What are the chances the iPad 2 Launch will be tame?

[kittykatta]

Many people are freaking out about when to get in line or if they'll even have enough iPad 2's for them. But the more I think about it the more I feel the iPad 2 launch will be pretty tame. Here's my reasoning:

1) How busy would an iPhone launch if they weren't subsidized?
On subsidy the most expensive iPhone still costs less than the least expensive iPad 2. But would people still line up for a $500-800 phone?

2) The Verizon iPhone Launch
Verizon iPhone sales didnt spike at launch, they were gradual because it's not really a "new" productfor the most part then an incremental update (Carrier for iPhone/Camera for iPad) isn't something you sleep in dirt for.

3) Phones are necessities. Tablets are luxury devices.
Its hard to live without our smartphones, but many of us sold our iPad in order to get the new one and you know what we did? We went to a computer and to do the exact same tasks and life goes on. We may LOVE our iPads but we don't really NEED them.

4) Refurbs, Discounts and Good Enough
Most of us never felt the iPad needed more speed or better graphics until Steve Jobs told us to think that then the best value out there is the last gen. $349 for the base model puts them right in line with Netbooks (where they should be). And if you've got a $500 budget then you're looking at either 16GB iPad 2 or 64GB iPad so the better value is in last gen.

5) The iPad isn't Old!
We say things like "last years model" or "the old iPad" but let's not forget that the iPad is only 10mo old.

6) The iPad 3
BOTH the iPad and iPad 2 are fantastic machines but both are also widely accepted as interim devices until the iPad 3. So why invest so much money into an iPad 2 when you're likely going to sell it next year... and lose half the value just like all the original iPad owners.

So there you have it. There's a chance it will be busy but I'm really feeling that this is a product that will sell millions but over a long period of time and not in one evening.

 

[touchyphone]

1) The first iPhone wasn't subisdized, and those lines were way long. I'd gather most iPhone owners have had to get iPhones without discounts.

2) Actually, VZW sold most if it's iPhones ONLINE 500k I believe. Further factor in most of the east coast was covered in snow and temperatures in the teens , the entire launch weekend.

3) Thats YOUR OPINION. As I do NEED MY IPAD. My company has interfaces that only work on iPads now, help us interact with customers better. That goes for other companies and people as well.

4) Again, YOUR OPINION. I have always been one who's said the iPad 1 needs to be faster, I'd say a majority of iPad1 owners want/wanted a speedier iPad!

5) Actually it is old, it has specs not equal to this years standards and crop of other tablets. Technology is old the day you buy it and open the box.

6) Thats the nature of every electronic, not just Apple stuff or iPads!

 

[pogeypre]

Many people are freaking out about when to get in line or if they'll even have enough iPad 2's for them. But the more I think about it the more I feel the iPad 2 launch will be pretty tame. Here's my reasoning:

1) How busy would an iPhone launch if they weren't subsidized?
On subsidy the most expensive iPhone still costs less than the least expensive iPad 2. But would people still line up for a $500-800 phone?

2) The Verizon iPhone Launch
Verizon iPhone sales didnt spike at launch, they were gradual because it's not really a "new" productfor the most part then an incremental update (Carrier for iPhone/Camera for iPad) isn't something you sleep in dirt for.

3) Phones are necessities. Tablets are luxury devices.
Its hard to live without our smartphones, but many of us sold our iPad in order to get the new one and you know what we did? We went to a computer and to do the exact same tasks and life goes on. We may LOVE our iPads but we don't really NEED them.

4) Refurbs, Discounts and Good Enough
Most of us never felt the iPad needed more speed or better graphics until Steve Jobs told us to think that then the best value out there is the last gen. $349 for the base model puts them right in line with Netbooks (where they should be). And if you've got a $500 budget then you're looking at either 16GB iPad 2 or 64GB iPad so the better value is in last gen.

5) The iPad isn't Old!
We say things like "last years model" or "the old iPad" but let's not forget that the iPad is only 10mo old.

6) The iPad 3
BOTH the iPad and iPad 2 are fantastic machines but both are also widely accepted as interim devices until the iPad 3. So why invest so much money into an iPad 2 when you're likely going to sell it next year... and lose half the value just like all the original iPad owners.

So there you have it. There's a chance it will be busy but I'm really feeling that this is a product that will sell millions but over a long period of time and not in one evening.

1 - I can honestly say that if I were on ATT back in the original iPhone days, I would have probably found a way to get one despite the huge cost. I think discounts allow a lot more people to take part in buying phones, but the days are gone when people are simply looking for a cheap phone.

2 - The Verizon iPhone sold well because there was already demand for the phone. And as has already been pointed out, the pre-sales alone outsold most platforms first months.

3 - I think that when it comes down to it, you are right. The majority of people do no need a tablet, though some may disagree. I think it would be fair to say that nearly all iPad users have found/invented some need or they wouldn't have bought it. (Likely invented the need to get the cost past their significant other... )

4 - This is the way technology works. You don't realize you "need" it until someone gives you a reason to do so. I would hardly say this is an Apple tactic as every technology company puts out new stuff every year.

5 - When Apple set a yearly refresh pattern for their devices, then the one from last year is last years device. Kind of like cars. If I bought a 2010 model brand new, it is still last years model.

6 - You have given your reasons for not buying the iPad 2. I don't think many people share your concern.

 

[dandbj13]

I doubt there will be insane lines, but for a very different reason. The lines will be tame because Apple is selling the iPad 2 at a lot more outlets on day 1 than the previous launch. People will be more spread out over a lot more places.

Having said that, they will still sell as many units as they have to sell...

and I will be in line at 8:30 Friday morning, just in case.

 

[kittykatta]

6 - You have given your reasons for not buying the iPad 2. I don't think many people share your concern.

Really? This is I put this much effort into thinking about lines and availability yet you assume I'm not buying one because I wasn't 100% complimentary on an Apple?

(BTW, I'm actually buying two iPad 2's on launch)

 

[Ipheuria]

I think iPad 2 will have line ups it's an Apple product and while you are looking at it you're thinking in terms of yourself or local but thinking about the large population in each city that is clamouring for this device. I think there will be alot of supply to meet the demand however because last year was the introduction of the device there were no competitors consumers could go to if supply ran low and Apple also had no idea how it was going to be received. They have to say they knew that there was a demand for it and if they made it perhaps they did know but they couldn't say with certainty that it was going to sell the way it did. So now that they know the huge demand for the product it's easier to estimate how many to produce. I also don't agree with your points 3 and 4.

3. Although I do agree that the iPad is not a necessity I told all my friends when the details of the iPad was released that I was getting one. I knew with certainty what role it would fulfill for me. I'm sure I'm not the only one so yes there are people who pick it up although they have a device that does the same things but there are others who have a specific use in mind for it.

4. I also was glad about the spec upgrade and not because Steve Jobs said so. I have had a minor annoyance when using the mail app which I never have doing the same thing on the iPhone. So I know with certainty that the slow down and sticking will be gone with the new processor and what I'm hoping is an upgrade to 512MB of RAM.

 

[pogeypre]

Really? This is I put this much effort into thinking about lines and availability yet you assume I'm not buying one because I wasn't 100% complimentary on an Apple?

(BTW, I'm actually buying two iPad 2's on launch)

I am sorry I misunderstood your intentions. You posted 6 points on why people may not buy the iPad 2. It was only natural to assume that since you wrote them, that they were your reasons.

 

[epb]

I am sorry I misunderstood your intentions. You posted 6 points on why people may not buy the iPad 2. It was only natural to assume that since you wrote them, that they were your reasons.

Actually, they were reasons why the iPad 2 launch wouldn't be as hectic as the original, not why people wouldn't buy the iPad 2.

Personally, I think that outside the usual early adopters that have to have the latest gadget the first day, the launch will be pretty mild, though the press for Apple will still be good (think line for a late-nite Rocky Hooror Pictiure Show screening with techno-nerds). Pretty much everyone that wants one has one already, and that makes the desire to rush out for the next version less urgent - just stick with your current one until getting the new one isn't a hassle. If you feel the urge building, I suggest looking at the receipt for the last one - the date (less than a year ago) and the price should have a chilling effect.

 

[stkywik]

Well, I'm in line at the apple store in Cincinnati and I can say that there are a LOT of people here. Right now it's a crapshoot whether I'm going to be able to get one.

 

[cardfan]

No one in line at my walmart but me. Looking at DVDs now. At least im first

 

[pogeypre]

How's 1 million over the weekend? Doesn't sound too tame.

 

[Garz]

How's 1 million over the weekend? Doesn't sound too tame.

Yes it was far from tame. Very successful weekend for Apple

 

[AppleFan]

So, are lines still there? What are the chances of getting an iPad 2 (64GB/3g/WiFi) by simply going to an Apple store and picking one up?

 

[OTACORB]

I wouldn't book on it. I think you might could find one that is wifi/3G at a Best Buy. I just did some online stock checks and it seems several stores I checked had stock on those. I know my local store told me this evening they still had 2 white in stock for Verizon. But if you just want the WIFI not likely.