How soon will 3GS mania die down?

traylorc

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I just don't see how the $99 iPhone is a better deal than the $199 3GS. Both phones have the same monthly plan, so it's not like you're saving any money on the monthly plans, which is what makes the phone expensive. If you can't stretch out to pay an extra $100 when you first get the phone, how can you pay $100/month for the next 2 years?

And I disagree- Apple needs an "insanely great" launch of the 3GS- most likely the next iPhone won't be released until June-July 2010. In the meantime, Android, Palm, BB, WinMo will be releasing more phones. So it needs to sustain the iPhone momentum.

It's not a matter of whether I think the $99 3G iphone is a better deal than the $199 3Gs. Bottom line is that we live in a price sensitive society. And for some folks, the very idea of being able to pick up an iphone for less than $100 is a big deal. Particularly when you have heard stories about iphones being sold for $299, $399, $499, etc...

I'm sure there were a number of folks who could have easily afforded an iphone when it first came out but chose to wait until the second generation iphone when it came out with the hopes it would cost less. All Apple is attempting to do with the $99 pricing is to get a few more folks to take the plunge and join the Apple family. For some folks, once certain products break that $100 barrier, all the sudden it becomes a good deal.

Also, please define "insanely great" launch. What exactly has to occur for this launch to be insanely great? Is it number of units sold first day? Is it overall revenues generated the first week? Is it iphones selling out on the first day?? Is it having the media show tons of people waiting in line to purchase the new iphone?? If the 3Gs winds up selling 7% less units at it's launch than the 3G is that a failure given the current state of the economy??

At the end of the day it probably doesn't matter how you define an "insanely great" launch. The Apple PR machine is going to spin this launch as the best in the history of mankind regardless of actual unit sold or revenues generated.
 

chobbs1

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I do not feel the same as Ent.72. after having just payed over $500 dollars for a phone Apple came out with the 3G. If I were to upgrade I would have paid $399 plus an extra $10 a month for just the data plan. and the only discernible difference was GPS(cell triangulation always worked well for me) and faster cell network( i mostly used WiFi) plus the shiny black plastic (that cracked)

fast forward to today. now I get everything previously mentioned plus faster processor faster gpu double the ram, hardware support for even faster cell network (7.2mbs), video, compass! All for the same price! Now it is totally worth it, even if I have to have the crappy plastic. I am totally stoked! I feel almost the same as I did when I got the first IPhone! :D
 

anon(52425)

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depends on where you live. When I lived in Los Angeles and commuted back and forth to Portland, the demand for the iPhone 3G was insane in L.A. I couldnt find one anywhere. In Portland it was completely opposite. I called 3 ATT stores and an Apple store and they had plenty of stock. Where as L.A. everyone was telling me to "check back in a week"
 

thinkTwice

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It's not a matter of whether I think the $99 3G iphone is a better deal than the $199 3Gs. Bottom line is that we live in a price sensitive society. And for some folks, the very idea of being able to pick up an iphone for less than $100 is a big deal. Particularly when you have heard stories about iphones being sold for $299, $399, $499, etc...

Also, please define "insanely great" launch. What exactly has to occur for this launch to be insanely great? Is it number of units sold first day? Is it overall revenues generated the first week? Is it iphones selling out on the first day?? Is it having the media show tons of people waiting in line to purchase the new iphone?? If the 3Gs winds up selling 7% less units at it's launch than the 3G is that a failure given the current state of the economy??

There are two prices one has to consider- the phone and the monthly bill. The $99 will lure them in. But I bet the monthly cost will have them walking out.

The product launch needs the media coverage like last year- people waiting outside, that kind of thing. And if it can trounce Pre sales or something like that. It needs to repeat the frenzy of 3G and needs to sustain that throughout the next year. And the stock market will be less than forgiving initially if they even suspect that iPhone demand is down.

Well I didn't pre-order and it seems like I can't- AT&T is sold out and I can't pre-order one from Apple. I'm debating between taking part in the initial frenzy on the 19th or taking a more relaxed approach- hitting up the odd AT&T stores outside of NYC and maybe dropping by the Apple stores around 4-5pm and seeing what it's like. So far nobody is camping out in NYC to my knowledge...
 

traylorc

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There are two prices one has to consider- the phone and the monthly bill. The $99 will lure them in. But I bet the monthly cost will have them walking out.

The product launch needs the media coverage like last year- people waiting outside, that kind of thing. And if it can trounce Pre sales or something like that. It needs to repeat the frenzy of 3G and needs to sustain that throughout the next year. And the stock market will be less than forgiving initially if they even suspect that iPhone demand is down.

Well I didn't pre-order and it seems like I can't- AT&T is sold out and I can't pre-order one from Apple. I'm debating between taking part in the initial frenzy on the 19th or taking a more relaxed approach- hitting up the odd AT&T stores outside of NYC and maybe dropping by the Apple stores around 4-5pm and seeing what it's like. So far nobody is camping out in NYC to my knowledge...

I just believe there are some folks out there that didn't want to pay a premium for the iphone, and then pay a huge monthly bill. Some folks just have to be enticed, so if the $99 3G makes them feel like they are getting a deal they may bite. I'm coming over from Sprint where I was paying about $200 for a family plan with two phones. I have to admit, the ATT pricing I will pay for our two iphones is very comparable to what I was paying at sprint. But you never know....

IMHO I think Apple will have all the media showing film/pics of long lines of people waiting outside for the iphone. Folks seem very passionate about their iphones.
 

chobbs1

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it's already such a big seller that AT&T is changing their Upgrade policies! I guess AT&T has figured out that they wouldn't loose too much in revenue or that if they did not offer thiis change they would lose customers. Good new for Many!
 

traylorc

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it's already such a big seller that AT&T is changing their Upgrade policies! I guess AT&T has figured out that they wouldn't loose too much in revenue or that if they did not offer thiis change they would lose customers. Good new for Many!

I wouldn't be surprised if ATT had this planned all along. Think about it....

First you introduce the new model and offer the ability to pre-order their phone. Then you rely on forums like this to allow passionate iphone fans to whip up support for the impending launch. This will undoubtedly cause some folks to become upset who are not eliglble for an upgrade, but would upgrade in a heartbeat if given a chance.

A couple of days before launch, you release this "heartfelt" press release stating "we hear our fans and we just had to respond". All of the sudden the rules regarding eligibility are changed and ATT looks like a hero....building goodwill and additional 3Gs iphone revenues along the way.
 

thinkTwice

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IMHO I think Apple will have all the media showing film/pics of long lines of people waiting outside for the iphone. Folks seem very passionate about their iphones.

I predict smaller lines because of pre-order, the economy, increased competition, and an opinion out there that the 3GS is not really worth it for 3G owners.

I think I'll be one of those people in line...
Tomorrow I will scout out the different stores and see what's going on.
 

traylorc

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I predict smaller lines because of pre-order, the economy, increased competition, and an opinion out there that the 3GS is not really worth it for 3G owners.

I think I'll be one of those people in line...
Tomorrow I will scout out the different stores and see what's going on.

I'm curious how the economy will impact sales. On the one hand, the restricted net disposable income of consumers would lead you to believe that this iphone would see smaller lines. But on the other hand ATT managed to sell out of their initial allotment, and Apple appears to have done well with their pre-sell program. Heck, I'm not sure what to expect.

However, if there only 2-3 videos picked up by the national press showing people waiting in long lines at ATT and Apples stores....Apple will proclaim this the most successful launch in the history of mankind.
 

thinkTwice

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I'm curious how the economy will impact sales. On the one hand, the restricted net disposable income of consumers would lead you to believe that this iphone would see smaller lines. But on the other hand ATT managed to sell out of their initial allotment, and Apple appears to have done well with their pre-sell program. Heck, I'm not sure what to expect.

However, if there only 2-3 videos picked up by the national press showing people waiting in long lines at ATT and Apples stores....Apple will proclaim this the most successful launch in the history of mankind.

True, true- I'd be really curious to see how the economy has affected sales, but in this market smartphone sales are increasing, which doesn't make sense to me. So far, it's been quiet on the iPhone line waiting department. Nobody's camped out the 5th ave. store... yet. I've been to 2/3 NYC Apple stores and the Apple store workers who I talked to about waiting in line for the 3GS have one piece of advice for me- get here EARLY. I understand that, but I think they're trying to hype up the lines.
 

chobbs1

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Maybe smart phone sales are up because big txket items are down. No new cars or homes or boats. People are even foregoing vacations. But the phones are fantastic and cheap way to entertain ourselves.
 

traylorc

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Maybe smart phone sales are up because big txket items are down. No new cars or homes or boats. People are even foregoing vacations. But the phones are fantastic and cheap way to entertain ourselves.

Great point.

Perhaps mobile phones, particularly smart phones, have crossed the line from becoming a luxury to a necessity. If folks perceive something to be a necessity they will continue to purchase that service/product despite a downturn in the economy.
 

traylorc

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True, true- I'd be really curious to see how the economy has affected sales, but in this market smartphone sales are increasing, which doesn't make sense to me. So far, it's been quiet on the iPhone line waiting department. Nobody's camped out the 5th ave. store... yet. I've been to 2/3 NYC Apple stores and the Apple store workers who I talked to about waiting in line for the 3GS have one piece of advice for me- get here EARLY. I understand that, but I think they're trying to hype up the lines.

I wasn't around during the launch of the 3G, but did Apple & ATT allow folks to pre-order their iphone and/or allow folks to have them shipped to their homes? If not, that would definitely impact the number of folks waiting in line. If that is the case, if lines look smaller than in the past I'm sure Apple's PR department will point to the online pre-sold units as the reason for the smaller lines.
 

msm0511

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I wasn't around during the launch of the 3G, but did Apple & ATT allow folks to pre-order their iphone and/or allow folks to have them shipped to their homes? If not, that would definitely impact the number of folks waiting in line. If that is the case, if lines look smaller than in the past I'm sure Apple's PR department will point to the online pre-sold units as the reason for the smaller lines.
No this is the first time you can preorder
 

msm0511

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Off topic,but I remember when the 1st gen came out I worked in a mall that had an Apple store and I'd never seen anything like the crazy lines there.
 

John Scaro

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I'm trying to get someone in my family to give me $199 for my 3G and add them to my plan so I can get the 3Gs 32g for $299. I need my fix!!!!!!
 

traylorc

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No this is the first time you can preorder

If that is the case, then I don't think we can judge Apples' launch solely based on how many folks line up outside of Apple and/or ATT stores. I'm willing to bet most folks pre-ordered their phones in order to avoid waiting in long lines.

The real litmus test will be how many actual units were sold versus projected units sold. Of course, we would need to know Apples projections prior to the launch to in order to make an objective assessment on the outcome.
 

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