My 2 cents
Let me make clear that I am in now way associated with Apple, one of their partners, or even know anyone who is. I do however have a pretty extensive background in marketing and management.
There will be no iPad 3 this year! Before you go an jump all over this, consider the following.
iPad 2 came out earlier this year. Apple can barely keep up with demand. Why would they release 3 when they are still selling 2s like crazy?
They still have not completely unloaded all of iPad 1s. When iPad 3 comes out, iPad 1 will be phased out. So 1s must be sold out at that point.
They are in the business of selling you on the fact that the new unit is 100x more magical then the previous one. Everyone believes that. People settled into upgrading to the newest and best every year. If they start cutting that yearly cycle, they will loose sales. Most people will not upgrade every 6 months. They will instead skip generations and stick to 1 per year. Because to wait a year, is to long, but to wait 6 months is manageable.
That's my two cents. If you think I am full of it, that't fine. But go ahead and look at what I posted about the iPhone 5.
When everyone was saying that it will come in June/July like usual, I said that it won't. I said that it will come somewhere around Thanksgiving. We still don't know when it is coming. I believe that earliest would be Sep 24 and the latest Nov 10. So October looks about right. That's pretty close to Thanksgiving. Why Thanksgiving? Because the Verizon iPhone came in Feb. and to release the new one 5 months later (July) could not happen. Now ATT people are being forced to wait over a year but only by a few months. So consider this; In the spirit to not piss anyone off too much since VR people got one in Feb and ATT people got one last June. This Oct is the happy median for the release. It makes the ATT cycle @15 month and the VR cycle @9 months. Also it allows Apple to shift their release schedule closer to Thanksgiving when everyone is doing the holiday shopping. Can you imagine how many more people will buy one as a gift for the holidays? Also when it first comes out it's a pain to get your hands on for the first month. October release would be perfect as it would be readily available right for the holiday shopping before the market is saturated with them. Strong year end sales will also boost stock prices -btw.
So iPad announcement is coming in January (right after the return period runs out for the holiday shoppers) with an early Feb release. That's my call. We will see if I am right again.