N95 and iPhone: a smartphone revolution?

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
I'm mobile now and don't have time to check, but from memory didn't you suggest 15-20% of all potential iPod buyers would switch to Zune but then agreed with my suggestion of 15-20% of HD iPod buyers when I suggested it?! Also those NPD figures are rather dodgy (no Apple Store purchases for instance).
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
I'm mobile now and don't have time to check, but from memory didn't you suggest 15-20% of all potential iPod buyers would switch to Zune but then agreed with my suggestion of 15-20% of HD iPod buyers when I suggested it?! Also those NPD figures are rather dodgy (no Apple Store purchases for instance).

Yes, thats how it went down, but its the end result which matters :D

Surur
 
Hey Surur and Marcol; great discussion you both have here. I played with the N95 quite a bit at CES, and have one at my doorstep today as a matter of fact :). But before the device, I'll speak on the topic as it was started.

The N95 and iPhone probably don't represent a major shift in terms of smartphone adoption as much as it does smartphone mindshare towards the "normal" consumer. Whereas folks in various means know that a phone can do a lot, to have ads and buzz about it constantly coming at you does a bit better than just make you want something more than a RAZR, you start to expect that the $0 phone does do a bit of what the iPhone and N95 do. If you will, the N95 and iPhone are like the car-marker's halo models. Not far enough out of reach to get and touch one (country issues aside), but enough to make you wonder what else could be had if your budget wasn't as high and you didn't need all those features. Its a plant, and probably a successful one. Ironically, RIM, WM, and Palm made the soil fetrile for this kind of marketing.

As a device, the N95 is no larger than a Treo 650 when closed., It is however, not ungainly when opened. The directional butttons are weird, as Surur pointed out, but nothing that wouldnt take some time to get used to like most other phones we haven't "mind-mapped." The kicker for both will be battery life and device stability. Right now, the N95 fails on the first (under hard usage) and is OK on the second. Because, as this discsussion and AAS's pointed out, most will not use all of the features all of the time; just like with the Treo 680, the battery life will be fine for most - and the hardcore users like carrying a brick battery anyways so they'll be fine ;)

The iPhone will have a slightly harder road to climb in the battery end as users who will be used to swapping phone batteries will have an issue when they cannot listen to music any more. However, I am sure that there will be tie in to work adn play and accessories that make the battery life not seem "as bad" will come quicly - especailly when folks start panting about it.

I am with Surur in saying that the N95 (and similar devices) will not improve teh bottom line of ANY smartphone making company. While the high margins are great for headlines, they suck because they are low volume. Nokia wants to make funds on the mid-range models, and to do that they need to get people in the stores. The N95 will do that to those who window shop. It might even get a few extra N95s sold after the buzz period (give it another month) wears off. That being said, its a solid enough product at the right time. I just wish the US had its wireless act together so that phones like the N95 wouldnt cost my kidney and a tank of gas (and I own a Civic, sheeesh).

Great discussion though. Glad I could read and contribute (I hope).
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
Antoinne, you are always welcome in this two horse race :) There is no doubt the N 95 is an interesting device, but I believe the question is whether its a break-out device, and I, like you, just dont feel it has that "feel" to it. Its not "hot" like the Razr was, or like the LG Shine is now. It seems more a push by Nokia, rather than real consumer demand.

The IPhone is of course "hot" but I believe practical issues will scupper its success.

One can see the two devices are qualitatively very different, but in both cases do not appear to be mass market devices.

Surur
 

naftalim

Member
Nov 30, 2004
10
0
0
Visit site
Interesting discussion.

You are not considering the laziness factor. Most people do not want to get into complex interaction with their technology. For example, take a look at our community here which would be hardcore. I would wager that only about 5% or less of this community flash their own custom ROMS.

I would also bet that another small percentage uses most of the functionality of their Treos (Bluetooth DUN, Voice Command on the WM phones etc) Its the same with PCs. I have been using one for 27 years, consider myself a SuperUser, and I probably only use 20-30% of its capabilities. So, the vast majority of consumers will not want to get into the complexities of a high end PDA, especially when the pricing is at or higher than a PC. (The Nokia N95 costs $400 more than my Turion Dual Core Media Center Compaq Laptop)

If these new end phones have the ease of use of the iPOD at a reasonable price point, watch out!
 
I wouldn't say that the N95 doesn't have that feel. It does. As does my 8GB toting Treo 680 (seriously, I said in another thread how Palm could take that SDHC non-mention and parlay that into something very nice and iPhone defeating). But they aren't the same class of device. The N95 is probably better in a BMW versus Merc kinda sense (Bangle butt(ons) and all). But like the Merc in the late 80s early 90s, it had that cachet about it that made people get one despite teh heaviness and flaws.

The iPhone will have something going for it that Nokia, more specifically Symbian, WM, and Linux, and to a much lesser degree Garnet have not been able to - make the experience of using the device a compelling reason to buy it. To this day, no one gets it; Apple has and if the software holds up (and will be hacked to make sure that it stays on its toes), Apple will have laid a golden egg in the sense of a product that works, not just one that solves a problem (Treos, BBs) or is feature laden (WM, Linux), or has unrealized potential (Symbian).

I don't think that the iPhone can make it down market easily though. OSX would lose a lot fo money for them if it did. Nokia has that advantage, and if they can push other sides of the mobile pie to do things right (QR codes, mapping, web integration, etc.), there's a chance that despite the iPhone mindshare, the Nokia marketshare will do the better talking in the short and long run.
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
The N95 and iPhone probably don't represent a major shift in terms of smartphone adoption as much as it does smartphone mindshare towards the "normal" consumer. Whereas folks in various means know that a phone can do a lot, to have ads and buzz about it constantly coming at you does a bit better than just make you want something more than a RAZR, you start to expect that the $0 phone does do a bit of what the iPhone and N95 do. If you will, the N95 and iPhone are like the car-marker's halo models. Not far enough out of reach to get and touch one (country issues aside), but enough to make you wonder what else could be had if your budget wasn't as high and you didn't need all those features. Its a plant, and probably a successful one. Ironically, RIM, WM, and Palm made the soil fetrile for this kind of marketing.
Hi Antoine,

That's an interesting perspective and probably quite true of the US. Consider though that you can get the N95 for free in the UK now if you sign a moderately expensive contract with any UK carrier (e.g. ?50 pcm with Vodafone, ?45 pcm with T-Mobile). Experience tells us it will certainly be free on cheaper contracts quite soon. It is a "$0 phone"!
 
Hi Antoine,

That's an interesting perspective and probably quite true of the US. Consider though that you can get the N95 for free in the UK now if you sign a moderately expensive contract with any UK carrier (e.g. ?50 pcm with Vodafone, ?45 pcm with T-Mobile). Experience tells us it will certainly be free on cheaper contracts quite soon. It is a "$0 phone"!

Hey there;
Yes, unfortunately, I can only speak in parts about the Euro market as I am not there. In the US, the consumer ball game is different.

My N95 review unit just came in. Honestly speaking, My 680 doesn't look bad next to it. It does look ok in its copper color though. I think that if it were the grey one it would look a bit more dated. You can definitely see the different design phisolophies at play.

What will be the kicker is when I get it charged and start playing with it in the morning, I will probably be a lot more floored than I am right now.

One of the aspects that plays into me looking at any device is to get the opinions of people who might have other phones. I saw a lot of Chocloates on the Metro today and am thinking that I might ask for their opinion of the N95 if I see a few folks in the coming days (that will not try and run off with it). It's smaller than the 680 (by a good deal), lighter (by a lot with the battery and no mem-card or SIM), and just has that "feel" about it. Its as nice as my CES memories let me be. And if that impression is anything like what others who aren't into smartphones would do, it will change the game, not so much from a device standpoint, but from a mindshare one.
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Another day another iPhone poll:

ChangeWave Research conducted a study of tech-savvy professionals which points to high demand for the device, with about one in 10 respondents (or 9 percent) saying they are likely to purchase the iPhone once it becomes available. Another 7 percent said they will likely purchase the device as a gift for someone else. "That's huge," ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith said. "This is going to be a monster." The survey points to a far faster adoption rate than the industry average for consumer electronics products, and Smith suspects that Apple will exceed its sales goals if the iPhone's performance lives up to consumer expectations.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/04/25/survey.monster.iphone/
 
Another day another iPhone poll:

ChangeWave Research conducted a study of tech-savvy professionals which points to high demand for the device, with about one in 10 respondents (or 9 percent) saying they are likely to purchase the iPhone once it becomes available. Another 7 percent said they will likely purchase the device as a gift for someone else. "That's huge," ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith said. "This is going to be a monster." The survey points to a far faster adoption rate than the industry average for consumer electronics products, and Smith suspects that Apple will exceed its sales goals if the iPhone's performance lives up to consumer expectations.

http://www.macnn.com/articles/07/04/25/survey.monster.iphone/

I noticed that the other day as well too. Mindshare is a funky thing. Of most of those polled, I wonder how many of them are "tech infulencers" such as we who visit here, versus "tech followed" which is the meat of the consumer market. The iPhone has enough of a cachet being an Apple item, but I wonder if that is enough to get it from being being a totally techie item, just because of what it can do, not necessarly becuase of what it is.
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
Steve Ballmer's prediction for iPhone marketshare:

"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."


Ok, let's leave aside that it's just plain odd to compare the percentage of the devices he'd prefer to see have Microsoft software with a prediction of what iPhone might actually get. He predicts 2 or 3% of 1.3 billion - I presume he means this as the annual total for mobile phone sales, although Gartner's estimate for 2006 has the number closer to 1.0 billion:


Going with his figures, that would be 26-39 million iPhones per year. Although he doesn't specify when he thinks this might happen, those are really pretty big numbers. For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006:


So Steve's predicting that the iPhone will outsell all WM devices by 3 to 1? :eek:

Also of note:

Q: When can we look forward to a Zune phone?

A: It's not a concept you'll ever get from us. We're in the Windows Mobile business. We wouldn't define our phone experience just by music. A phone is really a general purpose device. You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, e-mail, whatever your preference is. The phone really is kind of a general purpose device that we need to have clean and easy to use.
 
AFter my "play" with teh N95 this weekend, I am more convinced that the Iphone, like the N95, is not at all meant as a smartphone in the sense of a Treo. I prefer my Treo for email and communicating, I prefer the N95 for being a phone ;). I am pretty sure that the iPhone will be much more the latter than the former.

Interesting numbers marcol; The iPhone will outsell most WM individual units pretty easily. Heck the N95 is probably doing so by itself now. The question is whther WM will simplify itsself to be more phone like, thereby making it attractive to the non-techie, music-loving, miltimeida liking (but won't want to fiddle and tweak) kind. Right now, the iPhone (and the N95) do that pretty darn well.
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
The question is whther WM will simplify itsself to be more phone like, thereby making it attractive to the non-techie, music-loving, miltimeida liking (but won't want to fiddle and tweak) kind.
I guess if Steve Ballmer is to get anything like his wish of "our software in 60% or 70% or 80%" of phones they need to do something. The proportion of smartphones with WM (or its predecessors) has essentially halved in the last three years. Reading Robbie Bach's comments back in January indicated that the Zune might evolve into a phone:

'Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft`s entertainment and devices division, said it too is considering a mobile phone integrated with its Zune digital music player, but launching such a device is not at top of its priority list.

"It`s probably on the table of things for us to look at, but not the number one thing we are focused on," said Bach, speaking to analysts at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas."'​

Ballmer's comments pretty much seem to rule that out though and (taken at face value) say it's WM all the way for Microsoft. I guess there may still be some chance that they'll do phone hardware as well as software, but with WM rather than the Zune OS. It will be very interesting to see what happens to WM over the next couple of years or so.
 

archie

Well-known member
Oct 1, 2003
532
0
0
Visit site
marcol said:
Such certainty! While we're at the numbers prediction game (to be revisited later of course), care to have have a stab at predicting iPhone sales?

Here are my guesses. I think punters willl like the N95 much more than the other Nokia N series phones (which comprise 80%+ of Nokia's smartphone sales). Nokia sold 11 million smartphones Q4 2006 and I reckon mostly on the back of N95 that will be up to 20 million Q4 this year. iPhone: Apple said 10 million by end of 2008. That's way below what's suggested by the HarrisInteractive poll (just for the US). I'll go with 20 million for iPhone too (total by end of 2008; a lot will depend on carriers deals and pricing outside of the US). That would still leave Nokia as the biggest fish in the pond, but almost certainly give Apple second place.

No WAY! I can now see that you are very excited by this device, but its not really a breakout device. Nokia will continue its 50% YoY growth, leading to smartphone sales of about 15 million in Q2 and 16.5 million in Q4, possibly less if the economy has a downturn. The IPhone will sell less than 3 million over the last 6 months of 2007, and much less than 4 million in 2008, due to strong competition from other phone OEM's and satisfied demand from early adopters.

Surur

Antoine of MMM said:
AFter my "play" with teh N95 this weekend, I am more convinced that the Iphone, like the N95, is not at all meant as a smartphone in the sense of a Treo. I prefer my Treo for email and communicating, I prefer the N95 for being a phone . I am pretty sure that the iPhone will be much more the latter than the former.
The continual def, dumb & blind comments just suck any motivation to correct all of the, ummmm.... "misunderstandings" that people here have in their view of the iPhone.

I too would like to go on record in predicting sales of the iPhone. I predict 6.5 million the first 6 months and 14.75 million by 2008.
 

oalvarez

Well-known member
Apr 25, 2004
825
0
0
Visit site
N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

oh well, one less device for me to worry about
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
The continual def, dumb & blind comments just suck any motivation to correct all of the, ummmm.... "misunderstandings" that people here have in their view of the iPhone.

Archie, you are back!!! I Missed you so <3 <3

N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

oh well, one less device for me to worry about

This describes the IPhone too. I thought you were a fan?

Surur
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.

oh well, one less device for me to worry about
Sure, me too. There's precisely no way I'd get a device that relies on a 12 button keypad for text entry. That's not the point I was trying to discuss in starting this thread though. There're plenty of people who are happy enough with this form of text entry to use it every day (I'd guess >95% of phones have no QWERTY and no touchscreen). People who want a QWERTY keyboard aren't normal :)
 

marcol

Well-known member
Aug 31, 2005
762
0
0
Visit site
For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006:
A quick correction to 'For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006'. That should be 'smart mobile device (PDA plus smartphone) market'. Windows mobile actually has a much smaller fraction of the market if just smartphones are counted, for instance 4.6% in Q4 2006:

Symbian 14.7m 72.5%
Linux 3.4m 16.9%
Microsoft 0.9m 4.6%
RIM 0.8m 3.8%
PalmSource 0.4m 2.0%

Total 20.2m 100.0%

http://www.symbian.com/about/fastfacts/fastfacts.html#_ftn1
 

surur

Well-known member
Aug 6, 2005
1,412
0
0
Visit site
A quick correction to 'For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006'. That should be 'smart mobile device (PDA plus smartphone) market'. Windows mobile actually has a much smaller fraction of the market if just smartphones are counted, for instance 4.6% in Q4 2006:

Symbian 14.7m 72.5%
Linux 3.4m 16.9%
Microsoft 0.9m 4.6%
RIM 0.8m 3.8%
PalmSource 0.4m 2.0%

Total 20.2m 100.0%

http://www.symbian.com/about/fastfacts/fastfacts.html#_ftn1

Sorry, but that number is pretty suspect. That is basically saying world wide, for 3 months including Christmas last year, only 900 000 WM smartphones were sold. Does that number sound believable? WM are doing 10-12 million devices per year. By that numbers around 2 million PDA's were sold. Does that sound believable also, considering what we know of the state of the PDA vs Smartphone industry?

Much more likely is that Symbian is spinning the numbers, and relying on the Gartner-like definition of Smartphone (phone-centric, no touch screen).

In fact, here is a link to the definition Canalys uses.

Smart phone: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for voice, offers full, configurable two-way data synchronisation, and OS-based applications can be added without restriction. Example: Sony Ericsson P900.

Handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, no integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: palmOne Tungsten T3.

Wireless handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: O2 xda II.
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2004/r2004071.htm

Marcol, I expected better insight into the numbers from you.

Surur
 

Trending Posts

Members online

Forum statistics

Threads
260,018
Messages
1,765,333
Members
441,221
Latest member
CØR