- 07-18-2007, 01:40 PM #951
I think next they gotta go for the mass market, the peeps who won't shell out $600. Same strategy that Palm used with the Lowrider.....less stuff, less features, lower price. The aim here is to post huge sales numbers.
Next I think they will go for a higher end device. This will coem last for the very reasons you mention. To be a success it's gotta blow away the glitz of WM and exced the simplicity of Palm OS while still maintaining the stability Apple is known for. This is a tall order.
- 07-18-2007, 01:41 PM #952
- 07-18-2007, 01:44 PM #953
This is a specious argument. Treos are Treos, and so are Blackberries.
Take the total number sold, and that gives you a picture.
This is not like comparing the Toyota Camry to all the cars sold be GM.
(the car analogy does not work).
iPhones are iPhones, Treos are Treos, and BB are BB - for general market measurement, it works jsut fine. Dividing up among models is not important at the macro level.
- 07-18-2007, 01:45 PM #954
- 07-18-2007, 01:49 PM #956
Now if we are changing the defn of 3rd party app, then that's a different dicussion.
local application =! web service.
And as for the most commonly used apps:
Those many people need day in and day out.
I think the iPhone will eventually have and SDK and stuff, but it will just take some time.
Jack, maybe you could do with more precision in your statements. Saying the market for Treo's are only 500 000 without saying which model, on which carrier, and then complaining about your statements being misinterpreted is just whining. I dont read mind. Write down what you mean, dont keep us guessing.
- 07-18-2007, 01:51 PM #958
- 07-18-2007, 01:57 PM #960
- 07-18-2007, 02:12 PM #961
-Palm does not break out sales by country.....so the claimed 2.5 million sales is not US only.....so the numbers can not be compared unless out of US sales are stripped.
-Palm makes several models on different OS's. Many people choose a WM Palm because it fits some standard issued bu Sargeant IT ..... the iPhone doesn't work with Exchange server, it is not intended for this market, so Palm's sales in this market must be culled in order for it to be compared.
-Palm makes units in several price ranges in order to address different markets . Apple intends to do the same thing. Next quarter when the iPhone-Nano comes out, they will have a low end device to compete with. Until then Palm's low end sales must be culled in order to be compared.
The model argument certainly is no red herring, it is simply reality. I mean it's easy to scream whoop whoop Apple got pwned but only when ya close ya eyes and see what ya wish happened instead of what is actually happened. It's like the refree at a WWF match declaring one guy won fair and square while he ignored the guy's manager hitting the loser over the head with a chair.
Apple has fired the first salvo.....they have placed one product in one market niche. To analyze their success, one can only look at their success in the targeted market area. Here's how I see your argument going when say BMW puts a car are the market to compete with the Dodge Viper.
"Well BMW sure had some success with their new "California Racer" vehicle, released only in the state which carries it's name, it sold 1,000,000 plus vehicles in the 1st week....that's more than any other dodge model."
"whaddya talking about....BMW got pwned. Dodge sold 50,000,000 vehicles last year.
"But 25,000,000 of those vehicles dodge sold were trucks"
"Well BMW doesn't sell trucks, they sell cars. How does one judge the impact of BMW's new model on the Viper market by comparing their sales with car + truck sales.
"Ah that's a red herring"
"Well what about the fact that the car is only currently being sold in California, the numbers you qu0te for dodge are all 50 states ?"
"Ah that's a red herring"
The point about Treo sales was made not to compare the two but to simply point out that the number of people who want a device that does what the Treo does is very small. Even if all Treo sales were in the US, 2.5 million is less than 1% of the US population. I don't see Apple getting hot and bothered by 1 % of the population. I think they have bigger things in mind.
- 07-18-2007, 02:18 PM #962
- 07-18-2007, 02:39 PM #964
- 07-18-2007, 02:40 PM #965
Autos/trucks etc. are transportation. Dividing up models is irrelvant at this time. Same with the samrtphones.
You say the iPhone Nano will be released next quarter (Q4; a story, by the way, that was retracted), and if those come out, I would lump those into iPhone sales as well.
Again, I'm not saying Apple will not do awesome in the market, I'm just saying you made an (wrong) assertion about the market for Treo's being only 500K, only to be clowned (or pwned) with the fact of 2.5M.
Most people would says "my bad" and move on, but you are argue irrelevant details and try to move the discussion away from your mistake.
- 07-18-2007, 02:48 PM #966
Now this is a bizarre idea, and one I never really expected.
BeyondTheTech 07-18-2007 16:20
Is the iPhone really multitasking?
Perhaps it's just the comparatively slow EDGE connection, but here are some scenarios I've noticed where the iPhone doesn't seem like it's multitasking...
1. I compose an email, then press Send. I see the "Sending..." progress bar trot along, and while that happens, I click Home, then iPod or Safari and watch a video or surf a website. When I click Home, then go back to my email, the progress bar seems to be nearly at the same position when I left it.
2. I launch Safari and it begins to load a web page. I click Home, then iPod and watch a video, or I simply press the Sleep button on the device. I go back into Safari and the progress bar across the URL also is nearly at the same position when I left it.
3. I launch Mail and it says, "Connecting..." and begins to download a slew of messages. I click Home and do other things for some time, then come back and, surprise, the Mail application is still churning away at downloading the new emails.
So, my obvious question is, is the iPhone truly multitasking when it comes to data services and networking, or does everything get suspended when I leave Mail and/or Safari?
Also, does anyone notice that Safari sometimes keeps the page it has previously loaded from the last time you were in there, and sometimes, it has to download the page from scratch again? I can't seem to get a consistent behavior, and would like Safari to just keep whatever I surfed for as long as I've been on that site.
JIver 07-18-2007 16:40
Yes I noticed this, I really hate it. I noticed this even when Im on a wifi connection. Hopefully its something that can be fixed with an update. Or if its intentional, why?
harlenm 07-18-2007 17:40
If I hit send on an email then go back to the home screen it sends the message.
Eric5273 07-18-2007 19:25
I've seent he same behavior with regard to the web browser. If I am using multiple tabs and I open a new tab and start loading a page, then switch back to the other tab, if I return to the newer tab 10 minutes later, the page still hasn't loaded and is exactly at the same spot where it was when I left the page. It would seem that the iPhone does not really multi-task and only does one item at a time. That's not really any different than my Treo 680 was, so it doesn't bother me that much.
Diversion 07-18-2007 21:11
Yeah, I honestly think the iPhone puts whatever application that's not on-screen on "Pause".. To use full CPU power on the application that you are in. This is bad and good in a lot of ways. I hope they atleast give certain applications the ability to resume their activity in the background.
I dont doubt the iPhone can multi-task, but it appears Apple choses not to use this feature. Now that I think of it this is quite consistent with their whole approach of style over substance. They appear to have a powerful device, when they are faking it all along.
- 07-18-2007, 05:07 PM #968
- 07-18-2007, 05:07 PM #969
- 07-18-2007, 05:16 PM #970
Carriers outside the US are not yet allowed to sell iPhones. Treos were sold outside the United States for the entire year. Not apples and apples.
The other major carriers are not selling iPhones. Inlcuding Sprint, Verizon and all over seas carriers in Treo sales and then comparing them to iPhone sales is not apples and apples.
Six models of Treo totaled 2.5 million sales. I break that down to an average of 400k each. 500k is bigger than 400k.
You want to compare apples and apples, you have to compare the iPhone with say Treo 650's sold in the last year on AT&T network. Anything else is a false and unfair comparison. So no I wouldn't used the "pwned", but then that's l33t talk and generally not used by people who engage in intelligent discourse and who accept from the getgo that apples versus fruit basket comparison are untenable.
But, yet gain, the point is still being ignored. I was not quoting the figures to discuss the relative sales figures between the two. I was quoting the numbers because I wanted to address the market size with regard to two points:
1. No "Treo like" device that I am aware of has significantly shattered the 500k barrier. The market for a new device is not that big. For Apple to come in with its very first model and break that barrier in a weekend is strikingly significant. I think that bodes well for all vendors as it pulled a lot of people who would otherwise not be using a smartphone into this category.
2. Listing the stuff that the iPhone doesn't do simply doesn't matter to most people, including Apple. Why ? Let's look at that market share again....yes that is "the point". How many Treos sold last year compared to the size of the markets they are sold in ? What is it 0.5 % ? I don't think Apple is getting as excited about the 0.5% as they are about various segments of the 99.5%.
Everything I do computing wise (hardware selection, software, protocols, etc) is based upon how it effects how I run AutoCAD. I will never own a Mac because Macs don't run AutoCAD. In its pursuit of additional market share in the PC world, I don't think Apple is worrying much about the 0.1 % of the population that runs AutoCAD.
What I buy is based upon that criteria. I don't judge other people's selections of their hardware because "that piece of crap won't run AutoCAD". Judging the iPhone because it won't do something that someone in this forum's audience wants is foolhardy.....our little group here is just too small for Apple to spend that much time on. Fine for a niche player like Palm....but Apple lives in a bigger world with large goals and farther horizons.
Here's a Treo user's response to the IPhone (read "actual user" not spec list reader):
Background: I have been using a Treo for over a year. I like the treo, though I donít love it. The browser is only barely usable, the keyboard is barely usable (one feature they desperately need is a switch to turn of key-repeat) but much of it is great. For some reason, however, my Treo likes to go back to ďTime SetĒ after every call, which Iím sure I could fix if I took the time to figure it out.
The iPhone is, however: the best PDA Iíve ever had, the best iPod Iíve ever had and (nearly) the best phone Iíve ever had. The more I use it the more I love it. Setting it all up, registering it and getting my new cell number; soup to nuts took under 10 minutes.
I wonít run through all the features (Apple does a good job on their site) but I will say that the on-board keyboard is far better than the physical keyboard offered on the Treo; and the self-correcting software is fantastic. If I mistype the word evetytjing (two typos) it offers the word everything - pressing space puts the right spelling in. Once you trust that it will get it right (which it does about 98% of the time in my experience, you can type very fast. The question of whether it is a problem not having a physical keyboard is more than answered: no problem.
The iPod features are better than on my 8Gig Nano and the sound is considerably better. Navigation is better, faster, easier. The camera is the best phone camera Iíve ever seen, as is the integration of camera and email.
Email is by far the best Iíve seen on a phone, with full graphics, links, etc. Truly impressive. I do wish they had more organization (storage folders, etc.) but I assume that will be in the next version, and it isnít a problem as I do all that on the desktop; on the iPhone I read and toss.
The only thing unarguable is the web experience on the iPhone is simply unequaled .... like comparing free reign / access at the Playboy Mansion to a 976 number. Yeah lemme see ...seeing things exactly as I see on my desktop, no crippled "mobile versions", never having to actually scroll ....or .... no flash. I'll go with no flash since the only significance of having it is I have to find the "skip intro" button.
The point is that, like it or not, the things that are important to me and you are not important to everyone. As jealous as I might be of the screen, the web, etc....music on a handheld to me is "unlistenable" and even though I use them rarely, the ability to use those programs I have is important to me. No iPhone for me.....but I don't expect everyone to have the same likes and dislikes as me.
The iPhone is aiming for 1% of the consumer market, while the Treo has 2.5% of the smartphone market. Different market, but you dont get that.
BTW, are you really claiming that no one smartphone model has sold more than 500 000 in one year? Is that with some unspoken proviso, or is that the whole claim?
- 07-18-2007, 05:29 PM #972
You asserted the "market for Treos" with no qualifiers. A person of "intelligent discourse" would acknowledge their mistake, not spin like a gyroscope.
Framing the argument, I could claim that on the June 29th, the Treo outsold the iPhone. Oh, did I forget to mention that I meant up to 5:59PM that day?
I don't think anyone doubt the iPhone will sell like crazy. That is not the point. If you approach something from the perspective of the "universe of one", then you skew the overall debate. Archie was a master of this.
From the macro-level, more time must pass to see the overall numbers in order to do fair comparison.
Your point #1 and #2 are your views, and that is fine. I'm really not debating those.
I'm sure the iPhone is wonderful, and I think it's cool. I'm sure lots of people are happy.
Will they make thier forecasts? We will see. I am really curious. I think this holiday season will be very telling.
- 07-18-2007, 05:46 PM #973
-More attempts to divert attention from the point with unrelated sarcastic comment
-Color me surprised
Answer the question.
a) Sales in one country versus worldwide sales
b) Sales on one carrier sales versus sales on all carriers
c) Sales of one model versus sales of all models
anything but an irrelevant comparison ?
How does such a comparison in anyway approach a fair and balanced, apples and apples look at the impact ? Or are we using the Fox News Network's interpretation of "fair and balanced".
You want to make an "apples and apples" Treo vs iPhone comparison, then tell me how many Treos were activated on AT &T this year in the United States.
But, if habit holds, you won't answer the question. We will get yet another sarcastic comment that has nothing to do with the question or we'll get another apples versus fruit basket comparison. "Color me surprised".
- 07-18-2007, 06:12 PM #975