Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move: Matthew Lynn

Malatesta

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Well, I'm not exactly saying I agree or disagree with him but what I did like about the article is it's one of the few that talks about other things besides the functions of the phone (which is not out yet, obviously):

So he has 3 major reasons he doesn't see the iPhone as having a huge of an impact on the industry as others:

1) First, Apple is late to this party...
2) Network Opposition...(you have to play by Apple's rules)
3) The iPhone is a defensive product...

#1 is obvious: there's upwards of 850 million cell phones out there and Apple is just jumping in, so obviously instead of defining the field, it has to re-define. It's a challenge, no doubt and not the best of positions to be in.

I think #2 is true too not that it can't be different here but lets face it: Apple sets very high standards for its products and does not like to compromise or negotiate with other companies that might not "get" what they want to do.

It's a double-edged sword: great products but tough to market. Plus, as the article points out, Nokia etc. will cut special deals with the companies to keep Apple out.

#3 was really the only surprise for myself. I never thought about it but it is true that more and more mobile phones are doing the "Music" thing (Sayno, M1 1gb for $199 on Sprint is getting there, Nokia already has a bunch. Not that they are in the same league as the iPhone, but you get the idea).

Do music-phones cut into iPods revenue? Would people move more and more to them as memory increases? :confused: Maybe. I think in a year or two, everyone will be offering 4 or 8gb of flash storage in phones and yes, eventually had Apple not done anything, they would really be on the defensive as the iPod lost ground.

So I thought that was an interesting notion and some points that are just spot on.

Now, will Apple "...sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."

Who knows at this point but obviously this guy thinks not.
 

marcol

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So he has 3 major reasons he doesn't see the iPhone as having a huge of an impact on the industry as others:

1) First, Apple is late to this party...
2) Network Opposition...(you have to play by Apple's rules)
3) The iPhone is a defensive product...
1) and 3) are pretty interesting if you consider them together and they betray the colour of the spectacles the author is wearing. Change them for another pair and you could say that: 1) iPhone is an offensive product because Apple's not in the phone market and doesn't have a position to protect, and 2) they're not late to the party because they're the market leader in the portable music player market. You pays your money and you chooses your spin.
 

mobileman

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I have never seen in all my years people get as defensive as they do if anybody says anything negative about this phone. Some people cant seem to compute that without some of the features that we "smartphone fanatics" have grown accustomed to, the iPhone is just a glorified ipod.

Without Exchange Direct Push, I cant get access to my corporate email. Do I need to carry two phones with me then? I also rely on IM services to communicate with clients, do I need to change the way I work because Steve Jobs doesnt think I need it.

People, this phone is really pretty, but its clearly not for everybody.
 

Tastypeppers

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The automotive world didn't end when the Lexus came out. The phone world won't end when the iPhone comes out. You can go on buying whatever you want and (guess what) it won't really matter. You are not your phone.
 

mesplin@earthli

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I have to give props to Apple's marketing. They are willing to spend the advertizing bucks and are, IMO, effective. An example is the PC guy and the Mac guy ads. I would guess that they will continue to hype the iPhone.

As has been pointed out earlier in this thread, the product has produced an awful lot of interest. From reading the related threads, it appears that many Treo users are going to try the iPhone, if only out of curiosity. There are a lot of consumers who will buy the iPhone just because it is the latest thing. Apple is very good on "eye candy".

On the other hand, when you look at the evolution of the Mac
computers, Apple has been addressing what for me was a big drawback, compatibility with other PC's. The problem has been addressed and solved, at least in my case, with the dual core Mac that can run both as a PC and as a Mac. I am not going to buy an iPhone (even if it was available on Sprint) because my Treo 700p serves my needs better than what I understand the iPhone would do. (The removable battery is a big issue for me as well as the keypad issue and the no card issue). But I would not be surprised to see Apple put out a later version which appeals more to the business user. At that point, unless Palm has got its act together and addressed the issues raised in this forum, I may be in the market.
 

Pearl_Diva

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1) and 3) are pretty interesting if you consider them together and they betray the colour of the spectacles the author is wearing. Change them for another pair and you could say that: 1) iPhone is an offensive product because Apple's not in the phone market and doesn't have a position to protect, and 2) they're not late to the party because they're the market leader in the portable music player market. You pays your money and you chooses your spin.

I think he was saying that Apple is trying to keep iPod customers from using those other makers' music phones instead of the iPod. Give them an iPod phone and they'll stay with Apple.

As another poster was saying in another thread, he rarely saw an iPod overseas because of all those music phones.
 

Pearl_Diva

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I have never seen in all my years people get as defensive as they do if anybody says anything negative about this phone. Some people cant seem to compute that without some of the features that we "smartphone fanatics" have grown accustomed to, the iPhone is just a glorified ipod.
Without Exchange Direct Push, I cant get access to my corporate email. Do I need to carry two phones with me then? I also rely on IM services to communicate with clients, do I need to change the way I work because Steve Jobs doesnt think I need it.

People, this phone is really pretty, but its clearly not for everybody.

If they actually came out with a video iPod with that screen, I'd be in line! :D
 

Malatesta

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1) and 3) are pretty interesting if you consider them together and they betray the colour of the spectacles the author is wearing. Change them for another pair and you could say that: 1) iPhone is an offensive product because Apple's not in the phone market and doesn't have a position to protect, and 2) they're not late to the party because they're the market leader in the portable music player market. You pays your money and you chooses your spin.
eh, that sounds like spin :D I mean, they do have a "portable music player market" to defend don't they since they are market leader? So this does sound defensive. If they don't react in a year or two the mobile phone biz could significantly cut into iPod sales.

They may not have a position to protect but they are entering a saturated market. A lot of discussion in the mobile biz has been how there are too many OS's out there (Palm, WM5, Symbian, Linux, soon ALP) and the market cannot sustain even that many.

They're also going to have negotiate with these big companies which they have little experience with and not a great reputation for (since they often like to go-it alone and not to compromise their ideals) and are going to have to fight for contracts, whereas companies like Nokia are going to try to undercut them along the way.

I think your characterization misses those important notes and would basically say Apple has no barriers to the market, don't worry. I don't think realistically that is the case. How much those barriers will actually affect performance is anyone's guess.
 

Pearl_Diva

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Where's ALP?? I barely even see a Linux phone(too bad though). Palm OS's days are numbered.

Mobile OS X looks way better than the Palm OS.
 

Felipe#WP

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If they actually came out with a video iPod with that screen, I'd be in line! :D

I got a feeling you wont be seeing this for a while.

It will cut into iPhone sales.


Palm OS's days are numbered

no it isnt. Palm the Hardware manufacture didnt but the rights to it, to not use it.

It might be the OS for low cost smart phones, if they cant get it to work with wi-fi or 3g, but they will use it for something.

Mobile OS X looks way better than the Palm OS

it is pretier, but we dont know how it works. the only ppl who used it so far are JOB and Pogue, and pouge had issues (not that he isnt buying one when it comes out).
 

meyerweb#CB

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What? An iToaster? Where can I get that! That's the best thing since sliced bread!!!

I've always wondered.... What was the best thing BEFORE sliced bread?

The automotive world didn't end when the Lexus came out. The phone world won't end when the iPhone comes out. You can go on buying whatever you want and (guess what) it won't really matter. You are not your phone.

What? I'm not? Then why do I have all these little buttons around my belly?

Seriously, it would seem a voice of reason has no place in the discussion of the iPhone. It's obviously an emotional / religious experience. You either accept on faith that this is the most brilliant consumer device ever made (or at least the most brilliant phone ever made), or you're a "hater." :mad:

specimen38 said:
I wonder what the motivation is for those who are so negative. Some of the posting are so
soooo... :confused:

Hmm, I find myself wondering why anyone who has the slightest doubt about the qualities of the phone, or who even suggests that we wait until the phone is actually available before evaluating it, is regarded as declaring war against Apple?

Chill people. We're all entitled to our opinion, but it seems a bit premature to annoint the iPhone before anyone's actually touched one, much less used it for a week or two to see how well it really works. To answer specimen's question, though, I think any negativity you see is simply a reaction to the unbridled adoration of the Applephiles, and the mass media, all of whom swallowed Steve Job's pronouncements as if they came from Jesus / Mohammed / Budda / Brahma (pick the deity / prophet of your choice*) himself. Maybe this will be the greatest thing since sliced bread. Maybe not. Not a single one of us knows, yet.

*Personally, I'm rather fond of Cardea, the Roman Goddess of door hinges.

No, I'm not joking: http://www.unrv.com/culture/minor-roman-god-list.php :D
 

NextDream

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Looks like palm has added another journalist to the payroll. It really reminds me of "expert witnesses" in court cases. This is just some guy....rest assured there will be more...being compensated to take the shine off the apple, so to speak.

I do find it interesting however that every single article bashing the iPhone ends up on TreoCentral....but then we all know who butters their bread.
 

Malatesta

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Looks like palm has added another journalist to the payroll.
Don't challenge the points in the article just attack the author's integrity...:shake:

I do find it interesting however that every single article bashing the iPhone ends up on TreoCentral....but then we all know who butters their bread.
I don't see any restrictions on you posting any articles praising the iPhone, so go right ahead.

It will indeed offer balance.
 

marcol

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eh, that sounds like spin :D
It was meant to! :) In case it wasn't completely obvious I was just trying to point out that if you applied the logic that Lynn used in discussing iPhone and the phone market to iPhone and the music player market, and if you applied the logic he used for iPhone and the music player market to iPhone and the phone market, you got the exact opposite conclusion. I didn't mean to give the impression that I thought either extreme was a correct analysis.

I mean, they do have a "portable music player market" to defend don't they since they are market leader?
Of course. But equally couldn't you say that Nokia and other leaders in the phone biz have have positions to defend in that market?

ISo this does sound defensive. If they don't react in a year or two the mobile phone biz could significantly cut into iPod sales.
It could, but flip it around again. Couldn't you equally argue that the latest iPod (i.e. the iPhone) has a chance of significantly cutting into Nokia, Moto, and SE's shares of the phone market (which is arguably more saturated than the music player market)?

I think your characterization misses those important notes and would basically say Apple has no barriers to the market, don't worry. I don't think realistically that is the case.
Again, what I posted previously (and what I've said above) isn't what I personally think about the barriers the iPhone faces, it's a comment on (what seems to me to be) a rather extreme analysis from Matthew Lynn.

In the unlikely event you want my personal view, it's that the truth probably lies between the two extremes. Apple's position in the music player market probably will help the iPhone sell, but yes carrier negotiations and competition from the big phone manufacturers will probably be major hurdles. A couple of other points:

They may not have a position to protect but they are entering a saturated market.

I think saturation of both the music player and phone markets can be overstated. It may be that most people that want a phone or an iPod have one already but how many of those people will have the same devices in three years time? For a variety of reasons lots of people change devices quite frequently.

A lot of discussion in the mobile biz has been how there are too many OS's out there (Palm, WM5, Symbian, Linux, soon ALP) and the market cannot sustain even that many.

I have no idea about this. How many can it sustain? One, two, three? If we add mobile OS X (or whatever it's called) to that list we get six. Is that really much less sustainable than five?

They're also going to have negotiate with these big companies which they have little experience with and not a great reputation for (since they often like to go-it alone and not to compromise their ideals) and are going to have to fight for contracts

It may well not be easy and you may well be right about their go-it alone attitude. On the other hand, as best we can tell the negotiations with Cingular seem to have been concluded to both parties' satisfaction. Apple also have iPhone-related partnerships with Google and Yahoo, so perhaps go-it-alone-ism isn't completely endemic in the iPhone bit of Apple.

whereas companies like Nokia are going to try to undercut them along the way.
Agreed. Apple will either need to convince potential buyers that the iPhone is better than cheaper offerings or they'll have to drop the price.
 

surur

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Re too many OS's to support, some carriers are already rationalizing their offers, and going for the big 3 (Symbian, Linux, WM) e.g. Vodafone and DoCoMo.

Surur
 

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