I read a couple of things over the weekend that started me thinking. Firstly this piece by Steve Litchfield over at AAS:
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/5176_The_Nokia_N95_and_smartphones_.php
in which he notes the spectacular presence of the Nokia N95 advertising on UK high streets:
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=1209
It contains some truly amazing stats:
17% of American adults are interested in buying it and 9% of those (more than 1.5% of the total) say they will buy at launch! I'm not sure how many American adults there are, but for the sake of the argument let's say 200 million. Extrapolating: 34 million Americans say they're interested in buying the iPhone and more than 3 million say they will buy at launch. Those numbers sound just huge to me! Compare that with the global sales figures for smart devices (smartphones and PDAs) Q4 2006:
Nokia 11.1 million
RIM 1.8 million
Motorola 1.5 million
Palm 1.2 million
Sony Ericsson 1.1 million
Others 5.4 million
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm
OK, it's only right to be cautious drawing conclusions from the way one phone is advertised and a single poll about another, but it does seem to me that there is every chance that we'll look back on 2007 as the year that two devices, the Nokia N95 and Apple iPhone, finally took smartphones mass market.
Thoughts? Anyone care to have a stab at how the table above will look Q4 2007, Q4 2008? I wonder what this one will look like too:
Symbian: Q4 2006 67%
Windows Mobile: Q4 2006 14%
RIM: Q4 2006 7%
Linux Q4 2006 6%
ACCESS/Palm OS: Q4 2006 5%
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm
http://www.allaboutsymbian.com/news/item/5176_The_Nokia_N95_and_smartphones_.php
in which he notes the spectacular presence of the Nokia N95 advertising on UK high streets:
'If this isn't the smartphone going mass market then I don't know what is. It's completely true that 99% of people signing up for the Nokia N95 at (for example) ?50 buy price plus a 18 month contract at ?35 a month are expecting an extremely high-end, converged phone and it's true that 90% of them probably won't have heard of Symbian OS or even S60, but with this level of market awareness I'm guessing it probably doesn't matter at this stage - the interest and the sales figures will bring their own inertia.
If you'd said 3 years ago that the flagship Symbian OS smartphone would be the object of mass market, High Street adulation on this scale, noone would have believed you...'
Second up was this poll by HarrisInteractive:If you'd said 3 years ago that the flagship Symbian OS smartphone would be the object of mass market, High Street adulation on this scale, noone would have believed you...'
http://www.harrisinteractive.com/news/allnewsbydate.asp?NewsID=1209
It contains some truly amazing stats:
'Harris Interactive? recently took a quick pulse of American adults to determine how strong the buzz really is. Although iPhone is not yet a household word, 47 percent of respondents were aware of the product and a full 17 percent expressed interest in purchasing it, which makes for a pretty loud buzz from consumers for a product that isn’t yet available.'
'Perhaps a more interesting question to ask is when U.S. adults would buy this product. Of those expressing interest to purchase, nine percent say they would buy at product launch and another eight percent would buy before their current wireless service contract expired. About 17 percent say they would wait for their current wireless contract to expire before purchasing and 25 percent would purchase it - when their existing wireless carrier offers the iPhone. Finally, a full 40 percent of buyers intend to wait for the price to come down.'
'Perhaps a more interesting question to ask is when U.S. adults would buy this product. Of those expressing interest to purchase, nine percent say they would buy at product launch and another eight percent would buy before their current wireless service contract expired. About 17 percent say they would wait for their current wireless contract to expire before purchasing and 25 percent would purchase it - when their existing wireless carrier offers the iPhone. Finally, a full 40 percent of buyers intend to wait for the price to come down.'
17% of American adults are interested in buying it and 9% of those (more than 1.5% of the total) say they will buy at launch! I'm not sure how many American adults there are, but for the sake of the argument let's say 200 million. Extrapolating: 34 million Americans say they're interested in buying the iPhone and more than 3 million say they will buy at launch. Those numbers sound just huge to me! Compare that with the global sales figures for smart devices (smartphones and PDAs) Q4 2006:
Nokia 11.1 million
RIM 1.8 million
Motorola 1.5 million
Palm 1.2 million
Sony Ericsson 1.1 million
Others 5.4 million
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm
OK, it's only right to be cautious drawing conclusions from the way one phone is advertised and a single poll about another, but it does seem to me that there is every chance that we'll look back on 2007 as the year that two devices, the Nokia N95 and Apple iPhone, finally took smartphones mass market.
Thoughts? Anyone care to have a stab at how the table above will look Q4 2007, Q4 2008? I wonder what this one will look like too:
Symbian: Q4 2006 67%
Windows Mobile: Q4 2006 14%
RIM: Q4 2006 7%
Linux Q4 2006 6%
ACCESS/Palm OS: Q4 2006 5%
http://www.canalys.com/pr/2007/r2007024.htm