How soon will 3GS mania die down?

[thinkTwice]

After July 19th, when will things calm down to the point where I can just stroll into Apple/AT&T and just pick up an iPhone?

How long did the craziness of the 3G release last until you could just go into a store and buy one?

 

[ptb6744#IM]

Not to be overly picky but it June 19th, not July 19th. Secondly, since the iPhone 3G was such a fantastic selling piece and most if not all of those consumers would have to pay the 399 or 499 price for it, i'd say the mania won't nearly be as long as it was for the 3g so probably in about 2-3 weeks after launch will supplies be in good shape.

 

[thinkTwice]

Not to be overly picky but it June 19th, not July 19th. Secondly, since the iPhone 3G was such a fantastic selling piece and most if not all of those consumers would have to pay the 399 or 499 price for it, i'd say the mania won't nearly be as long as it was for the 3g so probably in about 2-3 weeks after launch will supplies be in good shape.

Oops sorry- June 19th.

You really think it's not going to be that crazy? If the pre-orders for At&t sold out, that must mean something. There seems to be a certain level of disappointment with the 3GS for current iPhone owners, but for those first timers it's still a great phone.

 

[Watcher]

Oops sorry- June 19th.

You really think it's not going to be that crazy? If the pre-orders for At&t sold out, that must mean something. There seems to be a certain level of disappointment with the 3GS for current iPhone owners, but for those first timers it's still a great phone.

It's like crack, baby... they keep you wanting more!

 

[chobbs1]

I too think that the 3GS is going to be a BIG BIG seller. I didn't fall for the 3g phone when it came out so am unaware how long it took for things to die down. but if your going to wait then be prepared to wait at least 3 or 4 weeks. that way if it is sooner you will be pleasantly surprised.

 

[missdee]

It's like crack, baby... they keep you wanting more!

true that!

i totally agree with everyone else. i would only think a few weeks. and i dont think it will be as crazy as it has been in the past.

 

[traylorc]

One would assume that with the launch of the 3Gs, there would be less demand than the launch of the 3G. Simply put, currently there is a much larger Apple subscriber base. Meaning, that most folks that wanted an Iphone already have one.

Secondly, you have to consider how the economy is going to impact potential sales. Consumers have less disposable income now, than 12-15 months ago.

Thirdly, I wouldn't be surprised if the decision to lower the 3G to $99 cannibalizes sales of the 3Gs. If people determine that applying the new update to the 3G gives them a phone they can live with, they may not feel the need to grab the 3Gs. Additionally, the $99 3Gs would appeal to those individuals whose disposable income has deteriorated.

Lastly, it would not surprise me if Apple "managed" the supply of the 3Gs after the initial launch. You know the old saying, "people want what they can't have". So if carefully control the amount of 3Gs phones at launch, restrict the supply of iphones for a couple of weeks, the media will eventually run with stories about how the 3Gs is sold out. If you are hear stories on how Apples third generation phone has sold out, and you are on the fence about buying an iphone, you may think to yourself "man it must really be a good phone. Maybe I need to get one".

Personally I wonder if after the first couple of weeks after launch, it becomes more challenging to find the 16 gig rather than the 32 gig. I'm sure there are a number of potential customers that would rather pay $199 to buy a new iphone rather than $299. Therefore you may see plenty of 32 gigs, while the 16 gigs may be harder to find.

Isn't rampant speculation fun??

 

[Duvi]

Well, no one thought the 3G would have been as big as the 2G launch... well it surpassed it by a lot.

So, I'm starting to think that those that didn't upgrade from the 2G will definitely be getting the 3Gs.

 

[OmariJames]

After AT&T gets MMS. I think people will continue to complain. When AT&T released it, it will die down.

 

[missdee]

Secondly, you have to consider how the economy is going to impact potential sales. Consumers have less disposable income now, than 12-15 months ago.

all of what you said seems true, but this seems like a huge factor. i already have the 3g, and even if i were eligible for an upgrade i still wouldnt buy the 3gs. one of the reasons - well i dont have any extra money right now!

 

[msm0511]

I think it'll be a little easier for Apple/AT&T to handle the crowds and number of people who want the 3GS. I'm sure they've learned something in the past 2 years of iPhone releases. Plus,this is the first year they've allowed pre-orders,so a lot of people won't even have to go to a retail location to pick up the phone. I'm more worried about iTunes being able to handle all the traffic on the server end.

That said,I think this is gonna be another huge release weekend for the iPhone.

 

[chobbs1]

if the pre-orders are any indication, regardless of disposable income, then this is gonna be huge.

I agree that economically this is a bad time. I also know that, even though most people are scared, most people's economic situation has not changed. As time marches on, these people, that were once scared begin, to feel more and more secure and they'll start spending again...at least that's the boat I'm in. and I am not one that has loads of disposable income.

 

[msm0511]

if the pre-orders are any indication, regardless of disposable income, then this is gonna be huge.

From everything I've read,the wireless market is one of the only things that grew in this economic downturn.Smartphone use has grown leaps and bounds recently and doesn't really show any signs of changing. Smartphones are now becoming more of a necessity for not only business users,but consumers alike. Apple especially has shown that while not recession proof,they are not hurting like other tech companies.

I guess that rambling mess was just a long-winded "I agree"

 

[E Pow]

i think the madness will die down around the time the 2nd shipment of 3g S come in for the people that didnt get them on launch day. I know when the 3G was launched last year here in Cincinnati it took about a month before you could just stroll into the Apple store without it being crazy and take your time and talk with a specialist and browse and purchase one.

 

[traylorc]

From everything I've read,the wireless market is one of the only things that grew in this economic downturn.Smartphone use has grown leaps and bounds recently and doesn't really show any signs of changing. Smartphones are now becoming more of a necessity for not only business users,but consumers alike. Apple especially has shown that while not recession proof,they are not hurting like other tech companies.

Great point.

I don't believe Apple is going to suffer a financial loss from rolling out the 3Gs. But maybe the economy makes the 3Gs launch a "great" launch as opposed to a "record breaking" launch.

And to be honest I think Apple would be okay with a "great/strong" launch of the 3Gs because I think they are going to see a spike in their overall customer base because of their decision to price the 3G at $99. In my opinion that's going to encourage a number of folks to take the plunge and pick up an Iphone.

 

[gtGarrrett]

I'm guessing two weeks after release, but that's just based off the 3G craze last summer

 

[taylorh]

There are a fair number of people for which the bill on their line is over $99/month (often the primary line on a family plan) and will be upgrade eligible at 12 months. So I know of quite a few people that will go in for the upgrade on 7/10, 7/11 and around then. Nothing crazy necessarily but I think there will be a wave of demand then which would be just on the tail end of the 6/19 launch demand dying down.

 

[thinkTwice]

Great point.

I don't believe Apple is going to suffer a financial loss from rolling out the 3Gs. But maybe the economy makes the 3Gs launch a "great" launch as opposed to a "record breaking" launch.

And to be honest I think Apple would be okay with a "great/strong" launch of the 3Gs because I think they are going to see a spike in their overall customer base because of their decision to price the 3G at $99. In my opinion that's going to encourage a number of folks to take the plunge and pick up an Iphone.

I just don't see how the $99 iPhone is a better deal than the $199 3GS. Both phones have the same monthly plan, so it's not like you're saving any money on the monthly plans, which is what makes the phone expensive. If you can't stretch out to pay an extra $100 when you first get the phone, how can you pay $100/month for the next 2 years?

And I disagree- Apple needs an "insanely great" launch of the 3GS- most likely the next iPhone won't be released until June-July 2010. In the meantime, Android, Palm, BB, WinMo will be releasing more phones. So it needs to sustain the iPhone momentum.

 

[Entertainment72]

I too think that the 3GS is going to be a BIG BIG seller. I didn't fall for the 3g phone when it came out so am unaware how long it took for things to die down. but if your going to wait then be prepared to wait at least 3 or 4 weeks. that way if it is sooner you will be pleasantly surprised.

Jumping from the 2G to the 3G was a much much larger jump than 3G to 3Gs so you missed out. 3G to "s" is a skip.

 

[Entertainment72]

I just don't see how the $99 iPhone is a better deal than the $199 3GS. Both phones have the same monthly plan, so it's not like you're saving any money on the monthly plans, which is what makes the phone expensive. If you can't stretch out to pay an extra $100 when you first get the phone, how can you pay $100/month for the next 2 years?

And I disagree- Apple needs an "insanely great" launch of the 3GS- most likely the next iPhone won't be released until June-July 2010. In the meantime, Android, Palm, BB, WinMo will be releasing more phones. So it needs to sustain the iPhone momentum.

Well what keeps the iPhone models fresh is the unbelievable software Apple puts out of which NO phone manufacturer can even sneeze at. To top it off imagine now a 1st edition iPhone 2G STILL getting updated, come on. Apple has the business model down to a science, they just missed the boat on the 3Gs.
It will not be the hardware to keep the iPhone's "fresh" but the software where there is no competition whatsoever.
The best bang for the buck is still the 3G, the "s" is more toy than anything.