 device?
    I agree. When I first saw the device my first thought was that the whole one button thing would be off-putting and might relegate it to a small niche, but as best we can tell from the various surveys we've seen that doesn't seem a major factor.

    Interesting to try to think of bad user experiences that could kill the iPhone. Here are just a few that come to mind:

    1) Most people find they really can't get by without physical number keys and/or the touch-based UI (incl. the QWERTY) turns out to be tricky.
    2) In reality it's not half as pretty as it looks in the pictures.
    3) When they actually hold it people think it's too big.
    4) It's buggy, unstable, perhaps dropping calls or having other functions that just don't work as expected or it crashes.
    5) It breaks.
    6) It has poor voice quality.
    7) It has bad battery life.
    8) It has poor music quality.
    9) The screen scratches easily.
    10) It's slippery.

    Etc, etc. Mostly stuff that's true of any device like this. At this point (as I was saying above) things seem to be going pretty well for Apple. They've designed a device that (on paper at least) people seem to like and say they want to buy. It's perhaps a little trite to say all they need to do now is deliver, but certainly they do need to do that, and that's no small task. Apple of course have lots of expertise in designing electronic devices and OSs that go on them, but on the other hand this is a first gen device and their first phone. I suspect they will get it more-or-less right, but given the level of hype and anticipation, the capacity for (perceived) failure really is quite huge.
    05-16-2007 07:37 PM
  14. Certs's Avatar
    As you well know, it misses the one defining feature, that being an open OS to which you can add your own third party apps. I have also not heard of any office viewers.

    Also, as yourself this. Do you expect the IPhone to sell to the smartphone market, or the phone poseur market?

    Surur
    I would GUESS a little of both. MANY Treo owners are not business customers.

    Widgets, 3rd party apps, they all remain to be seen. Supposedly there's a hold 'em "widget" that will be on the iphone? Sounds like a 3rd party app to me...

    I will re-check the office viewers, but I thought I read that it had a viewer but you could not edit. I'll check that..
    05-16-2007 08:55 PM
  15. surur's Avatar
    I would GUESS a little of both. MANY Treo owners are not business customers.

    Widgets, 3rd party apps, they all remain to be seen. Supposedly there's a hold 'em "widget" that will be on the iphone? Sounds like a 3rd party app to me...
    Apple's sandbox apps arnt really what a smartphone is about, is it? I note that less than a month before launch no software SDK or design guidelines have been released to the public, and Steve is still "wrestling" with the idea of third party apps.

    Surur
    05-17-2007 02:22 AM
  16. mikec#IM's Avatar
    Unless the iPhone booms out of the gate, it will be considered a bust, given all the hype.

    Let's see what wins out:

    In the light corner, the "coolness" of Apple, fanboys, and earlier adopters.

    In the dark corner:

    - Non-user replaceable battery
    - Stinkular service
    - $500 pricetag
    - no 3rd party apps
    - EDGE - no 3G
    - no expansion port

    I guess we will see in a month...
    05-20-2007 09:32 PM
  17. marcol's Avatar
    mikec, on the the basis of your list there's nothing good about the device itself at all so the dark has it all the way
    05-21-2007 05:21 AM
  18. treobk214's Avatar
    This buildup is similar to what the palm fanboys were hyping up the treo 600 to be before it arrived, remember?

    Look, there are going to be palm fanboys, apple fanboys, yankee fanboys and boston fanboys. Each is going to say the other is a total and utter disaster, an absolute failure just waiting to happen. All that is just preposterous nonsense.

    The iphone is going to do very, very well, despite all these naysaying crystal ballers here. There will ALWAYS be room for improvement, as each newtreo CLEARLY shows us EVERY SINGLE YEAR, but on the whole the iphone will be a big success, despite anything others here try to say to the contrary.

    So sit back, relax, and watch as the iphone takes the mobile phone industry by storm....

    Let the countdown begin....
    05-21-2007 11:03 AM
  19. Certs's Avatar
    The iphone is going to do very, very well, despite all these naysaying crystal ballers here...

    ...but on the whole the iphone will be a big success, despite anything others here try to say to the contrary...
    Sound like a crystal baller yourself, no?

    The question is just that, will it be a big success, despite the HUGE price tag even for new contracts. LOWEST price is like 500 bucks for the 8 GB, no? Or 600? I don't even remember.

    There is no question that the PS3 is the best gaming system out there right now, as far as performance. But lack of games and huge price tag have made PS3 sales embarassing. Compare the two, PS3 vs iPhone:

    Huge price vs huge price
    no games vs lack of 3rd party apps

    It is very possible that after the initial hype the iphone will not be a success. I'm not saying it will happen, but it very well could....
    05-21-2007 11:45 AM
  20. treobk214's Avatar
    Sound like a crystal baller yourself, no?

    The question is just that, will it be a big success, despite the HUGE price tag even for new contracts. LOWEST price is like 500 bucks for the 8 GB, no? Or 600? I don't even remember.

    There is no question that the PS3 is the best gaming system out there right now, as far as performance. But lack of games and huge price tag have made PS3 sales embarassing. Compare the two, PS3 vs iPhone:

    Huge price vs huge price
    no games vs lack of 3rd party apps

    It is very possible that after the initial hype the iphone will not be a success. I'm not saying it will happen, but it very well could....
    How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

    I rest my case
    05-21-2007 12:12 PM
  21. Malatesta's Avatar
    How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

    I rest my case
    You rest your case? That's your argument?

    As technology becomes more mainstream, demand goes up...manufacturing costs go down. Then it becomes widely adopted and everyone is happy.

    If I buy an LCD HDTV today I mostly certainly paid less for it now than I did 3 years ago (or even 6 months ago).

    Smart-devices are the same, the trend is for those prices to drop not rise. The new Palm 755p is only $279.

    The Motorola Q and Samsung Blackjack are both $79.99!

    iPhone = $599.

    That's a huge difference and you even loose broadband. Yikes. Sure the iPhone has some newer technology in it...but it's still just a fancy phone that plays music, that's it. Is it worth the $500 increase? We'll have to see.

    Your argument is extremely poor.
    05-21-2007 12:59 PM
  22. Certs's Avatar
    How much did the lowly treo 600 cost when it made its debut? i believe it was somewhere... around.... $500 to $600, wasnt it? and that was BACK THEN!!!

    I rest my case
    There's no case to rest, I stated that the price may drive people away from the iphone because competition is cheaper, as is the case w/the PS3. I proposed a THEORY, not a PREDICTION.

    Besides, the smartphone market was very young back then, and I believe if you wanted the best flip phones (v60, etc) they would run you 2-300 bucks, 4-5 without contract. Man that was a long time ago.
    05-21-2007 01:21 PM
  23. surur's Avatar
    I dont think anyone, even me, would dare predict the IPhone wont sell well, but I take exception to it being called a very good smartphone.

    Surur
    05-21-2007 02:28 PM
  24. treobk214's Avatar
    How much do the ipods which play video go for?

    I'd expect many of the people who buy the iphone will be those upgrading from their ipods.

    That will probably be the base apple draws from.
    05-21-2007 03:55 PM
  25. treobk214's Avatar
    There will also be some treo users making the switchover to the iphone.

    The business iphone may very well be the next incarnation or generation following this one. I'd be fairly certain you'll see ev-do or wimax onboard those devices in that series. We will see.

    The business smart iphone. Whether or not apple encroaches on that end of the market depends on how their devices pass on battery life, ease of data input, stability, PIM apps, etc.

    Apple will capture the attention of consumers: ipod users as well as some business users with the first iphone. Building upon that success, apple will gradually expand their appeal to other areas of the market.
    05-21-2007 07:01 PM
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