Well, I'm not exactly saying I agree or disagree with him but what I did like about the article is it's one of the few that talks about other things besides the functions of the phone (which is not out yet, obviously):
So he has 3 major reasons he doesn't see the iPhone as having a huge of an impact on the industry as others:
1) First, Apple is late to this party...
2) Network Opposition...(you have to play by Apple's rules)
3) The iPhone is a defensive product...
#1 is obvious: there's upwards of 850 million cell phones out there and Apple is just jumping in, so obviously instead of defining the field, it has to re-define. It's a challenge, no doubt and not the best of positions to be in.
I think #2 is true too not that it can't be different here but lets face it: Apple sets very high standards for its products and does not like to compromise or negotiate with other companies that might not "get" what they want to do.
It's a double-edged sword: great products but tough to market. Plus, as the article points out, Nokia etc. will cut special deals with the companies to keep Apple out.
#3 was really the only surprise for myself. I never thought about it but it is true that more and more mobile phones are doing the "Music" thing (Sayno, M1 1gb for $199 on Sprint is getting there, Nokia already has a bunch. Not that they are in the same league as the iPhone, but you get the idea).
Do music-phones cut into iPods revenue? Would people move more and more to them as memory increases? Maybe. I think in a year or two, everyone will be offering 4 or 8gb of flash storage in phones and yes, eventually had Apple not done anything, they would really be on the defensive as the iPod lost ground.
So I thought that was an interesting notion and some points that are just spot on.
Now, will Apple "...sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."
Who knows at this point but obviously this guy thinks not.
So he has 3 major reasons he doesn't see the iPhone as having a huge of an impact on the industry as others:
1) First, Apple is late to this party...
2) Network Opposition...(you have to play by Apple's rules)
3) The iPhone is a defensive product...
#1 is obvious: there's upwards of 850 million cell phones out there and Apple is just jumping in, so obviously instead of defining the field, it has to re-define. It's a challenge, no doubt and not the best of positions to be in.
I think #2 is true too not that it can't be different here but lets face it: Apple sets very high standards for its products and does not like to compromise or negotiate with other companies that might not "get" what they want to do.
It's a double-edged sword: great products but tough to market. Plus, as the article points out, Nokia etc. will cut special deals with the companies to keep Apple out.
#3 was really the only surprise for myself. I never thought about it but it is true that more and more mobile phones are doing the "Music" thing (Sayno, M1 1gb for $199 on Sprint is getting there, Nokia already has a bunch. Not that they are in the same league as the iPhone, but you get the idea).
Do music-phones cut into iPods revenue? Would people move more and more to them as memory increases? Maybe. I think in a year or two, everyone will be offering 4 or 8gb of flash storage in phones and yes, eventually had Apple not done anything, they would really be on the defensive as the iPod lost ground.
So I thought that was an interesting notion and some points that are just spot on.
Now, will Apple "...sell a few to its fans, but the iPhone won't make a long-term mark on the industry."
Who knows at this point but obviously this guy thinks not.