Apple iPhone Will Fail in a Late, Defensive Move: Matthew Lynn
Yeesh. As much praise initially there is a heck of a back-lash coming out now. Lots of ink being spilled on this phone, that's for sure.
Take it for what it's worth as we won't really know anything about this for quite some time...
"Few products have been launched with such a blizzard of publicity as Apple Inc.'s iPhone.
To its many fans, Apple is more of a religious cult than a company. An iToaster that downloads music while toasting bread would probably get the same kind of worldwide attention.
Don't let that fool you into thinking that it matters. The big competitors in the mobile-phone industry such as Nokia Oyj and Motorola Inc. won't be whispering nervously into their clamshells over a new threat to their business.
The iPhone is nothing more than a luxury bauble that will appeal to a few gadget freaks. In terms of its impact on the industry, the iPhone is less relevant. ..."
- 01-16-2007, 05:02 PM #2
- 01-16-2007, 05:18 PM #3
I too can admit that this phone has generated more hype than any phone I have ever seen. The Q had crazy hype also, but nowhere near this.
I also think that this is the PSP of smartphones (someone alluded to this earlier). High price, looks great, doesn't sell as much as estimated. I own a PSP, am in the process of selling it, but I have nothing bad to say about the darn thing.
I think it's clear that the percent of the cell phone market that purchase phones that are >500.00 is noticeably smaller than the sub-500 market. And that market mostly consists of businesses. Apple is going to have to re-define the market with this phone to get the numbers they are looking for. And since "most" who would buy this phone already owns an ipod, what justification do they have to buy it? Sell your ipod that you paid 300 bucks for, then buy this 500 dollar ipod/phone? Use both? That's quite a multimedia investment to make! If Jobs does hit the numbers he projects, I will have to give him credit. It won't be easy...
- 01-16-2007, 05:33 PM #4
- 01-16-2007, 05:44 PM #5
- 01-16-2007, 05:48 PM #6
- 01-16-2007, 06:07 PM #7iPhone Nanite
- 1 Posts
hmmm.. well now it looks like will be out done by its own release(or lack of) .. you make a great point about people getting rid of there $300.ipod to get a $500. phone now that people have come off the iphone HIGH .but ill bet you if the phone would have been released when announced that iphone high would have clearly clouded that kind off thinking
- 01-16-2007, 06:19 PM #8
i think some research analysts are calling for 10mm unit sales.....not a ton but not a small amount either.
hec, the 680 was just as hyped...i remember seeing cnet videos of the product designer going over it, "i want i want i want" coming from many other posters on this board. this is a different hype because it's Apple speaking and not palm....two very different pockets, one much more deep than the other.
can't blame them for marketing it, it's what good businesses do regardless of the product at hand.
10 million units for 2008 is Apple's goal not any analysts' predictions.
As far as hype, I don't recall seeing Colbert or Conan O'Brian mocking the 680 (or any new cell phone), or seeing "news" reports on CNN, MSNBC, Bloomberg, etc. It's in the consumer culture now.
Practically everyone knows about the iPhone. The fact that Apple just did their annual fancy announcement and everyone else just ran with the story (including here: this is Treocentral with now 88+ threads on the topic) goes to show you how pervasive they are.
- 01-16-2007, 08:05 PM #10
Well i don't think it will fail as such but I doubt it'll be as revolutionary as it's being predicted either....the sony walkman was revolutionary before the apple ipod but ppl have forgotten what one looks like!!
....who defines revolutionary anyway? If half the world buys it I guess it will have......
- 01-16-2007, 08:33 PM #11
It's a business website and this falls under the "Opinion" section written from an analyst making predictions on what he thinks how the iPhone will affect the market.
Simple as that but it states it his opinion clearly on it, not fact.
- 01-16-2007, 09:10 PM #13
and what did these very folks say about the treo 300, 600 or 650 when they were released?
do you think it was any different?
you have stock market bulls and you have stock market bears..
its the same thing with those who hype products such as the iphone. what else is new? we'll only really know the true story when the thing makes its debut. period.
- 01-16-2007, 09:31 PM #15
- 01-16-2007, 09:51 PM #16
Unnecessary Apple bashing. You can just tell he dislikes Apple!
But this is spot on!
"The price and the e-mail features make it look like a business product. But Apple is a consumer company. Will your accounts department stump up for a fancy new handset just so you can listen to Eminem on your way to a business meeting?"
I also agree that the iPhone probably won't unseat Nokia!
The rest of his report, I discard due to Apple bashing.
- 01-16-2007, 10:18 PM #17
6 months....Yes, precisely!!! Who knows? Apple has a reputation for under promising and over delivering. We might be surprised to see how this iPhone is morphed into something better what was shown at MacWorld.
In another thread, I learned something from one of the pundits of iPhone, but it did not detract from my interest in a truly unique device integrates so many great technologies in one phone. Also, props to the Nokia N95. I want to look at this phone closely when it comes. It's got a lot of good technology integrated in it as well.
- 01-16-2007, 10:24 PM #18
Stock market bears are notorious for spreading negativity and misleading prognostications about stocks like AAPL whose performances can move the market one way or the other!!! Their goal is to try to instigate selloffs. they want to increase their stakes in a strong company`s stock, to artificially create a cheaper entry point for themselves! As a bear in a bull market, its basically their job to do this. Unethical? yes, but thats wall street, baby. Im not saying he`s lying for certain, but its always a possiblity with analysts.
You ALWAYS have to take what they say with a grain of salt, and particularly when they are commenting on a product which hasnt even arrived yet.
- 01-16-2007, 10:32 PM #19
I have a PSP, 80G iPod and a 700p. Would I get the iPhone if Sprint offered it, YEP! Simply because I'd just want one, I don't think I have to have it. As with most of the gadgets I own, I bought them for the want factor and not the hype associated with them.
I don't want the iPhone bad enough to leave Sprint and go to Cingular.
- 01-16-2007, 10:40 PM #20
I didn't mean to imply that you might be positioning it as fact. It is certainly an opinion although as an analyst it should carry more than an opinion but a market projection. I think that unless the analyst has experience with the product or hard facts to support their position, then it has little relevance. I do think six months matter since a.) it's clear not all things are in stone yet, there is likely to be some flux in the feature set. It's likely to include some things not talked about at the keynote. b.) There could be other factors (economy, competitors) affecting the market by that time.
What I find facinating in all these reviews is the things they miss. Nobody ever seems to mention that I need to spend $300 to get a video iPod. So would I spend $600 to get a video iPod and a phone along with basically a small tablet for surfing websites over wifi? Many certainly won't, but I think quite a few will. I guess we will know once it launches. Until then it's pretty much useless speculation until someone comes out with some new facts.
Well, I'm not exactly saying I agree or disagree with him but what I did like about the article is it's one of the few that talks about other things besides the functions of the phone (which is not out yet, obviously):
So he has 3 major reasons he doesn't see the iPhone as having a huge of an impact on the industry as others:
1) First, Apple is late to this party...
2) Network Opposition...(you have to play by Apple's rules)
3) The iPhone is a defensive product...
#1 is obvious: there's upwards of 850 million cell phones out there and Apple is just jumping in, so obviously instead of defining the field, it has to re-define. It's a challenge, no doubt and not the best of positions to be in.
I think #2 is true too not that it can't be different here but lets face it: Apple sets very high standards for its products and does not like to compromise or negotiate with other companies that might not "get" what they want to do.
It's a double-edged sword: great products but tough to market. Plus, as the article points out, Nokia etc. will cut special deals with the companies to keep Apple out.
#3 was really the only surprise for myself. I never thought about it but it is true that more and more mobile phones are doing the "Music" thing (Sayno, M1 1gb for $199 on Sprint is getting there, Nokia already has a bunch. Not that they are in the same league as the iPhone, but you get the idea).
Do music-phones cut into iPods revenue? Would people move more and more to them as memory increases? Maybe. I think in a year or two, everyone will be offering 4 or 8gb of flash storage in phones and yes, eventually had Apple not done anything, they would really be on the defensive as the iPod lost ground.
So I thought that was an interesting notion and some points that are just spot on.
Now, will Apple "...sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."
Who knows at this point but obviously this guy thinks not.
- 01-17-2007, 07:03 AM #22
- 01-17-2007, 08:29 AM #23
- 01-17-2007, 08:42 AM #24
I have never seen in all my years people get as defensive as they do if anybody says anything negative about this phone. Some people cant seem to compute that without some of the features that we "smartphone fanatics" have grown accustomed to, the iPhone is just a glorified ipod.
Without Exchange Direct Push, I cant get access to my corporate email. Do I need to carry two phones with me then? I also rely on IM services to communicate with clients, do I need to change the way I work because Steve Jobs doesnt think I need it.
People, this phone is really pretty, but its clearly not for everybody.
- 01-17-2007, 09:11 AM #25