- 04-23-2007, 05:56 PM #26
I wouldn't say that the N95 doesn't have that feel. It does. As does my 8GB toting Treo 680 (seriously, I said in another thread how Palm could take that SDHC non-mention and parlay that into something very nice and iPhone defeating). But they aren't the same class of device. The N95 is probably better in a BMW versus Merc kinda sense (Bangle butt(ons) and all). But like the Merc in the late 80s early 90s, it had that cachet about it that made people get one despite teh heaviness and flaws.
The iPhone will have something going for it that Nokia, more specifically Symbian, WM, and Linux, and to a much lesser degree Garnet have not been able to - make the experience of using the device a compelling reason to buy it. To this day, no one gets it; Apple has and if the software holds up (and will be hacked to make sure that it stays on its toes), Apple will have laid a golden egg in the sense of a product that works, not just one that solves a problem (Treos, BBs) or is feature laden (WM, Linux), or has unrealized potential (Symbian).
I don't think that the iPhone can make it down market easily though. OSX would lose a lot fo money for them if it did. Nokia has that advantage, and if they can push other sides of the mobile pie to do things right (QR codes, mapping, web integration, etc.), there's a chance that despite the iPhone mindshare, the Nokia marketshare will do the better talking in the short and long run.
That's an interesting perspective and probably quite true of the US. Consider though that you can get the N95 for free in the UK now if you sign a moderately expensive contract with any UK carrier (e.g. £50 pcm with Vodafone, £45 pcm with T-Mobile). Experience tells us it will certainly be free on cheaper contracts quite soon. It is a "$0 phone"!
- 04-24-2007, 09:37 PM #28
Yes, unfortunately, I can only speak in parts about the Euro market as I am not there. In the US, the consumer ball game is different.
My N95 review unit just came in. Honestly speaking, My 680 doesn't look bad next to it. It does look ok in its copper color though. I think that if it were the grey one it would look a bit more dated. You can definitely see the different design phisolophies at play.
What will be the kicker is when I get it charged and start playing with it in the morning, I will probably be a lot more floored than I am right now.
One of the aspects that plays into me looking at any device is to get the opinions of people who might have other phones. I saw a lot of Chocloates on the Metro today and am thinking that I might ask for their opinion of the N95 if I see a few folks in the coming days (that will not try and run off with it). It's smaller than the 680 (by a good deal), lighter (by a lot with the battery and no mem-card or SIM), and just has that "feel" about it. Its as nice as my CES memories let me be. And if that impression is anything like what others who aren't into smartphones would do, it will change the game, not so much from a device standpoint, but from a mindshare one.
Another day another iPhone poll:
ChangeWave Research conducted a study of tech-savvy professionals which points to high demand for the device, with about one in 10 respondents (or 9 percent) saying they are likely to purchase the iPhone once it becomes available. Another 7 percent said they will likely purchase the device as a gift for someone else. "That's huge," ChangeWave founder Tobin Smith said. "This is going to be a monster." The survey points to a far faster adoption rate than the industry average for consumer electronics products, and Smith suspects that Apple will exceed its sales goals if the iPhone's performance lives up to consumer expectations.
- 04-25-2007, 04:03 PM #30
Steve Ballmer's prediction for iPhone marketshare:
"There's no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant market share. No chance. It's a $500 subsidized item. They may make a lot of money. But if you actually take a look at the 1.3 billion phones that get sold, I'd prefer to have our software in 60% or 70% or 80% of them, than I would to have 2% or 3%, which is what Apple might get."
Ok, let's leave aside that it's just plain odd to compare the percentage of the devices he'd prefer to see have Microsoft software with a prediction of what iPhone might actually get. He predicts 2 or 3% of 1.3 billion - I presume he means this as the annual total for mobile phone sales, although Gartner's estimate for 2006 has the number closer to 1.0 billion:
Going with his figures, that would be 26-39 million iPhones per year. Although he doesn't specify when he thinks this might happen, those are really pretty big numbers. For comparison, Windows Mobile had 12-15% of the 80 million device smartphone market in 2006:
So Steve's predicting that the iPhone will outsell all WM devices by 3 to 1?
Also of note:
Q: When can we look forward to a Zune phone?
A: It's not a concept you'll ever get from us. We're in the Windows Mobile business. We wouldn't define our phone experience just by music. A phone is really a general purpose device. You want to make telephone calls, you want to get and receive messages, text, e-mail, whatever your preference is. The phone really is kind of a general purpose device that we need to have clean and easy to use.
- 04-30-2007, 03:44 PM #32
AFter my "play" with teh N95 this weekend, I am more convinced that the Iphone, like the N95, is not at all meant as a smartphone in the sense of a Treo. I prefer my Treo for email and communicating, I prefer the N95 for being a phone . I am pretty sure that the iPhone will be much more the latter than the former.
Interesting numbers marcol; The iPhone will outsell most WM individual units pretty easily. Heck the N95 is probably doing so by itself now. The question is whther WM will simplify itsself to be more phone like, thereby making it attractive to the non-techie, music-loving, miltimeida liking (but won't want to fiddle and tweak) kind. Right now, the iPhone (and the N95) do that pretty darn well.
'Robbie Bach, president of Microsoft`s entertainment and devices division, said it too is considering a mobile phone integrated with its Zune digital music player, but launching such a device is not at top of its priority list.
"It`s probably on the table of things for us to look at, but not the number one thing we are focused on," said Bach, speaking to analysts at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas."'
Ballmer's comments pretty much seem to rule that out though and (taken at face value) say it's WM all the way for Microsoft. I guess there may still be some chance that they'll do phone hardware as well as software, but with WM rather than the Zune OS. It will be very interesting to see what happens to WM over the next couple of years or so.
- 04-30-2007, 07:40 PM #34Originally Posted by Antoine of MMM
I too would like to go on record in predicting sales of the iPhone. I predict 6.5 million the first 6 months and 14.75 million by 2008.
- 04-30-2007, 08:07 PM #35
N95? $800 and no keyboard? yet another device that misses the mark. clumsy, poor battery life, and no keyboard. wait, let me guess, it has a super camera, lets you listen to music and watch videos, and has wi-fi when you're hanging out at your local starbucks.
oh well, one less device for me to worry about
- 05-01-2007, 01:23 AM #36
Symbian 14.7m 72.5%
Linux 3.4m 16.9%
Microsoft 0.9m 4.6%
RIM 0.8m 3.8%
PalmSource 0.4m 2.0%
Total 20.2m 100.0%
- 05-01-2007, 05:45 AM #39
- 05-01-2007, 05:59 AM #40
Much more likely is that Symbian is spinning the numbers, and relying on the Gartner-like definition of Smartphone (phone-centric, no touch screen).
In fact, here is a link to the definition Canalys uses.
Smart phone: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for voice, offers full, configurable two-way data synchronisation, and OS-based applications can be added without restriction. Example: Sony Ericsson P900.
Handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, no integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: palmOne Tungsten T3.
Wireless handheld: pocket-sized device positioned primarily for data, integrated wireless WAN (GSM, GPRS or 3G) capability. Example: O2 xda II.
Marcol, I expected better insight into the numbers from you.
- 05-01-2007, 06:22 AM #41
Using those canalys numbers, which put PalmOS Treo's shipped at 400 000, add in palm's sellthrough numbers of 524 000 for the same period, and we can see about 125 000 WM Treo's were sold in Q4 2006, about 25% of Palm's sales.
Also, using those same numbers which Symbian so kindly provided, we can see the Wm Smartphone segment has shown high YoY growth (125%), much higher than the mature Symbian segment in fact, and with breakout devices like the Samsung Blackjack and the T-Mobile Dash doing pretty well we can expect a significant boost in those numbers for Q1 2007.
Fair comment. Canalys are splitting what most of us would call 'smartphones' into 'smartphones' and 'wireless handhelds' and:
Smart mobile devices = smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs
I suspect (but don't know for sure) that you're right and Symbian just took the smartphone part of the equation and hence Microsoft ended up with just 4.6%. So (probably) for Q4 2006 Microsoft had:
14% of smartphones + wireless handhelds + PDAs
4.6% of smartphones (excl. what canalys define as 'wireless handhelds')
without paying for the report it's impossible to say exactly how the WM devices split between 'smartphones', 'wireless handhelds' and PDAs but I do suspect that Microsoft's OS is on a comparatively large proportion of PDAs (more than Symbian is) so Microsoft's share of the smartphone (as you and I would define the term) market is less than 14% but more than 4.7%.
- 05-01-2007, 07:05 AM #44
Surur, i basically have grown to hate big and bulky treos and anything with a slide out keyboard, but i think you knew that. i am a fan of slim and thin.
- 05-01-2007, 07:15 AM #45
The WM market is currently undergoing the same transition, but by using two different OS's. WM Standard phones have always been a smaller segment of the WM market, but as the devices filter into the general consumer market these phone-like devices have grown at a much faster rate than the WM market itself. WM by itself does about 40% YoY, while the smartphone segment is growing much faster. If you think of hit WM devices these days with mass market appeal, we are much more likely to think of the Q, Dash and Blackjack than for example the HTC TyTn or M700. This is because these devices are a lot smaller, cheaper and more pocketable.
What you fail to recognize is that the Nokia N95 falls into the Tytn range of devices, not the mass market Nokia Symbian devices, and will therefore not have the huge success you anticipate.
- 05-01-2007, 07:18 AM #46
Made by Nokia
No stylus is required
Significantly smaller than the TyTN
Significantly lighter than TyTN
Emphasis on consumer features like photos, video and music
Rapidly adopted by many carriers
Free on a contract early in its life-cycle
You may recall that I owned a TyTN variant briefly. I was happy enough with most aspects of the OS (some grumbles about the UI, but no deal breakers), but the device was poorly made. The slider was poor, the d-pad was poor, the keyboard was poor, and the Wifi was poor. I truly hope there are never any more phones that are like it in those respects.
- 05-01-2007, 08:10 AM #48
To get a Nokia N95 on Vodafone for free you need to pay £825 in total monthly charges over 18 months. That does not even include a data plan. To get it free on t-mobile you have to pay £900 over 18 months, also without a data plan.
Unless the people who buy it cant multiply, this moves it out of the mass market.
Anyway, I'm not suggesting that the N95 or the iPhone will suddenly become the phones of choice for everybody, that they'll saturate the whole market including the cheapest contracts and pay-as-you-go. But the whole market (globally) is a billion phones a year and smartphones are currently about 8% of this (depending on whose numbers you read). I'm arguing that there's plenty of room at the top for some expansion and that the N95 and the iPhone are well placed to exploit that. In the end of course that's just a guess based on the buzz that both have created (see my first post in this thread) and my feelings about the two devices (I think Nokia and Apple got some design decisions right and they'll have broader appeal than previous smartphones).
- 05-01-2007, 09:15 AM #50