Iphone exclusive with AT&T

[morningstar1844#IM]

No worry for Palm in the CDMA area for a while. Here's a posting from engadget.com Verzionn states there is going to be war.

There are carrier exclusivity agreements, and there are carrier exclusivity agreements -- and Apple's iPhone deal must have been pretty sweet for Cupertino to guarantee their new hotness to AT&T and AT&T alone for five friggin years. USA Today reports the supposed half-decade deal precludes Apple from developing a CDMA handset in that time (duh), meaning that if you live in the US and don't want to move to AT&T, it's going to be 2012 before you even have a chance at an iPhone. Better still, Today reports that Cingular's arch-nemesis Verizon is claiming to have an iPhone-killer in the wings. According to Denny Strigl, Verizon CEO, "We do have a very good response in the mill. You'll see that from us in the late summer." It's war, people, make no mistake about it.

[Thanks, Eric]

 

[mikec#IM]

hmm

I think this a big mistake by Apple. 5 years is an eternity, and I will bet $1,000 this agreement is broken before then.

If Apple only made iTunes for Mac (and not Windows), it would have never taken off.

To me, this info will dampen sales for those thnking the iPhone would be on other carriers in a year or so. They will buy something else.

 

[ktm97]

The Iphone killer in the wings is probably going to be like the zune taking over the ipod.

 

[surur]

The Iphone killer in the wings is probably going to be like the zune taking over the ipod.

Thats a ridiculous statement, seeing how its the Iphone entering a very mature market here, very unlike the ipod saga. Do you think Motorola, Sony Erricson and Nokia are just going to give up the high-end market crown just like that?

Surur

 

[RICHINMJ]

I find it strange that people are talking about the iphone killer. Nothing can kill the iphone because no one has one yet.

 

[Kupe#WP]

meaning that if you live in the US and don't want to move to AT&T, it's going to be 2012 before you even have a chance at an iPhone.

Or to put it more correctly, Apple has has snubbed the #1 wireless company in the US (Verizon) and the #3 wireless company (Sprint) for a questionably useful, eternally long-term alliance with (*gasp!*) AT&T. Talk about a pact with the devil! :shake:

 

[crespowu]

meaning that if you live in the US and don't want to move to AT&T, it's going to be 2012 before you even have a chance at an iPhone.it.

Five years is really too long,I think there will be more attractive cell phones in the near future.This decision will drive away many potential iPhone users.

 

[taroliw]

I suppose all this hand-wringing about Verizon would make sense... until you start thinking globally. Any idea where the giants like Nokia sell most of their phones? Ain't in the US. It's my understanding (from someone who should know) that the only reason Nokia even bothers to make CDMA phones is that there was strong enough customer demand from US carriers; but those same carriers aren't what you'd call impressed with the CDMA radio performance Nokia delivers.

Maybe WCDMA, HSDPA, etc (3G) will converge networks... but in today's reality, CDMA is a limiting factor for anyone wanting to go global. Did Apple tie it's hands in the US by limiting itself to GSM (and later HSDPA) for 5 years? Sure. But they left themselves open for an even larger (some might argue many orders of magnitude larger) market overseas. (Just look at how Palm is chasing after global markets now to improve it's business...) After all, various market reports I read about the US mobile market suggest that most US customers are really only interested in voice anyway... that all this PDA, music, and networking are not generally interesting to the majority. Sure, I don't count myself in that group (and I doubt anyone actually participating in these forums would)... but the market is what speaks. And in the US it generally cries for voice.

So... I don't necessarily think Apple will hit a home run it's first time out the door. After all, look at how many changes it made to the iPod. But I also don't count them out just because they're newcomers either.

 

[surur]

In fact the GSM networks are a lot more competitive than even Apple expects. By the time the iphone gets to UK it will just look like a larger LG Prada phone, and by the end of the year when it gets here the Prada II with DBTV will be out already.

Surur

 

[marcol]

By the time the iphone gets to UK it will just look like a larger LG Prada phone, and by the end of the year when it gets here the Prada II with DBTV will be out already.

I watched this Engadget video of the Prada other day:

http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/02/video-lg-prada-phone-complete-interface-walkthrough/

Not the most feature-rich of devices (even by iPhone standards), but pretty sweet none-the-less. Certainly nothing wrong with looking like that

 

[marcol]

That said, the DMB version of the of the Prada seems to have turned into a one-armed bandit

http://www.engadget.com/2007/04/18/lgs-prada-now-with-dmb-tv/

 

[PSM]

After all, various market reports I read about the US mobile market suggest that most US customers are really only interested in voice anyway...

I don't claim to predict what will happen, but I will point out that before the iPod there were a number of MP3 players, but a lot of people (probably a majority) were still carrying around regular ol' CD players until the iPod became really big. Now if you see somebody with a Discman it's like, "What's wrong with you, why are you carrying around that huge thing with so little music?"

Not everyone with a portable music device uses the iPod brand, but it can't be denied that the majority do, and that it was the iPod that changed the format people use to carry their music around, whether they use an Apple product or not. I think in the same way the iPhone could actually be the force that inspires people who would otherwise think data use on a cell phone was too nerdy or high-tech for them, and it will become as commonplace as carrying an MP3 player.

Or it could flop horribly, I suppose. But Apple has already created a market where one didn't exist in portable music players, and they could do it again with phones.

 

[Malatesta]

Or it could flop horribly, I suppose. But Apple has already created a market where one didn't exist in portable music players, and they could do it again with phones.

I don't think any of us even propose it will "flop" just that it won't be as huge as everyone thinks.

The iPod situation doesn't really count. That was literally an entirely new market with a void of a major player.

The phone market is very different. Like I said in an earlier post, Apple is more or less reacting to an existing market.

They will create a sub-market with the iPhone: high priced/high end almost luxury phones (can't wait to hear about the muggings here in NYC! ) but the idea that a $600 phone will become dominant, that I find hard to believe.

I have friends in their 20's who still don't have cameras on their phones or pay more than $50 for one, let alone wanting to watch videos or replace their current 30gb ipods. Even me with my dorky habit of the 6700, 700wx, 650 and Moto Q have not convinced many to get one.

 

[marcol]

They will create a sub-market with the iPhone: high priced/high end almost luxury phones (can't wait to hear about the muggings here in NYC! ) but the idea that a $600 phone will become dominant, that I find hard to believe.

I don't think anyone is predicting that. Apple's stated aim is 1% of the market by the end of 2008. The highest percentage I've seen predicted was from Steve Ballmer (oddly enough). He said 2 or 3% (but didn't give a time frame). Of course 1, 2 or 3% of a billion device per annum market is a lot of phones, but nothing approaching dominance. Personally I have my doubts that Apple will ever even try for the bulk of the market, at least not if that means producing cheap, low-end (and low-margin) devices.