- 05-16-2007, 08:47 AM #51
The (apparent) wide disparity between those who have Ipods vs the whole population must say something of the penetration of Ipod's in Europe, ie. not that high.
Ive noticed an interesting trend recently. Apple is thought to be quite innovative in adding new technology to their devices, but recently they have been far from first with new technologies, which must be taking the wind out of Job's sails a bit when he does his keynote. They were widely expected to be first with LED back lights, and were not, they were widely expected to be first with Solid state Disks, and were not, they have not yet shown a laptop with 3G data connection, the Apple faithful are still fantasizing about a tablet PC, of course the Iphone does not have 3G itself, some-one else released the 16GB flash-based music player etc.
Now I know you might say Apple isn't first, they just do it the best, but that has not been how they have been perceived recently. An example is Archie's Zirconium Iphone shell, the apparent 1.2 Ghz ARM processor in the Iphone, and Archie's firm expectation that the Iphone will have a software radio. In actual fact they are really slipping up on that now on that front.
Your data above basically says Apple is in the same niche market as the smartphone OEM's, which is not the greatest place to be in the giant European cellphone market.
- 05-16-2007, 10:51 AM #52
I know it's your wont to post negative things about Apple, but do really not think that being ahead of established players like RIM, HP and Palm when they haven't sold a single phone yet is pretty remarkable? Apple have close to 50% of European iPod users and 20% of those who don't have an iPod saying they're likely to consider Apple for their next phone. We can guess at the reasons for this, the fact iPod users are more likely than non-users hints at a couple, but that's not the story here. The story is the numbers.
- 05-16-2007, 11:26 AM #53
- 05-16-2007, 12:58 PM #54
- 05-16-2007, 01:08 PM #55
- 05-16-2007, 01:18 PM #56
- 05-16-2007, 01:47 PM #57
Of course what really matters is how this translates into sales. Here are the most relevant numbers I could find ('smart mobile devices' for whole EMEA, Q3 2006):
Nokia 5.5 million, 75.2%
HTC 0.30 million, 4.1%
RIM 0.25 million, 3.5%
Sony Ericsson 0.22 million, 3.0%
HP 0.19 million, 2.5%
Care to have a stab at where Apple will be in that list in a years' time?
- 05-16-2007, 02:09 PM #58
Forget the hype for now, there are people who are going to buy this thing @ launch FOR SURE. The bottom line is user opinion, if this thing gets bad reviews/ bugs found right away, Apple will have a problem. Everyone is interested in it, which IS EXPECTED since most of us own Ipods AND phones, who wouldn't be interested in a 2-for1 device? But those numbers are misleading, and they should have also asked something like this:
"Are you going to buy the iPhone right away, or wait a few days for user opinions?" And...
"If user reviews are highly unfavorable, will you still buy the phone or will you do more research?"
Everyone is intrigued by this phone. But not all are going to go run and buy one without finding out a little more about it first.
- 05-16-2007, 03:26 PM #59
Also you seem impressed by people saying they will buy it. Talk is cheap, but if the unsubsidized price is £300 (and Apple refuses a subsidy as they did with Cingular) I doubt this will translate as readily to real sales.
- 05-16-2007, 05:44 PM #60
- 05-16-2007, 05:55 PM #61
Also, as yourself this. Do you expect the IPhone to sell to the smartphone market, or the phone poseur market?
- 05-16-2007, 06:23 PM #62
- 05-16-2007, 06:37 PM #63
Interesting to try to think of bad user experiences that could kill the iPhone. Here are just a few that come to mind:
1) Most people find they really can't get by without physical number keys and/or the touch-based UI (incl. the QWERTY) turns out to be tricky.
2) In reality it's not half as pretty as it looks in the pictures.
3) When they actually hold it people think it's too big.
4) It's buggy, unstable, perhaps dropping calls or having other functions that just don't work as expected or it crashes.
5) It breaks.
6) It has poor voice quality.
7) It has bad battery life.
8) It has poor music quality.
9) The screen scratches easily.
10) It's slippery.
Etc, etc. Mostly stuff that's true of any device like this. At this point (as I was saying above) things seem to be going pretty well for Apple. They've designed a device that (on paper at least) people seem to like and say they want to buy. It's perhaps a little trite to say all they need to do now is deliver, but certainly they do need to do that, and that's no small task. Apple of course have lots of expertise in designing electronic devices and OSs that go on them, but on the other hand this is a first gen device and their first phone. I suspect they will get it more-or-less right, but given the level of hype and anticipation, the capacity for (perceived) failure really is quite huge.
- 05-16-2007, 07:55 PM #64
Widgets, 3rd party apps, they all remain to be seen. Supposedly there's a hold 'em "widget" that will be on the iphone? Sounds like a 3rd party app to me...
I will re-check the office viewers, but I thought I read that it had a viewer but you could not edit. I'll check that..
- 05-17-2007, 01:22 AM #65
- 05-20-2007, 08:32 PM #66
Unless the iPhone booms out of the gate, it will be considered a bust, given all the hype.
Let's see what wins out:
In the light corner, the "coolness" of Apple, fanboys, and earlier adopters.
In the dark corner:
- Non-user replaceable battery
- Stinkular service
- $500 pricetag
- no 3rd party apps
- EDGE - no 3G
- no expansion port
I guess we will see in a month...
- 05-21-2007, 04:21 AM #67
- 05-21-2007, 10:03 AM #68
This buildup is similar to what the palm fanboys were hyping up the treo 600 to be before it arrived, remember?
Look, there are going to be palm fanboys, apple fanboys, yankee fanboys and boston fanboys. Each is going to say the other is a total and utter disaster, an absolute failure just waiting to happen. All that is just preposterous nonsense.
The iphone is going to do very, very well, despite all these naysaying crystal ballers here. There will ALWAYS be room for improvement, as each newtreo CLEARLY shows us EVERY SINGLE YEAR, but on the whole the iphone will be a big success, despite anything others here try to say to the contrary.
So sit back, relax, and watch as the iphone takes the mobile phone industry by storm....
Let the countdown begin....
- 05-21-2007, 10:45 AM #69
The question is just that, will it be a big success, despite the HUGE price tag even for new contracts. LOWEST price is like 500 bucks for the 8 GB, no? Or 600? I don't even remember.
There is no question that the PS3 is the best gaming system out there right now, as far as performance. But lack of games and huge price tag have made PS3 sales embarassing. Compare the two, PS3 vs iPhone:
Huge price vs huge price
no games vs lack of 3rd party apps
It is very possible that after the initial hype the iphone will not be a success. I'm not saying it will happen, but it very well could....
- 05-21-2007, 11:12 AM #70
- 05-21-2007, 11:59 AM #71
As technology becomes more mainstream, demand goes up...manufacturing costs go down. Then it becomes widely adopted and everyone is happy.
If I buy an LCD HDTV today I mostly certainly paid less for it now than I did 3 years ago (or even 6 months ago).
Smart-devices are the same, the trend is for those prices to drop not rise. The new Palm 755p is only $279.
The Motorola Q and Samsung Blackjack are both $79.99!
iPhone = $599.
That's a huge difference and you even loose broadband. Yikes. Sure the iPhone has some newer technology in it...but it's still just a fancy phone that plays music, that's it. Is it worth the $500 increase? We'll have to see.
Your argument is extremely poor.
- 05-21-2007, 12:21 PM #72
Besides, the smartphone market was very young back then, and I believe if you wanted the best flip phones (v60, etc) they would run you 2-300 bucks, 4-5 without contract. Man that was a long time ago.
- 05-21-2007, 01:28 PM #73
- 05-21-2007, 02:55 PM #74
- 05-21-2007, 06:01 PM #75
There will also be some treo users making the switchover to the iphone.
The business iphone may very well be the next incarnation or generation following this one. I'd be fairly certain you'll see ev-do or wimax onboard those devices in that series. We will see.
The business smart iphone. Whether or not apple encroaches on that end of the market depends on how their devices pass on battery life, ease of data input, stability, PIM apps, etc.
Apple will capture the attention of consumers: ipod users as well as some business users with the first iphone. Building upon that success, apple will gradually expand their appeal to other areas of the market.