Claim ? Just "doin the math". It's by no emans conjecture, it's simply numbers. Counting sales. Let's define the criteria:
We all agree that the iPhone is not intended for the business market, so we talking strictly consumer market. My complaint about the iPhone's criticisms has been that 99% of the target user base don't need or want those missing features. The iPhone is not being marketed to business users. Criticizing it because it doesn't have business "features" is inappropriate. It's never been proposed as such.
Here it says that there were 180 million cell phone users in 2004 and that 130 million will be retired in 2005 and that the rate of increase is about 9 million a year.
http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2006/3097/
So "doin the math", that's 130 + 9 + 9 or let's lets say 150 million phone sales in 2006.
http://www.palminfocenter.com/news/9165/npd-reports-smartphone-growth-spurt/
NPD also says that 6% of US sales are "smartphones"
"On a quarterly basis in 2006, smartphone sales have risen more than four percentage points to
more than 6 percent of new phones sold through October in the fourth quarter of 2006.
So, based upon total sales, 94% of people in the US decided they they don't need nor want smartphone features. With me so far ? No argument possible....these are the sales figures.
Now the largest seller in the NPD report is the Motorola Q which does not even have a touch screen, therefore it does not fit in the "Treo like" category. But heck, I'l let it go.
So we have unequivocally established that 94% of US phone users don't want these features. I'm quite happy to say "Ok, it's not 99% it's 94%.....but lets get back to the issue. The iPhone is not intended nor marketed to business users. Of those 9 million US smartphone purchases how many are consumers and how many are business users ? So lets do some math:
150 million phones - 9 million smart phones means 141 million unequivocally have decided they don't "need" business features in their phone. Now how many of those 9 million smartphone users should be placed in the business category and how many should be placed in the consumer category ? I'd argue that most of those 9 million are "business users". Let's however say that 5/6 buy their "Treos or whatever" because of a legitimate business need and the other 1/6 are just consumers. That's 1.5 million "consumer market" types buying Treos or equivalent.
let's do the math:
150 million phones sold.....7.5 million "business market types" using smartphones .... 1.5 million "consumer market" types using smartphones. Consumer market = 142.5 million
1.5 million / 142 million = 1.05% of "consumer market" types bought a smartphones. That means 98.95% of consumers decided
Reject my entire argument and you are still left with the cold hard fact that, based upon the data presented, 94% of
ALL US purchases have voted with their checkbooks that they do not want nor need smartphone features. This simply is not subject to interpretation. The potential iPhone customer is not a business user, so it takes no great stretch of logic to conclude that taking business users out of the remaining 6 percent easily boosts the base 94% figure up a few % points.
Argue that half of Treo / BB / equivalent whatever users base their purchase decision on personal rather than business needs (a tough argument to support that would be) and what have ya accomplished ?....geez that 99% is now a paltry 97%. I'm crushed ! How could I be that far off the mark ????
Give the new iPhone owners time to get over their euphoria, and about 3-4 months I think the shine may be off. Frankly alot of my casual (non-tech) friends use MMS. I know they would be disappointed with the lack of MMS as well as the lackluster camera in the iPhone. (dont get me wrong, the treo camera sucks horribly) They also have custom ringers, although i suspect apple will fix that soon. Granted they dont need the push email as my 700WX has, but they also would rather have a decently formatted mobile web page on 3G vs a full webpage that takes 50 secs to load on the iphone.
But you have to admit with the 2G iPhone comes out with 3G and retails for $300 in 6-8 months you Appletons are going to be pissed...