Will Pre software base out grow iPhone?
Ok, so we all know Apple and the iPhone have a huge lead in phone applications, but will it last?
Palm has states they are not limiting users to applications from the Palm store, while Apple is maintaining strict control over what they allow/appove. This is typical Apple.
Assuming that WebOS and the Pre get a decent foothold will they have a better opportunity to gain faster as far as number of applications available, and possible even better functionality?
- 06-12-2009, 10:19 PM #2
- 06-12-2009, 10:26 PM #3
It is possible but you have to remember. Openness can cause instability. Instability breeds Contemt. There are 50,000+ old PalmOS. Many were free, but you had to be VERY careful! Any one of those apps, including the expensive paid ones, could send your Treo or Tx into an absolute "Spiral of Death"! I know. I had a M500, T5, 700P, and a 755P.
Say what you will about Apple's "Reign of Terror" over the App Store, they have managed to keep the platform VERY stable.
- 06-13-2009, 12:20 AM #4
- 06-13-2009, 01:54 AM #5
All interesting thoughts. Is part if apples approvial process stability testing?
And remember Apple did not get there SDK out initially either. I think they may becwaiting for the release if the first major OS Patch.
Another thing about stability is that the the newer os's are better at fault isolation, so it may not be an issue in the end.
One more thought on stability. I think slot of the iPhone stability is from the lack of application staying resident in RAM after quitting. This keeps the available RAM at a somewhat fixed amount. If you have apps staying resident in the background (I.e. Multitasking) the RAM available is dynamic. When I had a Treo most of the problems I had is with programs that ran in the background.
- 06-13-2009, 08:15 AM #8
- 06-13-2009, 10:30 AM #9
It was okay for Apple not to have an SDK out in 2007 because no one had a unified app store, smartphones weren't as mainstream, and casual users weren't using as many apps (side loading was fairly opaque).
Now App Store has 50,000 apps, 1 billion downloads, and 40 million units for install base. That's why RIM, Nokia, Microsoft, and Palm are rushing out App Stores as well.
2009 isn't 2007, unfortunately, for Palm.
webOS using web standards is fairly genius, however, since it lowers dev barrier. Classics is smart as well. But like @Alli said, no wide SDK release yet, and strange handling of developer community doesn't help.
If devs fall in love with the webOS platform, we could see some great stuff. If enough are used to Cocoa Touch now, however, and 40,000,000 quickly grows towards 100,000,000 user base, the momentum will be hard to resist.
- 06-13-2009, 10:57 AM #10
One reason for staying with Palm was the application library. Since there was no central source, we never knew how many there were. We did know that we were dependent on many that we had.
Moving to Apple was traumatic because there were only web apps.
Many of those who were developing for Palm OS are now developing for the iPhone. Some of them may learn the new Palm system but not all of them will. There will certainly be those who will develop for the Palm to take advantage of the multi-tasking. Still not even a tie.
However, for Palm to overtake Apple, one has to assume that Apple stands still. Imagine writing for a few hundred thousand Pres while one could as easily write for tens of millions of iPhones. Imagine that enough developers will do that to make up a 50K lead.
This may be the best illustration ever of the "first mover advantage." I am afraid that Palm has "missed the Window."
- 06-13-2009, 11:30 AM #11
It will not happen, unless Apple goes bankrupt. There isn't just one reason, but actually several reasons why.
The first being the SDK that Apple provides. You have first time developers being able to create apps. Apple has made it an environment where a good idea can be more successful rather than only the companies with financial backing. TWISM is an excellent example of this.
The second being the ease. I can d/l from the phone or PC and then sync either or later on. People complain about having to use iTunes, but the truth of the matter is that it is the best solution out there in the mobile market.
Another being the device being better for the apps, especially gaming with the processing speed, ram and graphics card.
There are more, so mentioned above and some yet mentioned. Palm will need the biggest hat in the world to pull this trick out of it. In the end, it's just better for us consumers.
- 06-13-2009, 12:36 PM #12
- 06-13-2009, 12:54 PM #13
I don't think so, and not anytime soon. Apple has a 40 million unit headstart over Palm. And the iPod touch expands that base greatly.
Also, why pay all that money to wait for apps on the Palm? You really, really have to love WebOS to buy it now and to really believe in it to buy it and wait.
Palm has stated it will initially limit the supply of the Palm Pre in Q3. So if it ends up being easier to get an iPhone, Palm can lose sales this way, esp. with the 3GS and $99 3G.
If anything, Android is the one with potential to outgrow the iPhone. Multiple phones, multiple handsets. I say potential because it still has issues. Android has unlimited memory with its SD card, but you can't store apps on it, the G1 has about 74MB internal memory for apps. The next Android handset rumored to be released this summer will have around the same memory. Google have stated that storing apps on the SD card is a security issue, so if you want apps on the card, you have to "jailbreak" it. Background process managment sounds iffy- several users have complained that they think they "close" an app, only to have processes running in the background- which kills the battery quick. The solution is to close the app in a particular way or to download a 3rd party app to shut down the processes.
- 06-15-2009, 07:54 AM #15
- 06-15-2009, 11:45 AM #16
Most of those 50K apps are garbage. I'd say about 99 % are useless. Palm doesn't need to worry about catching up. It needs to worry about quality control. It can't beat apple in the mainstream sector so its best bet is to go after RIM and develop blackberry killers. It could also create a cross over device that targets "smart" consumers.
- 06-15-2009, 11:48 AM #17
- 06-15-2009, 12:30 PM #18
- 06-15-2009, 07:24 PM #19
- 06-15-2009, 08:33 PM #20
Originally Posted by whmurray
- 06-16-2009, 10:29 AM #22iPhone Intermediate
- 137 Posts
I don't disagree with your assessment that Palm should go after RIM and develop blackberry killers. However, that will not be an easy task.
- 06-16-2009, 10:46 AM #23
The Pre won't really have any chance until there is a GSM version. While some people will, the vast majority are not going to jump onto the Pre while it is CDMA only and with Sprint. A lot of the hard core are SIM swappers won't sign a contract just for the Pre, but would buy one to swap SIMs.
The Pre (and really all the other phones) also lack a compelling desktop client to manage the phone. iTunes does have some quirks on Windows but for the most part it's easy to use, works, and does the job. You just can't compare any other desktop software for the other smart phones out there too iTunes, none are even close. Getting apps couldn't be easier and the average person isn't going to want to go and look for apps all over the internet. They want one-stop-shopping.